After winning Eastleigh, Lib Dem members want payback on secret courts

The activists who won the ground war in Eastleigh want their new MP - and all other Lib Dems - to vote against secret courts today.

Poor Mike Thornton. The newly elected MP for Eastleigh may well be experiencing one of those ‘be careful what you wish for’ moments today. Because in his first proper day in the job, he has to decide which way to vote on the Justice and Security Bill this afternoon. And as a large number of activists are no doubt making clear in his inbox - it's payback time...

You don’t get (literally) thousands of activists delivering, phoning and stumping up dosh without them expecting, at the very least, that the new member will be voting in line with party policy on an issue of civil liberty. Such are the perils of people power. Mike’s a got a tough choice to make.

But of course, it’s not just Mike. Every Lib Dem MP must be crystal clear this morning that the secret weapon we have over Labour and the Tories is our ability to mobilise an effective ground war in areas where we are the incumbents – i.e. their own constituencies. And equally, they must be clear that the troops are expecting the generals to deliver what they believe in. If they’re not, there’s a letter in today’s Daily Mail – the most-read newspaper by Lib Dem members, don’t-you-know – reminding them of that fact. Of course, they’re welcome to engage with the membership in debate on the issue – but they’d better know their facts, or else they get mashed up and spat out by a better informed and rather angry set of activists, led by the inspirational Jo Shaw.

The received wisdom in the media was that Eastleigh had bought the Lib Dem leadership time, that the troops would be delirious post-victory and a happy and contented spring conference would follow. They are right that the members are delighted we won Eastleigh – but activists are equally clear that it was a victory for the proles, not the Westminster bourgeoisie and now it's payback time.

As Miranda Green put it last night…

We’re feeling pretty bold, Miranda. We’d like our MPs to vote for party policy today.

No to secret courts.

Richard Morris blogs at A View From Ham Common, which was named Best New Blog at the 2011 Liberal Democrat Conference

Liberal Democrat Eastleigh by-election candidate Mike Thornton celebrates his win with Nick Clegg. Photograph: Getty Images.

Richard Morris blogs at A View From Ham Common, which was named Best New Blog at the 2011 Lib Dem Conference

Photo: Getty
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Scotland's vast deficit remains an obstacle to independence

Though the country's financial position has improved, independence would still risk severe austerity. 

For the SNP, the annual Scottish public spending figures bring good and bad news. The good news, such as it is, is that Scotland's deficit fell by £1.3bn in 2016/17. The bad news is that it remains £13.3bn or 8.3 per cent of GDP – three times the UK figure of 2.4 per cent (£46.2bn) and vastly higher than the white paper's worst case scenario of £5.5bn. 

These figures, it's important to note, include Scotland's geographic share of North Sea oil and gas revenue. The "oil bonus" that the SNP once boasted of has withered since the collapse in commodity prices. Though revenue rose from £56m the previous year to £208m, this remains a fraction of the £8bn recorded in 2011/12. Total public sector revenue was £312 per person below the UK average, while expenditure was £1,437 higher. Though the SNP is playing down the figures as "a snapshot", the white paper unambiguously stated: "GERS [Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland] is the authoritative publication on Scotland’s public finances". 

As before, Nicola Sturgeon has warned of the threat posed by Brexit to the Scottish economy. But the country's black hole means the risks of independence remain immense. As a new state, Scotland would be forced to pay a premium on its debt, resulting in an even greater fiscal gap. Were it to use the pound without permission, with no independent central bank and no lender of last resort, borrowing costs would rise still further. To offset a Greek-style crisis, Scotland would be forced to impose dramatic austerity. 

Sturgeon is undoubtedly right to warn of the risks of Brexit (particularly of the "hard" variety). But for a large number of Scots, this is merely cause to avoid the added turmoil of independence. Though eventual EU membership would benefit Scotland, its UK trade is worth four times as much as that with Europe. 

Of course, for a true nationalist, economics is irrelevant. Independence is a good in itself and sovereignty always trumps prosperity (a point on which Scottish nationalists align with English Brexiteers). But if Scotland is to ever depart the UK, the SNP will need to win over pragmatists, too. In that quest, Scotland's deficit remains a vast obstacle. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.