Newsletter
Enter your email address here to receive updates from the team.
Jobs
Policy | Charity & Fundraising | Research | Education | Executive | Media | Social Care | Communications
User login
RSSThe Scottish independence campaign is losing ever more ground
One in four supporters have deserted the nationalist cause in 2012.
By Mark Diffley Published 25 October 2012 14:25
At last, they’re off. Last week’s "Edinburgh Agreement" ended nine months of argument between the Scottish and UK governments over how and when the independence referendum should take place, and signalled the start of a two-year campaign to determine Scotland’s constitutional future.
But where do the nationalist and unionist campaigns stand and what challenges lie ahead? Last week’s Ipsos MORI poll provides many of the answers.
The poll headline reveals that support for Scotland becoming independent continues to decline. In January 2012, almost four in ten of those of those who told us they would definitely vote in the ballot agreed that Scotland should be an independent country. Today, that figure stands at 30 per cent, meaning that one in four supporters have deserted the nationalist cause in 2012.
At least some of this change in public mood was predicted during a year in which a sense of ‘Britishness’ was celebrated with the Jubilee and the Olympics. And this week's so-called ‘Scomni-shambles’, with two Scottish National Party MSPs resigning over the party’s new policy on NATO membership and the First Minister’s integrity being questioned over the legal advice sought about an independent Scotland’s future in the EU, won’t have helped the nationalist cause.
It is clear that it is the nationalists who face the stiffer challenge in winning the hearts and minds of Scottish voters. Firstly, there is the fact that only a quarter of women female voters (24 per cent) support independence, a full 13-points lower than support among men. The appointment of deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon to run the ‘Yes’ campaign is clearly aimed at encouraging more women to change their minds, but the scale of the deficit makes this a huge task.
Then there is the economic argument. It is clear that voters have yet to be convinced that they will be better off if Scotland were to go it alone. Our January poll showed that this will be the most important issue in deciding the outcome of the referendum and that voters felt less secure about their finances when they considered what life would be like in an independent Scotland. The current poll illustrates that it’s owner-occupiers (28 per cent), those with children (27 per cent) and those who live in the most affluent areas of Scotland (23 per cent) who are the most lukewarm about the prospect of independence.
These challenges are magnified by what is happening to support for the SNP and to voter satisfaction with the performance of the First Minister. In terms of voting intention for the Holyrood parliament, Labour has now closed the gap with the SNP from 25 points in December 2011 to just five points now. And while Alex Salmond continues to have personal ratings which all other leaders can only dream of (50 per cent are satisfied), these are also heading in the wrong direction, having been at 62 per cent just under a year ago.
The ‘No’ campaign has had an easier ride of late yet still faces its own challenges in persuading voters that Scotland is ‘better together.’ Their current healthy lead could be vulnerable if they are unable to outline and persuade voters of the additional powers to be devolved to the Scottish Parliament in the event of a ‘no’ vote. The majority of Scots want decisions about taxation, welfare and benefits to be made at Holyrood. However, with the option of further devolution not appearing on the ballot paper, it is up to the ‘No’ camp to outline a united, coherent vision or risk alienating voters who want further devolution but who currently want to remain in the UK.
Overall, those working for an independent Scotland face the bigger challenge in winning public support. Their hope is that 2012’s feeling of ‘Britishness’ will be replaced by ‘Scottishness’ in 2014 with the Glasgow Commonwealth Games and the Bannockburn commemoration. The danger is that, by then, it may be too late.
Tags: Scottish independence SNP Alex Salmond Scotland
Related articles
Mark Diffley is research director of Ipsos-MORI Scotland. He tweets as @markdiffley1.
