Alex Andreou

Asking the questions others are too intelligent to ask

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It's not burdening our children with debt that should worry us

Leaving our children without assets is a far greater problem than "saddling" them with debt.

Demonstrators call for an end to the national debt. Photograph: Getty Images.
Demonstrators call for an end to the national debt outside Parliament last year. Photograph: Getty Images.

It is irresponsible to saddle our children with debt.

One of the most compelling, at least superficially, arguments for austerity. It is used globally; it resonates powerfully. After all, it appeals to the very best facets of human nature – the instinct to nurture; the wish to leave things better for future generations – and is, therefore, almost irresistible. But there are few things more dangerous than rhetoric designed to entangle the heart, while bypassing the brain.

Let us suppose that I knew, tomorrow I would be no more. The appointment has been made; the plane tickets to Geneva have been booked. If I were leaving behind my house to my child, encumbered as it is with a mortgage, would I worry? It is a huge amount of debt, but the house is worth almost double its mortgage. The interest is low. To look at that scenario and arrive at the conclusion I am “saddling my child with debt” would be highly irrational. I would have left them with positive equity.

It is illogical to assess the legacy we bequeath to the next generation, solely in terms of debt. Assets should form part of the equation.

This was precisely what our parents’ generation decided to do. And their parents’ before them. National debt, as a percentage of GDP, was much higher from the 20s to the 70s than it is now. But they made the positive choice of bequeathing it to us, as well as a world-class National Health Service, free education, thriving industry, bright prospects and a system of welfare which provided a safety net for the less fortunate.

Had they looked at debt in isolation, they would never have achieved any of these things. Luckily, they did not. They left us with positive equity.

The proposition put forward by the coalition government in support of their programme of cuts, is the bequest of a clean slate. In the current economic climate, however, a clean slate means clean of assets, not clear of debt.

With the economy stagnant or shrinking, the reality is that this government will fail to make a dent in the deficit and actually increase debt. According to the OBR our annual deficit is falling at exactly the same rate it was projected to do before any of these cuts. The national debt is projected to rise by a staggering half a trillion pounds, even by the most lenient of estimates. The OBR now admits that austerity is hurting the economy. The IMF now admits that austerity is hurting the economy.

On the other hand, there is another, even gloomier forecast. By squeezing ordinary people, by forcing them to remortgage, to use credit cards, to run to the nearest payday lender, private household debt is predicted to balloon by an additional half a trillion pounds.

So, forget this insidious idea that we might leave our children with a clean slate. It is fantasy. In fact, under this government, we will leave our children with at least one trillion more debt than we had in 2010. The only intelligent conversation to be had, is whether we leave our children with the assets, skills, environment and tools to manage that debt or not.

Not all asset stripping is fiscally responsible in the long term. Not every expense incurred results in debt. Off-the-cuff, misconceived policies to try and regulate a rampant energy industry are ample demonstration of that truth; a conservative government flailing in a futile attempt to control the profiteering which resulted from another conservative government’s privatisation programme.

We are paying through the nose, both in terms of tickets, subsidies and maintenance, for a rail network franchise system which is manifestly failing. Meanwhile, the part of the network which has been state-run for the last few years (as a result of the last botched franchise), is better and cheaper than it was in private hands and turning a profit.

We pay to bail out private banks, then complain that they are not lending to SMEs, when we actually part-own two of the biggest. Nationalisation is both a rational solution and a dirty word.

Meanwhile, we are allowing these failed experiments to go on, to expand even; the self-interested privatisation of the NHS, the cut-price sale of local council assets and social housing, the dismantling of the welfare state, the farming out of police and prison services, the poisonous influence of profit on our schools. Within five years, the UK will be spending less on public services than any developed nation.

Make no mistake. What is actually being proposed, is leaving our children with negative equity. The debt will still be there, but the assets will be gone. Important assets at that, the absence of which will translate into higher living costs, in perpetuity. The sale of state housing inflates rents. Lack of a welfare system deflates wages. Tuition fees enslave the next generation to financial institutions which we know to be corrupt. Healthcare bills are the single biggest cause of bankruptcy in the US.

Maybe this is the future that we genuinely want. But let us consider all the arguments, instead of wielding an axe at any expense with no thought of whether it is necessary or cost-effective. Let us look at debt in conjunction with the assets and values that would also form part of our bequest.

Our current predicament is precarious. Even more critical, then, to make rational, informed and brave choices - rather than terrified, ill-thought ones. For our sake and that of our children.

