How many Labour MPs oppose gay marriage?

Eight Labour MPs are on record as opposing equal marriage, which Ed Miliband will offer a free vote on.

I reported earlier that Ed Miliband will offer Labour MPs a free vote on allowing gay marriages in religious buildings. But how many in his party oppose the policy? I've compiled a list below of those Labour MPs on record as opposing equal marriage. There are far fewer than in the Conservative Party (as many as 130 Tory MPs are expected to vote against the measure) but more than some might expect.

For a comprehensive guide to where all MPs stand on the issue, I recommend the Coalition For Equal Marriage site.

Joe Benton MP for Bootle - Has signed the Coalition For Marriage petition.

Jim Dobbin MP for Heywood and Middleton - Told the Rochdale Observer: "The idea to redefine marriage at the present time is unacceptable to me. I do not think the government have thought it through because it will mean massive changes across the board to things such as people’s pensions and how they live. As a practising Christian my views are in kind with my beliefs. It is a simple straightforward view."

Brian Donohoe MP for Central Ayrshire - Told the Irvine Times: "I am, of course, against any form of discrimination. However, I also believe that marriage is a term used to describe the joining of a man and a woman only."

Mary Glindon MP for North Tyneside - Has signed the Coalition For Marriage petition

Roger Godsiff MP for Birmingham Hall Green - Has said he will oppose any law "redefining the current definition of marriage".

Austin Mitchell MP for Great Grimsby - Tweeted that "Gay marriage is neither urgent nor important.It's also a moral issue therefore a free vote on which basis it won't pass".

Paul Murphy MP for Torfaen - Confirmed lack of support via email to constituent.

Stephen Pound MP for Ealing North - Confirmed lack of support via email to constituent.

A wedding cake is seen during a demonstration in West Hollywood, California. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Who will win in Stoke-on-Trent?

Labour are the favourites, but they could fall victim to a shock in the Midlands constituency.  

The resignation of Tristram Hunt as MP for Stoke-on-Central has triggered a by-election in the safe Labour seat of Stoke on Trent Central. That had Westminster speculating about the possibility of a victory for Ukip, which only intensified once Paul Nuttall, the party’s leader, was installed as the candidate.

If Nuttall’s message that the Labour Party has lost touch with its small-town and post-industrial heartlands is going to pay dividends at the ballot box, there can hardly be a better set of circumstances than this: the sitting MP has quit to take up a well-paid job in London, and although  the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs voted to block Brexit, the well-advertised divisions in that party over the vote should help Ukip.

But Labour started with a solid lead – it is always more useful to talk about percentages, not raw vote totals – of 16 points in 2015, with the two parties of the right effectively tied in second and third place. Just 33 votes separated Ukip in second from the third-placed Conservatives.

There was a possible – but narrow – path to victory for Ukip that involved swallowing up the Conservative vote, while Labour shed votes in three directions: to the Liberal Democrats, to Ukip, and to abstention.

But as I wrote at the start of the contest, Ukip were, in my view, overwritten in their chances of winning the seat. We talk a lot about Labour’s problem appealing to “aspirational” voters in Westminster, but less covered, and equally important, is Ukip’s aspiration problem.

For some people, a vote for Ukip is effectively a declaration that you live in a dump. You can have an interesting debate about whether it was particularly sympathetic of Ken Clarke to brand that party’s voters as “elderly male people who have had disappointing lives”, but that view is not just confined to pro-European Conservatives. A great number of people, in Stoke and elsewhere, who are sympathetic to Ukip’s positions on immigration, international development and the European Union also think that voting Ukip is for losers.

That always made making inroads into the Conservative vote harder than it looks. At the risk of looking very, very foolish in six days time, I found it difficult to imagine why Tory voters in Hanley would take the risk of voting Ukip. As I wrote when Nuttall announced his candidacy, the Conservatives were, in my view, a bigger threat to Labour than Ukip.

Under Theresa May, almost every move the party has made has been designed around making inroads into the Ukip vote and that part of the Labour vote that is sympathetic to Ukip. If the polls are to be believed, she’s succeeding nationally, though even on current polling, the Conservatives wouldn’t have enough to take Stoke on Trent Central.

Now Theresa May has made a visit to the constituency. Well, seeing as the government has a comfortable majority in the House of Commons, it’s not as if the Prime Minister needs to find time to visit the seat, particularly when there is another, easier battle down the road in the shape of the West Midlands mayoral election.

But one thing is certain: the Conservatives wouldn’t be sending May down if they thought that they were going to do worse than they did in 2015.

Parties can be wrong of course. The Conservatives knew that they had found a vulnerable spot in the last election as far as a Labour deal with the SNP was concerned. They thought that vulnerable spot was worth 15 to 20 seats. They gained 27 from the Liberal Democrats and a further eight from Labour.  Labour knew they would underperform public expectations and thought they’d end up with around 260 to 280 seats. They ended up with 232.

Nevertheless, Theresa May wouldn’t be coming down to Stoke if CCHQ thought that four days later, her party was going to finish fourth. And if the Conservatives don’t collapse, anyone betting on Ukip is liable to lose their shirt. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.