How many cabinet ministers will vote against gay marriage?

Faith minister Sayeeda Warsi, who attends cabinet, is the latest figure to raise concerns over the policy.

Ed Miliband declared earlier this week that the shadow cabinet was "united in supporting same sex marriage" but David Cameron can't say the same of his top team. Environment Secretary Owen Paterson, a renowned social conservative, has said that he does not support the move and Welsh Secretary David Jones has indicated that he will vote against it while refusing to say why. Defence Secretary Philip Hammond does not oppose equal marriage as such but has suggested that its introduction should be delayed to allow the government to "focus on the things that matter".

Today it emerged that Sayeeda Warsi, who attends cabinet as minister for faith communities and as a senior Foreign Office minister, also has concerns over the policy. In a letter leaked to the Daily Mail, Warsi asked equalities minister Maria Miller, who is piloting the legislation through parliament, to provide "clarity" on "how the legislation will protect religious freedom". She added: "What legal protection will churches and other places of worship be afforded from challenges if they refuse to undertake same-sex marriage? What legal support will be afforded to churches and others places of worship if they're challenged individually or as an organisation?"

Warsi's letter, sent after Miller's statement to MPs, is significant because it shows that even the "quadruple lock" preventing religious institutions being forced to marry same-sex couples has not been enough to assuage Tory concerns. The lock will ensure that neither religious organisations nor individual ministers will be compelled to hold the weddings on their premises, that no discrimination claims can be brought against them for refusing to marry a same-sex couple, and that religious organisations who do support equal marriage will be required to formally opt-in. In addition, the Church of England and Church in Wales will be banned from hosting same-sex weddings without new primary legislation. Some Tories are pushing for the latter measure to apply to all religious organisations.

Should Conservative cabinet ministers vote against equal marriage, it will not qualify as a rebellion because David Cameron has offered a free vote to his MPs. Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg have since followed suit after the government agreed to allow religious organisations to hold same-sex marriages.

Faith minister Sayeeda Warsi asked equalities minister Maria Miller to offer greater "clarity" on gay marriage. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Voters are turning against Brexit but the Lib Dems aren't benefiting

Labour's pro-Brexit stance is not preventing it from winning the support of Remainers. Will that change?

More than a year after the UK voted for Brexit, there has been little sign of buyer's remorse. The public, including around a third of Remainers, are largely of the view that the government should "get on with it".

But as real wages are squeezed (owing to the Brexit-linked inflationary spike) there are tentative signs that the mood is changing. In the event of a second referendum, an Opinium/Observer poll found, 47 per cent would vote Remain, compared to 44 per cent for Leave. Support for a repeat vote is also increasing. Forty one per cent of the public now favour a second referendum (with 48 per cent opposed), compared to 33 per cent last December. 

The Liberal Democrats have made halting Brexit their raison d'être. But as public opinion turns, there is no sign they are benefiting. Since the election, Vince Cable's party has yet to exceed single figures in the polls, scoring a lowly 6 per cent in the Opinium survey (down from 7.4 per cent at the election). 

What accounts for this disparity? After their near-extinction in 2015, the Lib Dems remain either toxic or irrelevant to many voters. Labour, by contrast, despite its pro-Brexit stance, has hoovered up Remainers (55 per cent back Jeremy Corbyn's party). 

In some cases, this reflects voters' other priorities. Remainers are prepared to support Labour on account of the party's stances on austerity, housing and education. Corbyn, meanwhile, is a eurosceptic whose internationalism and pro-migration reputation endear him to EU supporters. Other Remainers rewarded Labour MPs who voted against Article 50, rebelling against the leadership's stance. 

But the trend also partly reflects ignorance. By saying little on the subject of Brexit, Corbyn and Labour allowed Remainers to assume the best. Though there is little evidence that voters will abandon Corbyn over his EU stance, the potential exists.

For this reason, the proposal of a new party will continue to recur. By challenging Labour over Brexit, without the toxicity of Lib Dems, it would sharpen the choice before voters. Though it would not win an election, a new party could force Corbyn to soften his stance on Brexit or to offer a second referendum (mirroring Ukip's effect on the Conservatives).

The greatest problem for the project is that it lacks support where it counts: among MPs. For reasons of tribalism and strategy, there is no emergent "Gang of Four" ready to helm a new party. In the absence of a new convulsion, the UK may turn against Brexit without the anti-Brexiteers benefiting. 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.