Labour triumphs in Corby by-election

Party wins seat from the Conservatives, while Lib Dems finish fourth behind the UK Independence Party.

Labour has just been declared the winner of the Corby by-election, gaining a seat from the Conservatives for the first time in such a contest since Wirral South in February 1997. The swing from the Tories was 12.8 per cent, around five points larger than that currently shown by the national opinion polls.

The Conservatives are dismissing the result as the kind of mid-term defeat that governments always suffer, but it's still notable that Corby has voted for the winning party in every general election since 1983. Labour has performed well enough for Ed Miliband to claim that he has a good chance of becoming the next prime minister. Turnout was a respectable 44.8 per cent, down from 69.2 per cent in 2010.

It was another disastrous by-election for the Lib Dems, who finished a poor fourth to Ukip and lost their deposit.

Here's the result.

Labour 17,267 votes 48.4% (+9.8%)

Conservative 9,476 votes 26.6% (-15.6%)

UK Independence Party 5,108 votes 14.3% (N/A)

Liberal Democrats 1,770 votes 5% (-9.5%)

British National Party 614 votes 1.7% (-3%)

Green Party 378 votes 1.1% (N/A)

 

Labour majority 7,791 (21.8%)

Turnout 35,665 votes 44.8%

We'll have more reaction and analysis on The Staggers shortly.

Labour leader Ed Miliband at the Labour conference in Manchester earlier this year. Photograph: Getty Images.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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PMQs review: Jeremy Corbyn turns "the nasty party" back on Theresa May

The Labour leader exploited Conservative splits over disability benefits.

It didn't take long for Theresa May to herald the Conservatives' Copeland by-election victory at PMQs (and one couldn't blame her). But Jeremy Corbyn swiftly brought her down to earth. The Labour leader denounced the government for "sneaking out" its decision to overrule a court judgement calling for Personal Independence Payments (PIPs) to be extended to those with severe mental health problems.

Rather than merely expressing his own outrage, Corbyn drew on that of others. He smartly quoted Tory backbencher Heidi Allen, one of the tax credit rebels, who has called on May to "think agan" and "honour" the court's rulings. The Prime Minister protested that the government was merely returning PIPs to their "original intention" and was already spending more than ever on those with mental health conditions. But Corbyn had more ammunition, denouncing Conservative policy chair George Freeman for his suggestion that those "taking pills" for anxiety aren't "really disabled". After May branded Labour "the nasty party" in her conference speech, Corbyn suggested that the Tories were once again worthy of her epithet.

May emphasised that Freeman had apologised and, as so often, warned that the "extra support" promised by Labour would be impossible without the "strong economy" guaranteed by the Conservatives. "The one thing we know about Labour is that they would bankrupt Britain," she declared. Unlike on previous occasions, Corbyn had a ready riposte, reminding the Tories that they had increased the national debt by more than every previous Labour government.

But May saved her jibe of choice for the end, recalling shadow cabinet minister Cat Smith's assertion that the Copeland result was an "incredible achivement" for her party. "I think that word actually sums up the Right Honourable Gentleman's leadership. In-cred-ible," May concluded, with a rather surreal Thatcher-esque flourish.

Yet many economists and EU experts say the same of her Brexit plan. Having repeatedly hailed the UK's "strong economy" (which has so far proved resilient), May had better hope that single market withdrawal does not wreck it. But on Brexit, as on disability benefits, it is Conservative rebels, not Corbyn, who will determine her fate.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.