How the Autumn Statement hit "the strivers"

Sixty per cent of welfare cuts made in this parliament will fall on the working poor.

For a Chancellor who prefaced his Autumn Statement with a declaration that he was "on the side of these who want to work hard and get on", George Osborne has made some rather inconsistent announcements yesterday.

Consider, for example, his decision to uprate tax credits at below-inflation levels for the next three years. Both working couples and lone parents look set to lose over £23 of their working tax credit (WTC) in 2013-14 as a result of this move. Not so bad, one might think, but remember that this comes on top of a prior freeze in value of other key elements of WTC which will remain in place, and which will shave an additional £60 off a working family’s entitlement next year.

The changes being made to the personal tax allowance will do little to offset this shortfall. Extending the threshold potentially leaves basic rate taxpayers £47 better off in 2013-14. But for low-income working families, much of this gain evaporates as other forms of support are tapered away in response to their higher post-tax income. While those further up the income scale will keep the full £47, a working family eligible for both housing and council tax benefit will gain only 13p a week extra as a result of extended allowances.

Osborne is fond of the notion that there is a group of hard working "strivers" out there who throw "those with their blinds down" into sharp relief. In truth, the vast majority of those who rely on benefits and tax credits for part of their income have worked, are in work, or will be back in work very shortly in the future.

And with estimates suggesting that around 60 per cent of welfare cuts made in this parliament will hit the working poor, the Chancellor must do much more to show he understands the problems that those on low incomes face. Rather than glib words, Osborne needs to start providing real, rather than merely rhetorical, support for hard-pressed working families and individuals.

Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith leaves 10 Downing Street on 5 December, 2012. Photograph: Getty Images.

Alison Garnham is chief executive of the Child Poverty Action Group

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Will Jeremy Corbyn stand down if Labour loses the general election?

Defeat at the polls might not be the end of Corbyn’s leadership.

The latest polls suggest that Labour is headed for heavy defeat in the June general election. Usually a general election loss would be the trigger for a leader to quit: Michael Foot, Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband all stood down after their first defeat, although Neil Kinnock saw out two losses before resigning in 1992.

It’s possible, if unlikely, that Corbyn could become prime minister. If that prospect doesn’t materialise, however, the question is: will Corbyn follow the majority of his predecessors and resign, or will he hang on in office?

Will Corbyn stand down? The rules

There is no formal process for the parliamentary Labour party to oust its leader, as it discovered in the 2016 leadership challenge. Even after a majority of his MPs had voted no confidence in him, Corbyn stayed on, ultimately winning his second leadership contest after it was decided that the current leader should be automatically included on the ballot.

This year’s conference will vote on to reform the leadership selection process that would make it easier for a left-wing candidate to get on the ballot (nicknamed the “McDonnell amendment” by centrists): Corbyn could be waiting for this motion to pass before he resigns.

Will Corbyn stand down? The membership

Corbyn’s support in the membership is still strong. Without an equally compelling candidate to put before the party, Corbyn’s opponents in the PLP are unlikely to initiate another leadership battle they’re likely to lose.

That said, a general election loss could change that. Polling from March suggests that half of Labour members wanted Corbyn to stand down either immediately or before the general election.

Will Corbyn stand down? The rumours

Sources close to Corbyn have said that he might not stand down, even if he leads Labour to a crushing defeat this June. They mention Kinnock’s survival after the 1987 general election as a precedent (although at the 1987 election, Labour did gain seats).

Will Corbyn stand down? The verdict

Given his struggles to manage his own MPs and the example of other leaders, it would be remarkable if Corbyn did not stand down should Labour lose the general election. However, staying on after a vote of no-confidence in 2016 was also remarkable, and the mooted changes to the leadership election process give him a reason to hold on until September in order to secure a left-wing succession.

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