Osborne speaks sense on gay marriage

Gay marriage is right and we must support it if we want to win, Chancellor tells the Tories.

George Osborne has always sat on the socially liberal wing of the Conservative Party, so it is no surprise that he is a strong supporter of gay marriage. But given the extent of opposition to the policy within Tory ranks (it is reportedly the top reason for members resigning from the party), it's still notable that he uses an op-ed (£) in today's Times to signal that the government will press ahead with plans to introduce it.

With an eye to Obama's victory last week, the Chancellor rightly concludes that social liberalism is the only electorally viable position. He notes that the Republicans "lost swathes of voters who were on their side of the economic argument" because of their stances on abortion and equal marriage, adding that he wouldn't change "the current abortion laws" (as his voting record indicates) and that he supports gay marriage "on principle".

But, as ever, Osborne, who is both Chancellor and the Tories' chief election strategist, also has psephological considerations in mind. He believes the Tories should support gay marriage not just because it is the right thing to do but because it will help them win in the future. Osborne slightly overstates his case by writing that a "clear majority of the public support gay marriage" (the polling evidence is more mixed, although polls generally show at least a plurality in favour) but his wider point - that support for gay marriage is only likely to grow with time - is spot-on. In an echo of Tony Blair, who Osborne refers to as "the master" for his election-winning abilities, he writes that "Successful political parties reflect the modern societies they aspire to lead". To this end, the Chancellor confirms that the government will "introduce a Bill to allow gay marriage."

Already, however, his comments have prompted a backlash from Conservatives. Stewart Jackson MP tweets that the Chancellor "should focus less on social liberal obsessions like gay marriage & more on outside M25 priorities like jobs, taxes & growth". It is, of course, possible to do both. What Tories like Jackson really mean when they say the government should "focus" on other issues is that they don't want it to ever introduce gay marriage. So long as the Conservative Party continues to boast such figures in its ranks, many socially liberal Britons will feel unable to vote for it.

George Osborne said the government would "introduce a Bill to allow gay marriage". Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Ansbach puts Europe's bravest politician under pressure

Angela Merkel must respond to a series of tragedies and criticisms of her refugee policy. 

Angela Merkel, the Chancellor of Germany, is supposed to be on holiday. Two separate attacks have put an end to that. The first, a mass shooting in Munich, was at first widely believed to be a terrorist attack, but later turned out to be the actions of a loner obsessed with US high school shootings. The second, where a man blew himself up in the town of Ansbach, caused less physical damage - three were seriously injured, but none killed. Nevertheless, this event may prove to affect even more people's lives. Because that man had come to Germany claiming to be a Syrian refugee. 

The attack came hours after a Syrian refugee murdered a pregnant Polish woman, a co-woker in a snack bar, in Reutlingen. All eyes will now be on Merkel who, more than any other European politician, is held responsible for Syrian refugees in Europe.

In 2015, when other European states were erecting barriers to keep out the million migrants and refugees marching north, Merkel kept Germany's borders open. The country has resettled 41,899 Syrians since 2013, according to the UNHCR, of which 20,067 came on humanitarian grounds and 21,832 through private sponsorship. That is twice as much as the UK has pledged to resettle by 2020. The actual number of Syrians in Germany is far higher - 90 per cent of the 102,400 Syrians applying for EU asylum in the first quarter of 2016 were registered there. 

Merkel is the bravest of Europe's politicians. Contrary to some assertions on the right, she did not invent the refugee crisis. Five years of brutal war in Syria did that. Merkel was simply the first of the continent's most prominent leaders to stop ignoring it. If Germany had not absorbed so many refugees, they would still be in central Europe and the Balkans, and we would be seeing even more pictures of starved children in informal camps than we do today. 

Equally, the problems facing Merkel now are not hers alone. These are the problems facing all of Europe's major states, whether or not they recognise them. 

Take the failed Syrian asylum seeker of Ansbach (his application was rejected but he could not be deported back to a warzone). In Germany, his application could at least be considered, and rejected. Europe as a whole has not invested in the processing centres required to determine who is a Syrian civilian, who might be a Syrian combatant and who is simply taking advantage of the black market in Syrian passports to masquerade as a refugee. 

Secondly, there is the subject of trauma. The Munich shooter appears to have had no links to Islamic State or Syria, but his act underlines the fact you do not need a grand political narrative to inflict hurt on others. Syrians who have experienced unspeakable violence either in their homeland or en route to Europe are left psychologically damaged. That is not to suggest they will turn to violence. But it is still safer to offer such people therapy than leave them to drift around Europe, unmonitored and unsupported, as other countries seem willing to do. 

Third, there is the question of lawlessness. Syrians have been blamed for everything from the Cologne attacks in January to creeping Islamist radicalisation. But apart from the fact that these reports can turn out to be overblown (two of the 58 men arrested over Cologne were Syrians), it is unclear what the alternative would be. Policies that force Syrians underground have already greatly empowered Europe's network of human traffickers and thugs.

So far, Merkel seems to be standing her ground. Her home affairs spokesman, Stephan Mayer, told the BBC that Germany had room to improve on its asylum policy, but stressed each attack was different. 

He said: "Horrible things take place in Syria. And it is the biggest humanitarian catastrophe, so it is completely wrong to blame Angela Merkel, or her refugee policies, for these incidents." Many will do, all the same.