From the magazine
-
Ian Mulheirn -
Robert Skidelsky -
Felix Martin -
New Statesman -
Rafael Behr -
Ryan Gilbey -
Laurie Penny -
Alice O'Keeffe -
Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett
Elsewhere on the Blogosphere
- FT Westminster
- ConservativeHome
John Baron and Peter Bone table a cunning EU referendum amendment
- Labour List
Harrow Labour Group splits, as several councillors form “Independent Labour Group”
- Liberal Conspiracy
- Left Foot Forward
Benefit fraud accounts for just 0.7 per cent of welfare budget
Blogroll
- Alastair Campbell
- Benedict Brogan
- Coffee House
- Comment Central
- Conservative Home
- Dave's Part
- Gary Gibbon
- Guardian Politics
- Hopi Sen
- Iain Dale
- Labour List
- Labour Uncut
- Left Foot Forward
- Liberal Conspiracy
- Liberal Democrat Voice
- Luke Akehurst
- Neil Clark
- Next Left
- Our Kingdom
- Paul Waugh
- Penny Red
- Pickled Politics
- Political Betting
- Political Scrapbook
- Simon Fletcher
- The Bleeding Heart Show
- Think Politics
- UK Polling Report
Latest tweets
More from New Statesman
- Online writers:
- Steven Baxter
- Rowenna Davis
- David Allen Green
- Mehdi Hasan
- Nelson Jones
- Gavin Kelly
- Helen Lewis
- Laurie Penny
- The V Spot
- Alex Hern
- Martha Gill
- Alan White
- Samira Shackle
- Alex Andreou
- Nicky Woolf in America
- Bim Adewunmi
- Glosswitch
- Kate Mossman on pop
- Ryan Gilbey on Film
- Martin Robbins
- Rafael Behr
- Eleanor Margolis
- Tools and services:
- Polls
- Predictions
- Archive
- Magazine
- PDF edition
- RSS feeds
- Advertising
- Subscribe
- Special supplements
- Stockists
42 comments
You do realise that the UK has a bigger deficit proportionally than Scotland, which means effectively that without Scotland the rUK would have an even bigger deficit. Also the block grant to Scotland already takes account of debt payments which are a proportion of the UK's deficit. We have a double penalty -unable to secure our real wealth and having to pay extra to be in the UK.
Funny thing most of my Tory friends have chosen to live in Scotland and they are very English, of course some have vast estates up there, and see the Scottish Free medicare as a lifeline not to pay from their estates.
Now will you take all your piste artistes back from England, many that are claimants, many that have seven children and have seven different father's names. many that are door peeing streetscvm.
If you are proud of Scotland and do not want the English to pay for them, as have principles of short term oil boom,or the Royal Bank of Escotia's Ever Freddy, well take them all back and give the houses to the working English.
You do realise that the UK has a bigger deficit proportionally than Scotland, which means effectively that without Scotland the rUK would have an even bigger deficit. Also the block grant to Scotland already takes account of debt payments which are a proportion of the UK's deficit. We have a double penalty -unable to secure our real wealth and having to pay extra to be in the UK.
Can someone please inform me which polling group the former Hyde and Something MP is now working for since he challenged Gordon Brown. He become something alike the Works and Disabilities Minister. Apparently to enhance his chances of becoming an MP he made tea at Hyde Town Hall for the ladies of Labour, He was educated in France and went on to be at Oxbridge, where until he was an MP was hardly employable.
I cannot remember his name, but the did leave documents on a train open for all to view whilst he went down to the train dinery/bar which he calls a toilet.
I once saw a photograph of him in a local newspaper and then an apology off the newspaper as he had indeed never been there, but one of his constituency workers put his picture in with the group in an Adobe merge, it was to help people think he done something for once in his life other than climb a greasy pole to the bottom of politics.
Im sorry but the snp talk complete nonsense. If they were at least a bit honest and said look, some things may not go their way post independence then they might be more trustworthy, instead of saying that all will be swell, gold will grow in our backgardens and the international community will go out of their way to accomodate each and every demand we make if we separate ourselves from England Wales and Northern Ireland. Salmond and co are lying about at least some things, its just a question of how much they are lying about
I´m simply amazed that there is even a referendum on independence. It´s only 15 years since the devolution referendum and the majority from every district of Scotland showing the wish for a devolved Parliament.
Much more has been achieved in 15 years than the "devo-max" Parliament has achieved in Catalonia (as an example) in over 30 years.
