Duncan Smith rejects evidence-based policy: "I believe this to be true"

There's no evidence for his claim that 8,000 people moved into work as a result of the benefit cap but he "believes" it regardless.

I've already told you five things Iain Duncan Smith doesn't want you to know about the benefit cap (which is introduced nationally today), but I couldn't allow his egregious interview on the Today progamme this morning to pass without comment. 

Early on in his duel with John Humphrys, the Work and Pensions Secretary declared that the homelessness figures had "hardly moved". The reality? Homelessness in England is up by 27 per cent since the government came to power in 2010. 

Later challenged over his claim that 8,000 people moved into work as a result of the benefit cap (a statement that the UK Statistics Authority said was "unsupported by the official statistics"), Duncan Smith decided to dispense with any pretence of evidence-based policy. "I believe this to be true!" he cried, demonstrating the same faith-based approach that led George Osborne to believe that cutting public spending in the middle of a slump would lead to higher growth.

He told Humphrys:

The reality is, I believe that to be right. I believe that we are already seeing people go back to work, who were not going to go back to work until they were assured of the cap.

Any remaining ambition that David Cameron had to lead the "the most open and transparent government in the world" finally died with those words. 

P.S. In an apparent fulfilment of his prophecy that "too many tweets might make a twat", David Cameron tweeted this morning.

We're rolling out a cap on Benefits today - @IDS_MP and I are determined to make work pay, and help the UK compete on the #GlobalRace.

— David Cameron (@David_Cameron) July 15, 2013

Unfortunately for Cameron, @IDS_MP is not, as he thought, the Work and Pensions Secretary but a spoof account whose recent tweets include "I've always supported a Mansion Tax. Your Tax buys my Mansion. Chin chin!" and "A thrifty way to keep cool in this heat wave is to dab the ice from your Champagne bucket onto your forehead."

Iain Duncan Smith arrives for a cabinet meeting at 10 Downing Street. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Vince Cable will need something snappier than a graduate tax to escape tuition fees

Perhaps he's placing his hopes in the “Anti Brexit People’s Liberation Front.” 

“We took power, and we got crushed,” Tim Farron said in what would turn out to be his final Autumn conference as Liberal Democrat leader, before hastening on to talk about Brexit and the need for a strong opposition.

A year and a snap election later, Vince Cable, the Lib Dem warhorse-turned-leader and the former Coalition business secretary, had plenty of cracks about Brexit.

He called for a second referendum – or what he dubbed a “first referendum on the facts” – and joked that he was “half prepared for a spell in a cell with Supreme Court judges, Gina Miller, Ken Clarke, and the governors of the BBC” for suggesting it".

Lib Dems, he suggested, were the “political adults” in the room, while Labour sat on the fence. Unlike Farron, however, he did not rule out the idea of working with Jeremy Corbyn, and urged "grown ups" in other parties to put aside their differences. “Jeremy – join us in the Anti Brexit People’s Liberation Front,” he said. The Lib Dems had been right on Iraq, and would be proved right on Brexit, he added. 

But unlike Farron, Cable revisited his party’s time in power.

“In government, we did a lot of good and we stopped a lot of bad,” he told conference. “Don’t let the Tories tell you that they lifted millions of low-earners out of income tax. We did… But we have paid a very high political price.”

Cable paid the price himself, when he lost his Twickenham seat in 2015, and saw his former Coalition colleague Nick Clegg turfed out of student-heavy Sheffield Hallam. However much the Lib Dems might wish it away, the tuition fees debate is here to stay, aided by some canny Labour manoeuvring, and no amount of opposition to Brexit will hide it.

“There is an elephant in the room,” the newly re-established MP for Twickenham said in his speech. “Debt – specifically student debt.” He defended the policy (he chose to vote for it in 2010, rather than abstain) for making sure universities were properly funded, but added: “Just because the system operates like a tax, we cannot escape the fact it isn’t seen as one.” He is reviewing options for the future, including a graduate tax. But students are unlikely to be cheering for a graduate tax when Labour is pledging to scrap tuition fees altogether.

There lies Cable’s challenge. Farron may have stepped down a week after the election declaring himself “torn” between religion and party, but if he had stayed, he would have had to face the fact that voters were happier to nibble Labour’s Brexit fudge (with lashings of free tuition fees), than choose a party on pure Remain principles alone.

“We are not a single-issue party…we’re not Ukip in reverse,” Cable said. “I see our future as a party of government.” In which case, the onus is on him to come up with something more inspiring than a graduate tax.

Julia Rampen is the digital news editor of the New Statesman (previously editor of The Staggers, The New Statesman's online rolling politics blog). She has also been deputy editor at Mirror Money Online and has worked as a financial journalist for several trade magazines.