Osborne's run of luck continues as he dodges a triple-dip

The return of the economy to growth, however anaemic, allows the Chancellor to maintain the narrative that the UK is "healing".

George Osborne is currently enjoying that most precious of political commodities: luck. Having narrowly avoided an increase in the deficit earlier this week, the Chancellor has now dodged a triple-dip recession. The ONS's first estimate of GDP for Q1 of this year suggests that output rose by 0.3 per cent, three times greater than the 0.1 per cent forecast by most economists. 

Economically speaking, it makes little difference whether output is found to have marginally grown or marginally shrunk. The figures are revised by an average of 0.4 per cent and the economy is now merely the same size as it was six months ago. But the politics are all important. For Osborne, growth, however anaemic, allows him to maintain the narrative that the economy is "healing". Expectations have been so downgraded that any rise in output is now welcome. 

The return of the economy to growth will help the Tories to maintain the political momentum that they have enjoyed in recent weeks. At the same time, it will add to the pressure on Labour to outline a clearer alternative to the coalition's programme. Even after a double-dip recession, the loss of the UK's AAA credit rating and countless missed borrowing targets, polls show that Osborne and Cameron are still preferred as an economic team to Ed Miliband and Ed Balls. By two-to-one (59-29 per cent), the public still believe the cuts are necessary and by 36-24 per cent, they still blame the last Labour government more than the coalition for them. In the three years since the government came to power, these ratings have failed to shift in Labour's favour. This fact, combined with the prospect of a sustained period of growth, is one reason why, for the first time in months, Tory MPs are starting to believe that they can win in 2015. 

Chancellor George Osborne leaves Downing Street on April 10, 2013 in London. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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“I felt very lonely”: addressing the untold story of isolation among young mothers

With one in five young mothers lonely “all the time”, it’s time for employers and services to step up.

“Despite having my child with me all the time, I felt very lonely,” says Laura Davies. A member of an advisory panel for the Young Women’s Trust, she had her son age 20. Now, with a new report suggesting that one in five young mums “feels lonely all the time”, she’s sharing her story.

Polling commissioned by the Young Women’s Trust has highlighted the isolation that young motherhood can bring. Of course, getting out and about the same as you did before is never easy once there’s a young child in the picture. For young mothers, however, the situation can be particularly difficult.

According to the report, over a quarter of young mothers leave the house just once a week or less, with some leaving just once a month.

Aside from all the usual challenges – like wrestling a colicky infant into their jacket, or pumping milk for the trip with one hand while making sure no-one is crawling into anything dangerous with the other – young mothers are more likely to suffer from a lack of support network, or to lack the confidence to approach mother-baby groups and other organisations designed to help. In fact, some 68 per cent of young mothers said they had felt unwelcome in a parent and toddler group.

Davies paints what research suggests is a common picture.

“Motherhood had alienated me from my past. While all my friends were off forging a future for themselves, I was under a mountain of baby clothes trying to navigate my new life. Our schedules were different and it became hard to find the time.”

“No one ever tells you that when you have a child you will feel an overwhelming sense of love that you cannot describe, but also an overwhelming sense of loneliness when you realise that your life won’t be the same again.

More than half of 16 to 24-year-olds surveyed said that they felt lonelier since becoming a mother, with more than two-thirds saying they had fewer friends than before. Yet making new friends can be hard, too, especially given the judgement young mothers can face. In fact, 73 per cent of young mothers polled said they’d experienced rudeness or unpleasant behaviour when out with their children in public.

As Davies puts it, “Trying to find mum friends when your self-confidence is at rock bottom is daunting. I found it easier to reach out for support online than meet people face to face. Knowing they couldn’t judge me on my age gave me comfort.”

While online support can help, however, loneliness can still become a problem without friends to visit or a workplace to go to. Many young mothers said they would be pleased to go back to work – and would prefer to earn money rather than rely on benefits. After all, typing some invoices, or getting back on the tills, doesn’t just mean a paycheck – it’s also a change to speak to someone old enough to understand the words “type”, “invoice” and “till”.

As Young Women’s Trust chief executive Dr Carole Easton explains, “More support is needed for young mothers who want to work. This could include mentoring to help ease women’s move back into education or employment.”

But mothers going back to work don’t only have to grapple with childcare arrangements, time management and their own self-confidence – they also have to negotiate with employers. Although the 2003 Employment Act introduced the right for parents of young children to apply to work flexibly, there is no obligation for their employer to agree. (Even though 83 per cent of women surveyed by the Young Women’s Trust said flexible hours would help them find secure work, 26 per cent said they had had a request turned down.)

Dr Easton concludes: “The report recommends access to affordable childcare, better support for young women at job centres and advertising jobs on a flexible, part-time or job share basis by default.”

Stephanie Boland is digital assistant at the New Statesman. She tweets at @stephanieboland