26 comments

Nige's picture

It is burdening our children.

And here's a simple analogy. There was an undisputed house price boom in recent years, a bubble caused by lots of factors. This bubble burst spectacularly and house prices fell.

Imagine yourself back a few years. Your house price has doubled, in the midst of a largely favourable economy. You buy a house at the peak price. No one seriously imagines that this would be a problem for 'our children' because every thing is going so well. But then it burst. Your new house is worth a lot less.

That's an analogy.

We are now in the middle of another bubble. Caused by a lot of factors. But rising population, the end of cheap oil, uncertainty over food production, chaotic weather will all contribute to the bursting of this current bubble.

And then it will be our debt that is unrepayable that will be a real and present burden on 'our children' .

How different every thing will look then.
Nige

hobson's picture

The Office for Budget Responsibility's report makes interesting reading. You state that "The OBR now admits that austerity is hurting the economy", which isn't quite true as it has said from the start that reducing spending and increasing VAT was likely to slow economic growth. However, it has now said that the impact may have been greater than it originally forecast, but it probably wasn't.

Specifically, it said: "We clearly cannot rule out the possibility that the unexpected weakness of economic growth over the past two years can be explained in part by the fiscal consolidation acting as a greater drag than we had assumed. But unexpectedly stubborn inflation looks a better proximate explanation for weak real consumption in 2011 (especially as nominal consumption has been broadly in line with our forecast) and deteriorating export markets seem to offer a better explanation for the more recent weakness of net trade. Beyond that it would be hard to distinguish between the fiscal consolidation having a greater impact than expected (for example on business investment) and other factors, such as anxiety regarding the stability of the eurozone and the ongoing disruption of the financial sector. The latter might also help to explain why the weakness of actual GDP growth appears to have been mirrored so quickly in the weakness of potential output growth, if that has been correctly estimated."

That's from the OBR report (which I would like to link to here as a service to thers but when I tried, my comment triggered a spam filter and was rejected!!) rather than the Guardian story about the report which you link to in your article. May I suggest you consider linking directly to source material in future? I can't be the only reader who prefers to look at material directly rather than the Guardian's interpretation!, interesting though that is!

William Brown's picture

Well said Daniel J.

Until these dogma riddled, meat heads understand that party politics are the cause of the problems that this, and future generations are facing, the better.

Unfortunately, successive Governments have only been interested in being 'in power' and serving the best interests of their pals and sponsors rather than doing what is clearly the best for the country and its people. We can only hope that future politicians come to office in order to serve, rather than to merely rule. The current crop, of either 'side' are only interested in continuing their divisive strategies in order to divide and rule - looking at the comments from others on this article, they are still being depressingly successful.

Compopoly 's picture

To really improve the lot of our children and future generation, we need to both free up their time and then provide them the resource to use that time to maximise their potential. This isn't a question of political parties, because as most senior politicians will tell you off the record that they haven't got much room to move - as they need to keep everyone happy - for their own and their parties goals. With just a few organisations controlling the raw materials used to produce everything that we consume and gradually automating everyone out of jobs, we need to reverse this marginalization. By creating a COMPOPOLY (consumer owned buying monopoly) to regain control of raw material pricing and encouraging the build of AUTOMATED local production of the things that we consume - food, energy, manufactured products - this would free up ourselves and our children from the shackles of poorly paid work. We could then work to maximise everyone's potential in tackling the really big challenges ahead - tackling global warming and pollution whilst maintaining the rise in living standards - by expanding out into the rest of the universe or perhaps using virtual worlds to fulfil demand. My book - Compopoly - deals with the problems and solutions in greater depth. It is available in ebook or hardcopy versrions via amazon.com or lulu.com.

Compopoly 's picture

To really improve the lot of our children and future generation, we need to both free up their time and then provide them the resource to use that time to maximise their potential. This isn't a question of political parties, because as most senior politicians will tell you off the record that they haven't got much room to move - as they need to keep everyone happy - for their own and their parties goals. With just a few organisations controlling the raw materials used to produce everything that we consume and gradually automating everyone out of jobs, we need to reverse this marginalization. By creating a COMPOPOLY (consumer owned buying monopoly) to regain control of raw material pricing and encouraging the build of AUTOMATED local production of the things that we consume - food, energy, manufactured products - this would free up ourselves and our children from the shackles of poorly paid work. We could then work to maximise everyone's potential in tackling the really big challenges ahead - tackling global warming and pollution whilst maintaining the rise in living standards - by expanding out into the rest of the universe or perhaps using virtual worlds to fulfil demand. My book - Compopoly - deals with the problems and solutions in greater depth. It is available in ebook or hardcopy versrions via amazon.com or lulu.com.