When I was a teenager independence was laughed at in my area of Scotland. The SNP was perceived as a fringe party of kilted nutters. Many Labour voters liked the idea of an independent Scotland, but liked the idea of the UK more, including the NHS (now, thankfully fully in the hands of Holyrood) and the welfare system.
The momentum is towards independence. Maybe not in 2014. But certainly within my lifetime (ie before 2050, fingers crossed!).
Time will show this is not about one particular party but about one country evolving into a normal country.
I get the feeling that this article conforms to an accepted idea in the UK press that a referendum regarding Scottish independence is akin to a general election in which the choice is Labour v Conservative. When the Republic issue was mooted in Australia several years back,the proponents had to take and were able to take a long measured campaign, and did very well out of it. The truth is, even though Scots may well bge prouud of their nation and heritage, deciding to go for independence isn't something that crosses their minds daily, any more than being a Rebublic crosses the minds of Aussies each day. The outcome is much more likely to be decided on a water cooler debate:the conversation you have at work, and on how your friends and circle are going to vote--which makes it very different from an election outcome.The proponents have a year to get their message across and its an odds on bet that the punters won't REALLY have decided until the last minute.Independence referendums are rarely won on large majorites, which makes current polling pretty suspicious
I am a Scot living in Catalunya. How different from Scotland! The Catalans want independence, but can't have it, because of Spanish constitutional law. The Scots can have independence (the Edinburgh Agreement says so), but seem not to want it. Interestingly, the Catalans want independence, not because they think this will make them better off. They want it mainly because they are Catalans. Nearly one million people took to the streets on 11th September, Catalunya's National Day. I cannot imagine one million Scots ever congregating in one place to celebrate something. The Catalans go to the polls next month. Our President, Artur Mas, has said he will treat the result as a referendum on independence. We shall see! Meanwhile, it is dispiriting, to say the least, to see so much negativity being directed to Scotland, which simply wants to distance itself from permanent rule by right-wing governments of New Labour and the Coalition.
If you're a Scot, I'm the Pope, mate.
Oh we want it alright, the latest poll put support for independence at 37% which jumped to 52% if people thought that the Tories might be returned in 2015! It is misleading articles such as this which give the impression that Scots do not want independence. At the moment the media in Scotland led by the BBC is virulent in its opposition to independence. Things have got so bad that people are comparing our media with that of the Soviet Union e.g. Pravada. There is also talk of a non payment campaign re. paying the BBC licence fee.
Please do not believe everything you read in the British media, the movement for Scottish self determination is up against the British Establisment which has past expertise in demonising nationalist movements.
Have a look at the weight of polling evidence from Ipsos MORI and all the other regular pollsters in Scotland then ask yourself whether they're all wrong. Much can change in 2 years but if the referendum was tomorrow there's no way the Yes camp would win
How good to read a constructively put together comment from Chris Thomson and I agee with most of it.
I had hoped years ago that the creation of a Scottish Parliament wiould strengthen the ties of "Britishness" and lead to an English Parliament and further lead to a federal UK. I have been a member of the Campaign for an English Parliament since it's creation in the last century. Since then we've had Blair and Brown lead us into numerous wars and Cameron leading us into another as the United Kingdom. On top of which they've lead us to financial ruin.
I believe that their involvement in these wars were ego trips as are our weapons of mass destruction, at the big table with our "best buddies" as the UK. For that reason alone I wish Alex Salmond success but I fear that he is losing the arguement where he has not thought though everything concerning currency, Nato and the European Union and he needs to sharpen up.
No one would be able to buddie up to the Americans with reduced populations to the individual countries. I couldn't imagine an American President saying that as Northern Ireland or Wales are in full agreement with him he will "bring democracy" to so and so.
I do not recognise this poll at all - I don't believe it. It's like reading a poll that there's a surge in support for Nick Clegg - you know something is badly wrong.
If you go to the IPSOS-Mori webite you can see this poll and the series it is part of - they have them every 3 months or so. The trend is quite clear.
If you go to this site you can see that John is a member of SLab ... and suddenly everything about him is quite clear.
jruddy.wordpress.com
Does that mean he can't have an opinion? Deary me
It means he is not very likely to have an unbiased opinion.
