A make or break moment for Egypt's President Morsi

The first anniversary of the president's inauguration is expected to spark nationwide protests. The grassroots campaign Tamarod aims to secure enough signatures to a vote-of-no-confidence petition to outweigh the 13 million votes that brought Morsi into p

Egypt is steeling itself in the run-up to nationwide protests against beleaguered President Mohamed Morsi on the first anniversary of his inauguration.

Sunday's demonstrations, which organisers claim will "make or break" the Muslim Brotherhood president, are spearheaded by a grassroots campaign Tamarod, meaning "rebel". It aims to secure enough signatures to a vote-of-no-confidence petition to outweigh the 13 million votes that brought Morsi into power.

Tamarod say they have already collected at least 18 million, and will present them to Morsi.

As tensions rise, rumours abound that the army may intervene, just one year after handing power to a civilian chief.  Defense Minster Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi cryptically said Sunday that the military "stayed out of political matters" but has a duty to "prevent Egypt slipping into a dark tunnel."

Meanwhile the police, historically hostile to the Brotherhood, vowed to protect state institutions but not the group's headquarters, which have recently been targeted in firebomb attacks.

Tamarod spokesperson Eman El-Haghy tells the New Statesman confidently that they will call on the head of the Constituent Assembly to be interim president. "The president has dragged our country backwards… he has not fulfilled the revolution's goals."

Tamarod say political forces will choose a transitional president and technocratic government to draft a constitution before elections: a tough call for an opposition that critics say hasn't united around anything except dislike of the Brotherhood.

Nevertheless the mounting anger against Morsi is significant.

"I don't think it gets more serious than this," says Hisham Hellyer, Cairo-based non-resident fellow at the Brookings Institute.

"He doesn’t have even have a monopoly on the Islamist trend, the different [ultraconservative] Salafi parties are not deserting him but they are getting there. The more left-leaning Islamist parties are joining protests."

Certainly the non-Islamist faction who backed Morsi during elections - largely to block his rival, Mubarak-era minister Ahmed Shafiq - are now organising demonstrations.  The National Salvation Front, Egypt's largest opposition bloc, has meanwhile rejected any dialogue.

Protesters are demanding "bread, freedom and social justice," the same grievances they voiced during the revolution.

Egypt suffers from a flailing economy; bread, water and fuel crises; and a brutal police force which hasn't been held to account. Many say the recently-ratified Constitution was hastily drafted by an Islamist-dominated assembly.

Basic rights continue to be violated.

According to Human Rights Watch, bloggers and journalists are increasingly being prosecuted for "insulting" officials. State torture remains endemic; defamation and blasphemy prosecutions are increasing.

"The economy is not doing well," says Ahmed Galal, Director of Cairo-based Economic Research Forum.  "The budget deficit is growing, and there is sluggish economic growth at a time of growing unemployment."

Continued unrest and no political consensus means foreign investment has dried up, Galal adds. "Most of Egypt's economic problems would be resolved if a political settlement is reached." Something Morsi has yet to do.

Hellyer says the president also picked fights with institutions like the interior ministry and judiciary "without correct political support."

One embarrassing example was when the High Constitutional Court rejected the electoral law last month, meaning Egypt won't have a parliament until 2014, even though the president had already called elections.

Morsi himself faces direct judicial challenges: Shafiq is appealing the results of last year's presidential poll.

Even the Brotherhood admits expectations have not been met.

"The first year has been much more troublesome than we had expected," says Gehad El-Haddad, an advisor to the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party, adding that the government's performance has not been "optimum".

State institutions, El-Haddad says, are the problem. "They are unprofessional and corrupt and actually challenge the president's initiatives."

El-Haddad also maintains that the media distort Morsi's record. Despite the hype, he believes there isn't widespread demand for Morsi's resignation.

Hellyer says Sunday's protests, if successful, are dangerous. "The propensity for violence would increase. It's very bad for the story for Egyptian democracy, as it says that government can be thrown out after a year."

"The only way Morsi leaves is by the military forcing him out, which involves violence and social disorder." Clashes have already broken out in several governorates in the lead up.

Activists maintain they will keep their protests peaceful with marches "with people holding whistles and red cards to signify that it is game over," El-Haghy explains. There will also be protests outside Egyptian embassies in cities around the world - including New York and London.

"We told the world that 30 June, the day we gave him our vote, will be the day we withdraw our confidence."

Whether Morsi will exit the pitch early remains to be seen. 

A protest artist paints Tamarod or "Rebel" graffiti in downtown Cairo ahead of anniversary demos against the president. Photograph: Gregg Carlstrom
Getty.
Show Hide image

Who is the EU's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier?

The former French foreign minister has shown signs that he will play hardball in negotiations.

