No early poll bounce for the Tories from Cameron's EU speech

First poll since Cameron's EU referendum pledge shows Labour's lead has risen two points to 12.

One of the hopes among the Tories is that David Cameron's promise of an EU referendum, like his "veto" of the EU fiscal compact in December 2011, will win the party a poll bounce. This is not just because it could persuade those eurosceptic voters who currently support Ukip or who "don't know" how they'd vote to back the Conservatives but also because it could lead swing voters to view Cameron as a strong and decisive leader. 

However, the first YouGov poll since the Prime Minister's speech, the fieldwork for which was conducted between 5pm on Tuesday and 5pm yesterday, shows no sign of an early boost for the Tories. Instead, support for Labour has risen by two points to 43 per cent, while the Tories are unchanged on 31 per cent. We will, of course, need to wait until the weekend polls for a clear picture of what effect, if any, Cameron's speech has had on the Conservatives' standing. 

But given how well trailed the speech was and the favourable coverage it received yesterday morning from Fleet Street, there will be some Tories disappointed that there has been no early shift in support. However, as I explained yesterday, it would not be surprising if Cameron's speech failed to move the polls. At present, just six per cent of voters regard the EU as one of the most "important issues" facing Britain. The news of Cameron's referendum pledge was only the tenth most-read story on the BBC website yesterday. To win the next election, the Tories need to talk about growth, jobs, public services and crime - the issues that actually matter to most people. Now let's see what the numbers look like after the weekend.

David Cameron delivers his speech on the UK's relationship with the EU at Bloomberg's headquarters in London. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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PMQs review: Angela Eagle cheers Labour MPs against an improved George Osborne

The shadow first secretary of state revelled in the Tories' splits. 

For months, Labour MPs have despaired at their party's failure to exploit the Tories' visceral EU divisions. But at today's PMQs, Angela Eagle gave them cause for cheer. Facing George Osborne in her capacity as shadow first secretary of state (David Cameron is attending the G7 in Japan), she brandished Iain Duncan Smith's description of him as "Pinocchio". "Who does the Chancellor think the public shoud listen to," she dryly remarked, "his former cabinet colleague or the leader of Britain's trade unions?" Eagle later roused the House by noting the scarcity of Brexiters on the frontbench. Her questions were too broad to pin Osborne down, and she struggled to match the impact of her first performance - but it was a more than adequate outing.

After recent reversals, the Chancellor delivered a ruthlessly efficient, if somewhat charmless, performance. When Eagle punched his Google bruise (following the police raid on the company's French offices), Osborne shot back: "She seems to forget that she was the Exchequer Secretary in the last government, so perhaps when she stands up she can tells us whether she ever raised with the Inland Revenue the tax affairs of Google?" 

He riled Labour MPs by describing the party as anti-Trident (though not yet announced, Corbyn will grant a free vote), a mark of how the Conservative leadership intends to use the issue to reunify the party post-referendum. "We look forward to the vote on Trident and he should get on with it," Eagle sharply retorted at the start of the session. But Osborne inevitably had more ammunition: "While she's sitting here, the leader od the Labour Party is sitting at home wondering whether to impeach the former leader of the Labour Party for war crimes." He compared Labour MPs to prisoners on "day release". And he gleefully quoted from Jon Cruddas's inquiry: "In their own report this week, Labour's Future, surprisingly long, they say 'they are becoming increasingly irrelevant to the working people of Britain."

The muted response from the Tory benches demonstrated how badly the EU vote has severed the party. But Osborne will be satisfied to have avoided any gaffes or hostages to fortunes. His performance today, his best to date at PMQs, was a reminder of why he is down but not yet out. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.