It means he is not very likely to have an unbiased opinion.
It means he is not very likely to have an unbiased opinion.
From UK governments which have politically fragmented the Balkans, dismembered the MIddle-East and North Africa and are intent on regime change in foreign climes this is rich. [Suppose USSR should get a mention]
Should the Conservative Party alone, or in company with its 'beaters', win the next General Election that will be the test for the Celtic Fringe.
Please Sir, can you give me another kick in the p******s. Most grateful your High MIghtiness.
We're Scum!
Rab C Nesbitt
From UK governments which have politically fragmented the Balkans, dismembered the MIddle-East and North Africa and are intent on regime change in foreign climes this is rich. [Suppose USSR should get a mention]
Should the Conservative Party alone, or in company with its 'beaters', win the next General Election that will be the test for the Celtic Fringe.
Please Sir, can you give me another kick in the p******s. Most grateful your High MIghtiness.
We're Scum!
Rab C Nesbitt
Were Ipsos MORI the polling agency that gave labour a 20% lead ahead of the Scottish elections in 2011 before the SNP landslide or was it one of the others?
No - Ipsos MORI was the first pollster to recognise the SNP surge and was recognised as the most accurate pollster in the 2011 election - have a look on the website and do some reserach
If you recall correctly, while there were polls that showed a large Labour lead, as polling day got closer, the SNP gradually overhauled Labour, before several polls showed a large SNP lead.
It is quite revisionist to suggest that all polls right up to polling day showed a large Labour lead.
Like some women that grumble about their man, and when they have to make a decision - stay in situ and stop moaning.
It is one thing thinking of independence another when you have to go over the top and do the actual thing.
There have been two polls since last week.
The most recent of these is the Sunday Times poll which shows Yes votes at 37% and No votes at 45%, down from 58% in the Ipsos Mori poll...which to follow the peculiar logic in this article means "that one in four supporters have deserted the" unionist "cause in the last" week.
A google search reveals precisely one use of the term "Scomni-shambles" - in this article.
Combined with the dirt throwing at the SNP, this bizarre article makes it difficult to believe that Ipsos Mori is an unbiased pollster.
Google Scomnishambles and there are pages and pages of references - maybe you spelt it wrong
Pasted from this website. You are suggesting that I can't spell...Observ[o]r. "Not verified" has a particular relevance in your case.
The Sunday Time Poll is actually by panelbase, a relatively new company with no previous track record in terms of accuracy, nor adhering to the terms of the British Polling Council.
It is what is often termed a "voodoo poll".
"John Ruddy - The Sunday Times Poll is actually by panelbase, a relatively new company with no previous track record in terms of accuracy, nor adhering to the terms of the British Polling Council."
For the record, Panelbase is a member of the BPC. We weight our data based on demographics and recalled voting history and filter on 8-10 likely to vote. We were also the first company to put the SNP in the lead for Holyrood in 2011, as the trend turned away from Labour. We may be relatively new to political polling, but our results to date have generally been broadly in line with other longer-established companies.
Sorry Ivor but Panelbase were NOT the first to show the SNP surge - Ipsos MORI were the first and they did it in February 2011. This site does not permit links being posted but go to the Ipsos MORI Scotland website, look at their polling archive and look at their February 2011 Scottish poll. And if you want to see who the most accurate pollster in the elction was then go to the Scotland Votes website.
To be fair, I didn't claim that we were the first to report a "surge", I said we were the first to show the SNP in the lead. It was in the Sunday Times, and the Herald picked it up too. I can't post links here (NS is blocking them) but here are a couple of snippets from the Herald piece on April 4th 2011:
<<
.......The outlook for the SNP has changed significantly in the last month, however. Five weeks ago, a poll by TNS-BRMB gave Labour a 15-point lead in the constituency vote and a 10-point lead in the regional list.
Last Tuesday, another TNS-BRMB poll suggested the gap between the two parties had closed, with Labour and the SNP 38-37 in the constituency vote and tied at 35 on the regional list.>>>
We were in the right place at the right time, the trend was going towards the SNP and our poll caught them just has they hit the front. I'm not claiming we did something magic there, quite the opposite - that our methodology is sound and generally puts us broadly in line with other pollsters. But who knows where the independence debate and polls will go over the next two years.
