Inequality before and after Thatcher: what really happened

Norman Lamont is wrong to suggest that inequality increased "much more" under Labour. It surged under Thatcher and rose slightly under Blair and Brown.

On last night's edition of Newsnight, Norman Lamont declared that while inequality "increased under Mrs Thatcher" it increased "much, much more" under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. It's a common claim but as the IFS graph below shows, it isn't true. It was during the Thatcher years that inequality surged before stabilising under Major and rising slightly under Labour. Under a Conservative government, less committed to redistribution, the increase would almost certainly have been far worse (not least due to the global forces pulling the rich and poor apart). 

Inequality in the UK 1979 to 2007-08

But Blair and Brown cannot be excused for their failure. Confronted by the widening gap between rich and poor, Blair would glibly remark that he didn’t go into politics "to make sure that David Beckham earns less money". Gordon Brown was less intensely relaxed about the "filthy rich" but doubted whether it was possible to significantly reduce inequality in a country that he continued to view as conservative. By contrast, Ed Miliband declared in his speech at last year's Labour conference, "I will never accept an economy where the gap between rich and poor just grows wider and wider. In one nation, in my faith, inequality matters." Whether he is able to fulfil his ambition of building a more equal society (assuming the voters give him a chance) will do much to determine whether he will prove to be a transformer in the mould of Thatcher or Labour's Ted Heath. 

A statue of Margaret Thatcher stands in the Guildhall Art Gallery in London. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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