Posh Tosh's picture

Bankers children will not be blighted by the actions of David Cameron, a son of a banker!

Hugh C Markey's picture

Alex Andreou's cogent argument on debt is one which we have come across in the past.
We have managed to locate a similar explanation put forward in the 1998 publication 'The Grip of Death".
Michael Rowbotham puts the case in response to S J Bailey's remarks that growth of national debts suggests "intergenerational inequity in that the current generation is enjoying a higher standard of living( ie consumption ) at the expense of future generations, who will have to pay higher taxes in order to service the public debt used to finance the extra consumption....there is a question about the morality of the current generation living off the presumed affluence of future generations".
[ Our interjection - Heard about Original Sin ]
Rowbotham's respone: "Of all the explanations offered for the national debt, this suggestion, that they represent the current generation living 'at the expense of' future
generations is the most ridiculous, and has the hollowest ring. Do the economists who present these theories ever read the newspapers? Has income tax risen since Nigel Lawson imposed monetarism on the nation? [VAT's another matter, of course.]
Each generation is told that they must ,tighten their belts', and that they must 'face the harsh realities of life, that the nation is spending more than it earns.
Are we really constantly borrowing from the future? If so what one earth have we borrowed?
It would be far more accurate to say that the present generation is living at the expense of < past > generations, in the sense that we benefit from their endeavours, just as future generations should benefit from our economic efforts.
National debts have existed since the seventeenth century, have mounted steadily since their inception and have proved themselves utterly unrepayable by this or any other generation.
The nations of the world were only able to escape the worldwide depression of the 1930s as governments, one after the other, were forced to accept a steady increase in their national debt by running an annual budget deficit.
As soon as an individual commences employment he/she works for a week, a fortnight or a month without pay. A nice little earner for the employer as Del Boy would say.
Thank goodness for Mrs T. She put more balls on the High Street so the strivers could pawn something to tide them over.
Now you can even get credit on your future wages. Enough of that 'pie in the sky' malarky! Worked in the past - not now!

Live Now, Pay Later

Benjamin Rae's picture

Good article. Refreshing clarity and common sense

Tony Montana's picture

The sooner we oust this uk calition government the better they are lyers hyporcrytes overpaid scum

Tony Montana's picture

The sooner we oust this uk calition government the better they are lyers hyporcrytes overpaid scum

Indu Pendent's picture

What a load of tripe.

Under Labour the divide between rich and poor grew substantially (under the coalition it has fallen). Most of the personal assets which are not tied up in pension funds are either in the money supply or concentrated on a small proportion of the population. Debts, especially the national debt which we share equally, impacts the least well off the most. The solution is not to increase the public and private debt which only disadvantages the least well off.

Its cynical Labour posturing to try to sell the idea we should not worry about borrowing. It tries fool enough people like Gordon and Balls managed to do that we can afford to borrow, spend and enjoy now because interest rates will always be low and we will never need to repay the money in our lifetime. Part of the approach is to hide the numbers and distort the truth through spin.

The truth discovered after they left office is that Labour borrowed and spent an unbelievably massive £600bn mostly before the banking crisis. Was it done in the interests of our children or was it not to manipulate voters to cling to power?

Terry Chillean (miner)'s picture

I am sheeple hear me roar
with a viewpoint easy to ignore.

Just because you read and believe articles
that confirm your blinkered view
doesn't mean it equates to truth...

Please read this article again and
show some sense understanding...not blatent denial.

Ludus57's picture

I agree wholeheartedly with your condemnation of the widening gap between what we now understand to be the 1% and those at the lower income levels, because of the neoliberalism that Blair and Brown were devoted to continuing, and, while Milliband is still encumbered with relics of the old "New Labour" regime such as Ed Balls et al, it is still touch and go as to whether Labour will have the courage to blow the final whistle on a vastly discredited socio-economic model that the voodoo of free markets represents.

