John Hayes replaced as energy minister by Michael Fallon

A mini ministerial reshuffle.

David Cameron has made a slight tweak to his ministerial line-up this morning – John Hayes, formerly a Minister of State at the Department for Energy and Climate Change, is to become the prime minister’s senior parliamentary advisor. Michael Fallon, already a Minister of State at the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills, takes on the energy brief in addition to his current responsibilities.

The BBC’s Norman Smith reports that the move is designed to give “a more business focus” to energy policy. But questions will be asked about whether John Hayes is indeed being promoted, or in fact brought closer to heel. Michael Savage of the Times tweets that Hayes’ departure will help solve the “awful” atmosphere at DECC, and it’s been no secret that he’s clashed with Lib Dem Energy Secretary Ed Davey, particularly over wind farms. 

Tim Montgomerie is cheerful about the move – he applauds the decision to bring Hayes, a “non-southern, non-posh voice” - closer to the No 10 operation. Similarly, the Telegraph’s Benedict Brogan appears to be delighted to see Fallon recognised with a bigger brief – he calls him “one of the proper grown-ups”.

It’s not clear exactly how Michael Fallon is going to balance ministerial jobs in two different departments, but it is apparent that his ability to get on with a Lib Dem Secretary of State at BIS is being rewarded – by avoiding public clashes with Vince Cable, Fallon has charmed his way into David Cameron’s good books for sure. Now he will be expected to do the same with Ed Davey. We have yet another indication, if we even needed it, that the Conservatives are committed to trying to preserve Coalition harmony for the foreseeable future.

John Hayes speaking at the 2011 Conservative Party conference. Photograph: Getty Images

Caroline Crampton is assistant editor of the New Statesman. She writes a weekly podcast column.

Photo: Getty
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Who will win the Copeland by-election?

Labour face a tricky task in holding onto the seat. 

What’s the Copeland by-election about? That’s the question that will decide who wins it.

The Conservatives want it to be about the nuclear industry, which is the seat’s biggest employer, and Jeremy Corbyn’s long history of opposition to nuclear power.

Labour want it to be about the difficulties of the NHS in Cumbria in general and the future of West Cumberland Hospital in particular.

Who’s winning? Neither party is confident of victory but both sides think it will be close. That Theresa May has visited is a sign of the confidence in Conservative headquarters that, win or lose, Labour will not increase its majority from the six-point lead it held over the Conservatives in May 2015. (It’s always more instructive to talk about vote share rather than raw numbers, in by-elections in particular.)

But her visit may have been counterproductive. Yes, she is the most popular politician in Britain according to all the polls, but in visiting she has added fuel to the fire of Labour’s message that the Conservatives are keeping an anxious eye on the outcome.

Labour strategists feared that “the oxygen” would come out of the campaign if May used her visit to offer a guarantee about West Cumberland Hospital. Instead, she refused to answer, merely hyping up the issue further.

The party is nervous that opposition to Corbyn is going to supress turnout among their voters, but on the Conservative side, there is considerable irritation that May’s visit has made their task harder, too.

Voters know the difference between a by-election and a general election and my hunch is that people will get they can have a free hit on the health question without risking the future of the nuclear factory. That Corbyn has U-Turned on nuclear power only helps.

I said last week that if I knew what the local paper would look like between now and then I would be able to call the outcome. Today the West Cumbria News & Star leads with Downing Street’s refusal to answer questions about West Cumberland Hospital. All the signs favour Labour. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.