Revealed: how Osborne misled MPs over the deficit

The Chancellor said that borrowing was forecast to fall this year but the small print of the Office for Budget Responsibility document suggests otherwise.

Against expectations, George Osborne announced in his Budget speech that the deficit was forecast to fall "this year and next". He insisted that this was the case even if special factors (such as the transfer of the Royal Mail pension fund) are excluded. 

But scour the small print of the Office for Budget Responsibility document and it emerges that the Chancellor misled the House. As Table 4.36 shows, "excluding Royal Mail, APF and SLS transfers" (the final column), borrowing is forecast to rise from £121bn in 2011-12 to £123.2bn in 2012-13. As in last year's Autumn Statement, when he banked the 4G receipts early, Osborne has once again relied on smoke and mirrors to disguise his fiscal failings. 

This isn't mere pedantry; consistent deficit reduction is crucial to Osborne's narrative that "we're on the right track". But as the figures below show, that is far from the case. 

George Osborne poses for pictures outside 11 Downing Street in London before the Budget. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Getty
Show Hide image

The SNP retains power as Scottish Labour faces being beaten into third

Ruth Davidson’s Conservative Party looks on track to become the official opposition in Holyrood.

As expected, the SNP have performed well in the Scottish elections, with an increased vote share and some key gains – particularly from Labour in Glasgow, where Nicola Sturgeon’s party took all eight constituency seats. As it stands, they could be on course for a second successive majority in Holyrood, once the list members are fully counted.

The story of the night, though, is the demise of Scottish Labour, which put in its worst ever performance in Scotland (my stalwart liveblogging colleague Stephen Bush points out that it’s the party’s worst result since universal suffrage was introduced in 1929). The party’s vote share was done across Scotland, and the results are sufficiently poor that they could see them fall behind the Conservatives to become the third biggest party north of the border.

Losses for Labour include seat of Eastwood in Glasgow, where Scottish Conservatives deputy leader Jackson Carlaw defeated Ken Macintosh. Labour had held the seat for 17 years, though it had been Conservative beforehand.

Other key losses for Scottish Labour include Dumfriesshire, where they were beaten into third; Renfrewshire South (which went to the SNP); Cowdenbeath, where Gordon Brown's old constituency manager and protégé Alex Rowley also lost to the SNP; Glasgow Pollok, where former Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont lost to the SNP’s Humza Yousaf. There was a close call for Labour’s Jackie Baillie in Dumbarton, where she held on by just 109 votes.

Rare successes came in Edinburgh Southern, where Daniel Johnson took the seat from the SNP’s Jim Eadie (although since the seat is effectively a four-way marginal, it’s not a particularly indicative gain), and East Lothian, where former Scottish Labour leader Iain Gray managed to increase a previously slender majority.

Speaking to the BBC, Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale said:

“A very bad night for the Labour party… There’s no doubt that the constitution has dominated this election.”

She also confirmed that “no matter what, 100 per cent, I will remain leader of the Scottish Labour party”.

In a great night for her party, Ruth Davison won her seat in Edinburgh Central, making her the first Scottish Conservative leader not to need the list system to enter the Scottish Parliament  since 2005. The Tories also gained Aberdeen West from the SNP as well as their success in Dumfriesshire.

The Liberal Democrats also had a better-than-expected night. Their leader, Willie Rennie, took the Fife North East seat from the SNP, and his party also had comfortable holds in Orkney and Shetland.

Caroline Crampton is web editor of the New Statesman.