However, I am intrigued by the provenance of your figure of £600 billion. Could you clarify my thinking by explaining exactly what it was, and where it went? Is it in anyway connected to the £1.3 trillion that prevented the possible supernova explosion of RBS and LLoyds-HBOS? Enlightenment begins with a question.

stevem1940's picture

Absolutely wrong. In the years prior to the banking crisis Labour paid back debt in the first two years in office,then broke even in the third. They then they ran deficits around 2.2 % and 3.3% . Those deficits were lower than in most of the 18 years of previous Tory rule. Do your homework before making yourself an utter fool. The problems we face today lie with bankers who not onlt brought the world to its' knees but knew they were doing so in the full knowledge the taxpayer would bail them out.

stevem1940's picture

Absolutely wrong. In the years prior to the banking crisis Labour paid back debt in the first two years in office,then broke even in the third. They then they ran deficits around 2.2 % and 3.3% . Those deficits were lower than in most of the 18 years of previous Tory rule. Do your homework before making yourself an utter fool. The problems we face today lie with bankers who not onlt brought the world to its' knees but knew they were doing so in the full knowledge the taxpayer would bail them out.

Daniel J's picture

Yawn. Typical partisan moronic trash. Keynesian economics has nothing to do with party politics, it just deals with a post-financial crisis depression in a pragmatic way that has nothing to do with ideology. It is you that is cynical my friend.

RH47's picture

An excellent, concise summary of the bleeding (in more than one sense) obvious.

Problem : how is it that so many in this (allegedly) advanced(?) industrial(??) society find the bleeding obvious so difficult to grasp?

Perhaps it's the over-dominance of private education. A sure recipe for dumbing down.

Daniel J's picture

They, the austeritians, say that it is morally wrong to straddle future generations with debt, yet they are more than willing to screw-up the futures of today's younger generation with their austerity. Their argument is based on a fraud, moreover, it is counter-productive. As Keynes would say, their argument is not just morally wrong, it's stupid!

Malcolm McLean's picture

Education is an asset, but only if it is effective, and there are serious question marks over the effectiveness of Stagte education. NHS spending largely isn't - the hospital building themselves are clearly assets, but day to day expenditure is not. Similarly welfare doesn't produce any assets worthy of the name.

Alex Andreou's picture

A narrow, I hope misguidedly rather than deliberately, view of assets.

Day to day NHS, education or welfare expenditure itself is, of course, not an asset. My piece clearly identifies it as an outgoing.

However, a healthy, well-educated, highly-skilled, tax-paying, flexible workforce is an asset; the biggest asset of the lot, when it comes to generating GDP. Wouldn't you say?

Malcolm McLean's picture

Education is an asset, but only if it is effective, and there are serious question marks over the effectiveness of Stagte education. NHS spending largely isn't - the hospital building themselves are clearly assets, but day to day expenditure is not. Similarly welfare doesn't produce any assets worthy of the name.

georgeirvin's picture

The key point---unclear in an otherwise commendable piece above---is that because 80% of Govt borrowing is domestic, what appears as a 'liability' on Govt books also appears as an 'asset' for the private sector bond purchaser. The notion that increased govt borrowing from the public 'saddles our chaildren with debt' is wong. Moreover, the Tory minister who jumped on this bandwagon knows that---so the notion is not just wrong, but deliberately so.

Indu Pendent's picture

This analysis isnt correct.

Bonds are not held by the general public (our kids) but the national debt is. Further, only a proportion of Government borrowing is funded by bonds owned by people and entities withing the local UK economy.

Increased govt borrowing does saddle our kids. Wont future tax revenues from ordinary people be used to repay the debt?

TOMDAVIES32's picture

Agree with Shinsei. Inter-generational inequality has been by caused by the bursting of an asset price bubble.

Shinsei67's picture

I thought comparing a national economy to a mortgage (as is the wont of Tory MPs) was generally frowned upon as economic illiteracy.

However, notwithstanding that, you are of course right that both sides of the balance sheet needed to be taken into consideration.

The problem surely is though that whilst debt has exploded in recent years following the banking crisis there hasn't been any commensurate improvement in health, education or industrial capacity.

To rewrite your Geneva analogy. Five years ago you'd have left your well-paid kids with a 200k house and an £80k mortgage. Today you are leaving your kids (who are now on part time work on lower pay) with a £170k house, a £120k mortgage and a builder telling them that the roof needs £20k spent on it.

Alex Andreou's picture

I don't compare a national economy to a mortgage in any significant way. I give a practical example of debt offset by asset.

While figures are interesting, I think you are missing the point. Selling the house for a quid without having it valued, is probably the wrong choice. Especially if you end up still owing the £120k of the mortgage. Don't you think?

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