After winning Eastleigh, Lib Dem members want payback on secret courts

The activists who won the ground war in Eastleigh want their new MP - and all other Lib Dems - to vote against secret courts today.

Poor Mike Thornton. The newly elected MP for Eastleigh may well be experiencing one of those ‘be careful what you wish for’ moments today. Because in his first proper day in the job, he has to decide which way to vote on the Justice and Security Bill this afternoon. And as a large number of activists are no doubt making clear in his inbox - it's payback time...

You don’t get (literally) thousands of activists delivering, phoning and stumping up dosh without them expecting, at the very least, that the new member will be voting in line with party policy on an issue of civil liberty. Such are the perils of people power. Mike’s a got a tough choice to make.

But of course, it’s not just Mike. Every Lib Dem MP must be crystal clear this morning that the secret weapon we have over Labour and the Tories is our ability to mobilise an effective ground war in areas where we are the incumbents – i.e. their own constituencies. And equally, they must be clear that the troops are expecting the generals to deliver what they believe in. If they’re not, there’s a letter in today’s Daily Mail – the most-read newspaper by Lib Dem members, don’t-you-know – reminding them of that fact. Of course, they’re welcome to engage with the membership in debate on the issue – but they’d better know their facts, or else they get mashed up and spat out by a better informed and rather angry set of activists, led by the inspirational Jo Shaw.

The received wisdom in the media was that Eastleigh had bought the Lib Dem leadership time, that the troops would be delirious post-victory and a happy and contented spring conference would follow. They are right that the members are delighted we won Eastleigh – but activists are equally clear that it was a victory for the proles, not the Westminster bourgeoisie and now it's payback time.

As Miranda Green put it last night…

We’re feeling pretty bold, Miranda. We’d like our MPs to vote for party policy today.

No to secret courts.

Richard Morris blogs at A View From Ham Common, which was named Best New Blog at the 2011 Liberal Democrat Conference

Liberal Democrat Eastleigh by-election candidate Mike Thornton celebrates his win with Nick Clegg. Photograph: Getty Images.

Richard Morris blogs at A View From Ham Common, which was named Best New Blog at the 2011 Lib Dem Conference

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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