Osborne's run of luck continues as he dodges a triple-dip

The return of the economy to growth, however anaemic, allows the Chancellor to maintain the narrative that the UK is "healing".

George Osborne is currently enjoying that most precious of political commodities: luck. Having narrowly avoided an increase in the deficit earlier this week, the Chancellor has now dodged a triple-dip recession. The ONS's first estimate of GDP for Q1 of this year suggests that output rose by 0.3 per cent, three times greater than the 0.1 per cent forecast by most economists. 

Economically speaking, it makes little difference whether output is found to have marginally grown or marginally shrunk. The figures are revised by an average of 0.4 per cent and the economy is now merely the same size as it was six months ago. But the politics are all important. For Osborne, growth, however anaemic, allows him to maintain the narrative that the economy is "healing". Expectations have been so downgraded that any rise in output is now welcome. 

The return of the economy to growth will help the Tories to maintain the political momentum that they have enjoyed in recent weeks. At the same time, it will add to the pressure on Labour to outline a clearer alternative to the coalition's programme. Even after a double-dip recession, the loss of the UK's AAA credit rating and countless missed borrowing targets, polls show that Osborne and Cameron are still preferred as an economic team to Ed Miliband and Ed Balls. By two-to-one (59-29 per cent), the public still believe the cuts are necessary and by 36-24 per cent, they still blame the last Labour government more than the coalition for them. In the three years since the government came to power, these ratings have failed to shift in Labour's favour. This fact, combined with the prospect of a sustained period of growth, is one reason why, for the first time in months, Tory MPs are starting to believe that they can win in 2015. 

Chancellor George Osborne leaves Downing Street on April 10, 2013 in London. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Ignoring devolved nations on Brexit "risks breaking up the UK"

Theresa May is meeting with Scottish, Northern Irish and Welsh representatives. 

The Westminster government risks the break up of the union if it tries to impose a Brexit settlement on Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, the Institute for Government has warned.

On the day Theresa May is meeting with representatives from the devolved administrations, the thinktank said there were "worrying signs" the Tories were ignoring them instead of treating them like partners. 

The Institute urged the UK government to take steps to prevent "political spats from escalating into a full-blow constitutional crisis".

It stated:

"Imposing a Brexit settlement in the absence of consent from the devolved bodies may be legally possible, given that the UK Parliament remains sovereign. 

"However, this would run contrary to convention and to the spirit of devolution, which recognises the right of the three devolved nations to determine their own
form of government. 

"It would also be a reckless strategy for a government committed to the Union, since it would seriously undermine relationships between the four governments, and increase the chances of Scottish independence and rifts in Northern Ireland’s fragile power-sharing arrangements."

Instead, Brexit ministers from the devolved nations should be represented on a specially-created committee and held jointly responsible for the outcome of talks, it recommended. The devolved nations are expected to want a softer Brexit than the one outlined so far by Westminster. 

It noted that despite the Prime Minister's commitment to developing a "UK approach" to Brexit, there are "worrying signs" that the devolved governments are being ignored.

So far key decisions, such as the deadline for triggering Article 50, have been taken by Westminster alone. Legal experts have warned a stand off between devolved authorities and Westminster could lead to a constitutional crisis.

While civil servants across the UK are now trying to work together, the Institute for Government said their ability to do so "has been hindered by lack of agreement at a political level".

A Brexit settlement could also lead to new powers for the devolved nations, the report said, such as on employment and immigration.

The report said it was likely devolved parliaments would wish to vote on any settlement.

The Scottish First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon has already threatened to hold another independence referendum if Westminster does not take account of Scottish interests, and has pledged that the SNP will vote against the Brexit bill in Parliament. 

Julia Rampen is the editor of The Staggers, The New Statesman's online rolling politics blog. She was previously deputy editor at Mirror Money Online and has worked as a financial journalist for several trade magazines.