But, to be fair, you were not the first to show the SNP in the lead - as I said earlier, go the Ipsos MORI Scotland website and look for their February 2011 poll - this had the SNP in the lead and was the first poll to do so. Please check this and you will will see.
Somehow managed to lose the first line of that report.....
<<>>
Cheers.
Not allowing me to c & p that sentence for some reason.. if you Google the headline you'll find the article - "SNP takes the lead for first time in latest election poll."
I am sorry that my original post has resulted in Panelbase being subjected to two abusive responses. They were too modest to point it out but they are the top rated pollster on this independent site: surveypolice.com/.
To deal with what my post has flushed up:
Posters apparently linked to SLab have made assertions that are demonstrably untrue.
There are two possibilities:
1. It is incompetence
2. They are liars
In support of 1.
"Observor" can't spell "observer" or apparently "election"
For the sake of 1. again, and balance:
wingsland.podgamer.com/lies-and-the-lying-liars-who-tell-them/
action4equalityscotland.blogspot.com/2012/03/give-dog-bad-name.html
wingsland.podgamer.com/anas-sarwar-is-a-liar/
wingsland.podgamer.com/anas-sarwar-is-still-a-liar/
Sorry but can you please point to where I was 'abusive' towards Panelbase? I wanted to point out an inaccuracy in that they were not the first pollster to spot the SNP surge in 2011 - how is that abusive for goodness sake? I'm sure Panelbase are good pollsters. You point out that they are highly ranked by surveypolice which is good for them but this only covers online surveys, while I believe some pollsters use other methods so it is an incomplete comparison. Most polls out recently from a range of pollsters show support for indpendence at around 30% - maybe this will change in the next 2 years but I firmly believe that these polls reflect current opinion.
Please think a bit before throwing around accusations of abuse. and accept that people can surely spell their blog names however they like!
The first post was factually wrong and accused Panelbase of conducting a "Voodoo Poll." In this context you have a lot of brass accusing me of being the one failing to think before making accusations.
Panelbase responded with a polite correction when they could reasonably have asked for a retraction.
You then waded in, with an assertion that they had made an untrue statement, which undermined the impact of their post, which I suspect is what you intended. I think this was bad manners at best.
I 'waded in' - deary me - I pointed out a factual inaccuracy which is hardly abusive. I would have thought that accusing the pollster from the original article of being baised is much more abusive, as well as being complete guff
Your "factual inaccuracy" appears to be wrong based on Panelbase's subsequent response, which was clearly substantiated by third party evidence. Feel free to suggest that the Herald got it wrong too.
Your second statement is also "complete guff", to borrow your elegant phrasing. I suggested that making statements based on absurd logic while repeating insults hurled by one side only is not a great idea if you want to look impartial.
Given that absurd logic and insults appear to form the core of your being, I now realise that this may have been a sensitive subject for you.
The SNP are being hammered in every argument and their unwillingness to tell us the truth about what they know about joining the EU and the EURO is having a detrimental effect on their campaign. It makes them look sneaky and that they have something to hide. The fact that even if Scotland were to be given ALL the oil money, which of course they wouldn't, at current spending there is a 9 billion a year deficit. So what's it going to be? Cuts? Cuts and tax rises or big tax rises for those working hard? They won't tell us but we are not stupid and we know that something has to give. It will be a " no" from me until they tell us as the idea of living in a high tax high spend permanently socialist country horrifies me.
The UK currently does have all the oil money and has had since the first drop was extracted in 1969 or whatever and still runs a proportionately higher deficit than Scotland. Your point is almost as nonsensical as the idea that the SNP are being hammered in every argument. Scottish independence is not about oil or the SNP. It's about what is best for the people who live there. If - as almost everybody does now - you accept that Scotland is a perfectly viable state the argument is not about why be independent it's about why stay with the UK. The problem that the 'No' campaign has is that it is built amost entirely on a series of scare-stories, straw men and misty-eyed calls to red, white and blue nostalgia.