The Tories' shameful new ad campaign against "the scroungers"

New ad in marginal seats contrasts "hardworking families" with those "who won't work".

 

The Tories' new ad campaign (see above) is the party's most shameless attempt yet to turn "the strivers" against "the scroungers". The online ad will run in the 60 Conservative marginals where, as Labour has highlighted, the number of families receiving working tax credits is greater than the MP's majority. Since tax credits, like other working-age benefits, will only be increased by 1 per cent for the next three years (below the rate of inflation), Labour has accused the government of imposing a "strivers' tax". Sixty per cent of the real-terms cut to benefits will fall on working households and, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), the average one earner couple will be £534 a year worse off by 2015.

The Conservatives' response is the demagogic ad above, which asks, "Who do you think this government should be giving more support to? Hard-working families or people who won't work?", and includes an image of a "scrounger" with his feet up at home. The "support" mentioned by the ad is a reference to the planned increase in the personal allowance, which will rise by £1,335 to £9,440 from next April, benefiting basic rate taxpayers by up to £267.

But there are two reasons why the ad might prove less successful than the Tories hope. The first is that, as the IFS has confirmed, the average family will lose more from the cuts to tax credits and other benefits than it gains from the increase in the personal allowance. The second is that not all voters will accept the caricature of the unemployed presented by the ad. The majority of those without a job are desperately trying to find work (with little support from the government) and, in most cases, will have been employed and paid taxes for years before the recession. The number who choose benefits as a lifestyle is far smaller than ministers imagine.

For these reasons, among others, polls show that fewer voters than expected support Osborne's benefit cuts. Most notably, a MORI poll published on Thursday found that 69 per cent believe benefits should rise in line with inflation or more.

Chancellor and Conservative chief election strategist George Osborne. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Photo: Getty
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The big problem for the NHS? Local government cuts

Even a U-Turn on planned cuts to the service itself will still leave the NHS under heavy pressure. 

38Degrees has uncovered a series of grisly plans for the NHS over the coming years. Among the highlights: severe cuts to frontline services at the Midland Metropolitan Hospital, including but limited to the closure of its Accident and Emergency department. Elsewhere, one of three hospitals in Leicester, Leicestershire and Rutland are to be shuttered, while there will be cuts to acute services in Suffolk and North East Essex.

These cuts come despite an additional £8bn annual cash injection into the NHS, characterised as the bare minimum needed by Simon Stevens, the head of NHS England.

The cuts are outlined in draft sustainability and transformation plans (STP) that will be approved in October before kicking off a period of wider consultation.

The problem for the NHS is twofold: although its funding remains ringfenced, healthcare inflation means that in reality, the health service requires above-inflation increases to stand still. But the second, bigger problem aren’t cuts to the NHS but to the rest of government spending, particularly local government cuts.

That has seen more pressure on hospital beds as outpatients who require further non-emergency care have nowhere to go, increasing lifestyle problems as cash-strapped councils either close or increase prices at subsidised local authority gyms, build on green space to make the best out of Britain’s booming property market, and cut other corners to manage the growing backlog of devolved cuts.

All of which means even a bigger supply of cash for the NHS than the £8bn promised at the last election – even the bonanza pledged by Vote Leave in the referendum, in fact – will still find itself disappearing down the cracks left by cuts elsewhere. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. He usually writes about politics.