Osborne's run of luck continues as he dodges a triple-dip

The return of the economy to growth, however anaemic, allows the Chancellor to maintain the narrative that the UK is "healing".

George Osborne is currently enjoying that most precious of political commodities: luck. Having narrowly avoided an increase in the deficit earlier this week, the Chancellor has now dodged a triple-dip recession. The ONS's first estimate of GDP for Q1 of this year suggests that output rose by 0.3 per cent, three times greater than the 0.1 per cent forecast by most economists. 

Economically speaking, it makes little difference whether output is found to have marginally grown or marginally shrunk. The figures are revised by an average of 0.4 per cent and the economy is now merely the same size as it was six months ago. But the politics are all important. For Osborne, growth, however anaemic, allows him to maintain the narrative that the economy is "healing". Expectations have been so downgraded that any rise in output is now welcome. 

The return of the economy to growth will help the Tories to maintain the political momentum that they have enjoyed in recent weeks. At the same time, it will add to the pressure on Labour to outline a clearer alternative to the coalition's programme. Even after a double-dip recession, the loss of the UK's AAA credit rating and countless missed borrowing targets, polls show that Osborne and Cameron are still preferred as an economic team to Ed Miliband and Ed Balls. By two-to-one (59-29 per cent), the public still believe the cuts are necessary and by 36-24 per cent, they still blame the last Labour government more than the coalition for them. In the three years since the government came to power, these ratings have failed to shift in Labour's favour. This fact, combined with the prospect of a sustained period of growth, is one reason why, for the first time in months, Tory MPs are starting to believe that they can win in 2015. 

Chancellor George Osborne leaves Downing Street on April 10, 2013 in London. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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FTSE 100 plunges after Theresa May signals hard Brexit ahead

The Prime Minister is to lay out her Brexit plan later today. 

The FTSE 100 and the FTSE 250 plummeted this morning after the Prime Minister signalled Brexit will mean leaving the single market.

Theresa May is expected to rule out "partial membership" or any other kind of "half-in, half-out" deal with the EU in a speech later today.

The FTSE 100, the index of the UK's 100 biggest companies, and the FTSE 250 both fell more than 0.3 per cent immediately after opening. 

The worst performers included the housebuilder Barratt Developments, consumer goods tester Intertek and the mining company BHP.

Stock markets have been buoyant since Brexit, in part because many of Britain's biggest companies are international and benefit from a devalued pound. 

However, while markets fell, the pound crept up against the dollar, to $1.21. 

Critics of the Prime Minister say she is sacrificing the economy to prioritise immigration controls.

TUC general secretary Frances O'Grady warned: "If we leave the single market, working people will end up paying the price. It'd be bad for jobs, for work rights & for our living standards."

According to the Office for National Statistics, inflation rose from 1.2 per cent in November to 1.6 per cent in December. 

Julia Rampen is the editor of The Staggers, The New Statesman's online rolling politics blog. She was previously deputy editor at Mirror Money Online and has worked as a financial journalist for several trade magazines.