The European Commission’s chief Brexit negotiator today set an October 2018 deadline for the terms of Britain’s divorce from the European Union to be agreed. Michel Barnier gave his first press conference since being appointed to head up what will be tough talks between the EU and UK.

Speaking in Brussels, he warned that UK-EU relations had entered “uncharted waters”. He used the conference to effectively shorten the time period for negotiations under Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the legal process to take Britain out of the EU. The article sets out a two year period for a country to leave the bloc.

But Barnier, 65, warned that the period of actual negotiations would be shorter than two years and there would be less than 18 months to agree Brexit.  If the terms were set in October 2018, there would be five months for the European Parliament, European Council and UK Parliament to approve the deal before a March 2019 Brexit.

But who is the urbane Frenchman who was handpicked by Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker to steer the talks?

A centre-right career politician, Barnier is a member of the pan-EU European People’s Party, like Juncker and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

A committed European and architect of closer eurozone banking integration, Barnier rose to prominence after being elected aged just 27 to the French National Assembly.  He is notorious in Brussels for his repeated references to the 1992 Winter Olympics he organised in Albertville with triple Olympic ski champion Jean-Claude Killy.

He first joined the French cabinet in 1993 as minister of the environment. In 1995, Jacques Chirac made him Secretary of State for European Affairs, teeing up a long and close relationship with Brussels.

Barnier has twice served as France’s European Commissioner, under the administrations of Romano Prodi and José Manuel BarrosoMost recently he was serving as an unpaid special advisor on European Defence Policy to Juncker until the former prime minister of Luxembourg made him Brexit boss.“I wanted an experienced politician for this difficult job,” Juncker said at the time of Barnier, who has supported moves towards an EU army.

 

Barnier and the Brits

Barnier’s appointment was controversial. Under Barroso, he was Internal Market commissioner. Responsible for financial services legislation at the height of the crisis, he clashed with the City of London.

During this period he was memorably described as a man who, in a hall of mirrors, would stop and check his reflection in every one.

Although his battles with London’s bankers were often exaggerated, the choice of Barnier was described as an “act of war” by some British journalists and was greeted with undisguised glee by Brussels europhiles.

Barnier moved to calm those fears today. At the press conference, he said, “I was 20 years old, a very long time ago, when I voted for the first time and it was in the French referendum on the accession of the UK to the EU.

“That time I campaigned for a yes vote. And I still think today that I made right choice.”

But Barnier, seen by some as aloof and arrogant, also showed a mischievous side.  It was reported during Theresa May’s first visit to Brussels as prime minister that he was demanding that all the Brexit talks be conducted in French.

While Barnier does speak English, he is far more comfortable talking in his native French. But the story, since denied, was seen as a snub to the notoriously monolingual Brits.

The long lens photo of a British Brexit strategy note that warned the EU team was “very French” may also have been on his mind as he took the podium in Brussels today.

Barnier asked, “In French or in English?” to laughter from the press.

He switched between English and French in his opening remarks but only answered questions in French, using translation to ensure he understood the questions.

Since his appointment Barnier has posted a series of tweets which could be seen as poking fun at Brexit. On a tour of Croatia to discuss the negotiations, he posed outside Zagreb’s Museum of Broken Relationships asking, “Guess where we are today?”

 

 

He also tweeted a picture of himself drinking prosecco after Boris Johnson sparked ridicule by telling an Italian economics minister his country would have to offer the UK tariff-free trade to sell the drink in Britain.

But Barnier can also be tough. He forced through laws to regulate every financial sector, 40 pieces of legislation in four years, when he was internal market commissioner, in the face of sustained opposition from industry and some governments.

He warned today, "Being a member of the EU comes with rights and benefits. Third countries [the UK] can never have the same rights and benefits since they are not subject to same obligations.”

On the possibility of Britain curbing free movement of EU citizens and keeping access to the single market, he was unequivocal.

“The single market and four freedoms are indivisible. Cherry-picking is not an option,” he said.

He stressed that his priority in the Brexit negotiations would be the interests of the remaining 27 member states of the European Union, not Britain.

“Unity is the strength of the EU and President Juncker and I are determined to preserve the unity and interest of the EU-27 in the Brexit negotiations.”

In a thinly veiled swipe at the British, again greeted with laughter in the press room, he told reporters, “It is much better to show solidarity than stand alone. I repeat, it is much better to show solidarity than stand alone”.

Referring to the iconic British poster that urged Brits to "Keep Calm and Carry On” during World War Two, he today told reporters, “We are ready. Keep calm and negotiate.”

But Barnier’s calm in the face of the unprecedented challenge to the EU posed by Brexit masks a cold determination to defend the European project at any cost.

James Crisp is the news editor at EurActiv, an online EU news service.