UKIP shows strength ahead of local elections

Nigel Farage's party is fielding a record 1,734 candidates, just 22 fewer than the Lib Dems.

After ceasing hostilities following Margaret Thatcher's death, the parties have resumed campaigning for next month's local elections (now less than three weeks away), with the Conservatives releasing a new Party Political Broadcast today. 

The full list of candidates was published earlier this week but, for obvious reasons, received little attention, so here it is. 

Total for England - 2,360 seats

Con 2,258 95.7% (per cent of seats contested)
Lab 2,174 92.1%
Lib Dem 1,756 74.4%
UKIP 1,734 73.5%
Green 882 37.3%
Independent 648 27.5%
Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 119 5.0%
BNP 101 4.3%
English Democrats 38 1.6%
Others 126

The most notable thing about the list is the number of UKIP candidates. Aided by a string of former Conservative donors, the party is fielding candidates in nearly three quarters of the seats, just short of the total for the Lib Dems. In the last three months, UKIP has gained more than 30 councillors through Tory defections and by-elections and is confident of a strong performance on 2 May.

The Conservatives, who currently control 29 of the 34 county councils and unitary authorities up for grabs, are already preparing for heavy losses. The seats were last contested in 2009, shortly after the expenses scandal broke, when Labour was at its lowest ebb. The party received just 23 per cent of the vote, compared to 28 per cent for the Lib Dems and 38 per cent for the Tories. As a result, there is strong potential for the Conservative vote to unwind in Labour and UKIP's favour. Miliband's party is hoping to win control in Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire and Lancashire, while the Lib Dems hope to regain control of Somerset and Devon. 

The other notable thing about the candidates list is the dramatic decline in BNP representation. After fielding 450 candidates in 2009, the party is standing just 101 this time round. Indeed, for the first time in recent history, a far-left party (the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) will be better represented than Griffin's mob. 

UKIP party leader Nigel Farage speaks at the party's 2013 Spring Conference in the Great Hall, Exeter University. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Getty
Show Hide image

Metro mayors can help Labour return to government

Labour champions in the new city regions can help their party at the national level too.

2017 will mark the inaugural elections of directly-elected metro mayors across England. In all cases, these mayor and cabinet combined authorities are situated in Labour heartlands, and as such Labour should look confidently at winning the whole slate.

Beyond the good press winning again will generate, these offices provide an avenue for Labour to showcase good governance, and imperatively, provide vocal opposition to the constraints of local government by Tory cuts.

The introduction of the Mayor of London in 2000 has provided a blueprint for how the media can provide a platform for media-friendly leadership. It has also demonstrated the ease that the office allows for attribution of successes to that individual and party – or misappropriated in context of Boris Bikes and to a lesser extent the London Olympics.

While without the same extent of the powers of the sui generis mayor of the capital, the prospect of additional metro-mayors provide an opportunity for replicating these successes while providing experience for Labour big-hitters to develop themselves in government. This opportunity hasn’t gone unnoticed, and after Sadiq Khan’s victory in London has shown that the role can grow beyond the limitations – perceived or otherwise - of the Corbyn shadow cabinet while strengthening team Labour’s credibility by actually being in power.

Shadow Health Secretary and former leadership candidate Andy Burnham’s announcement last week for Greater Manchester was the first big hitter to make his intention known. The rising star of Luciana Berger, another member of Labour’s health team, is known to be considering a run in the Liverpool City Region. Could we also see them joined by the juggernaut of Liam Byrne in the West Midlands, or next-generation Catherine McKinnell in the North East?

If we can get a pantheon of champions elected across these city regions, to what extent can this have an influence on national elections? These new metro areas represent around 11.5 million people, rising to over 20 million if you include Sadiq’s Greater London. While no doubt that is an impressive audience that our Labour pantheon are able to demonstrate leadership to, there are limitations. 80 of the 94 existing Westminster seats who are covered under the jurisdiction of the new metro-mayors are already Labour seats. While imperative to solidify our current base for any potential further electoral decline, in order to maximise the impact that this team can have on Labour’s resurgence there needs to be visibility beyond residents.

The impact of business is one example where such influence can be extended. Andy Burnham for example has outlined his case to make Greater Manchester the creative capital of the UK. According to the ONS about 150,000 people commute into Greater Manchester, which is two constituency’s worth of people that can be directly influenced by the Mayor of Greater Manchester.

Despite these calculations and similar ones that can be made in other city-regions, the real opportunity with selecting the right Labour candidates is the media impact these champion mayors can make on the national debate. This projects the influence from the relatively-safe Labour regions across the country. This is particularly important to press the blame of any tightening of belts in local fiscal policy on the national Tory government’s cuts. We need individuals who have characteristics of cabinet-level experience, inspiring leadership, high profile campaigning experience and tough talking opposition credentials to support the national party leadership put the Tory’s on the narrative back foot.

That is not to say there are not fine local council leaders and technocrats who’s experience and governance experience at vital to Labour producing local successes. But the media don’t really care who number two is, and these individuals are best serving the national agenda for the party if they support A-listers who can shine a bright spotlight on our successes and Tory mismanagement.

If Jeremy Corbyn and the party are able to topple the Conservatives come next election, then all the better that we have a diverse team playing their part both on the front bench and in the pantheon of metro-mayors. If despite our best efforts Jeremy’s leadership falls short, then we will have experienced leaders in waiting who have been able to afford some distance from the front-bench, untainted and able to take the party’s plan B forward.