"All Thatcherites now"? Not us, say the voters

A new YouGov poll shows voters reject policies including the sell off of council housing, the privatisation of public utilities and prioritising inflation over employment.

"We're all Thatcherites now," declared David Cameron yesterday, implying that the former prime minister's values had become the nation's. But YouGov's new poll on her reforms suggests the voters take a more nuanced view than Cameron's narrative allows.

It is true, as Cameron said, that some "big arguments" have been permanently resolved in the right's favour. Asked whether a "stronger and more influential trade union movement would be a good thing for Britain", just 34 per cent said it would and 45 per cent said it would not. By a similar margin - 52 per cent to 27 per cent - the public agree that "companies and industries that are not competitive or profitable should be allowed to close", even if this means job losses, rather than receiving government subsidy.

The voters also overwhelmingly reject one of the policies that featured in Labour's 1983 "suicide note": unilateral nuclear disarmament. Asked whether Britain should "maintain its nuclear deterrent" or whether it is "no longer necessary for Britain to have its own nuclear weapons", 59 per cent said the former and just 26 per cent the latter. Finally, on deregulation, by 45 per cent to 40 per cent, voters agree that businesses work best when free to grow "without government interference", rather than when "strongly regulated to protect the interests of their customers and workers". In his interview on the Today programme, Cameron argued that "no one wants to go back to trade unions that are undemocratic or one-sided nuclear disarmament or having great private sector businesses in the public sector" and, in these areas, the poll bears him out.

But more striking are those parts of Thatcher's legacy that the public now reject, including the totemic "right to buy". Only 42 per cent said that social and council housing tenants should be allowed to buy their homes, with a greater number (49 per cent) agreeing that social housing should be kept in public ownership for "future generations in need". The voters also take a sceptical view of another of Thatcher's emblematic policies - privatisation. A large majority - 61 per cent - believe that public utilities, such as energy and water, are "best run by the public sector", compared to 26 per cent who said they should be run by private companies. Ed Miliband has consistently rejected calls to renationalise the utility companies, largely on the grounds of cost, but expect to see this proposal pushed by the Labour left as the party's policy review continues.

The public also doesn't share Thatcher's narrow, monetarist focus on price control. Forty one per cent agreed that the government's economic priority should be to "keep down prices, inflation and government borrowing" but 49 per cent said that its priority should be "to protect jobs, ensure full employment and maintain spending power in the economy".

If it is clear, to paraphrase Thatcher, that few want to return to the days when the state ran Pickfords removals and the Gleneagles Hotel, it is also clear that most would like to see a more mixed economy, with the state intervening to provide affordable housing and utilities and to enable full employment. All of which suggests that the social democratic Ed Miliband may have a better grasp of the new centre ground than that son of Thatcher, Tony Blair.

A member of the crowd holds up a sign along the route of the procession during the ceremonial funeral of Margaret Thatcher. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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