The number of people unable to find full-time work appears to have peaked. Photograph: Getty Images.
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New employment data suggests an approaching uplift for the UK economy

The decline since November 2013 was the largest 3 month fall since 1992.

The wisdom of the Bank of England’s decision to move the goalposts on forward guidance, away from the single metric of the ILO 3-monthly average unemployment rate to a more holistic range of economic indicators, has been brought into stark relief by the latest employment data, released on 16 April.

The headline rate fell unexpectedly to 6.9 per cent, its lowest level since Feb 2009, from 7.2 per cent last month, and well below the expectated 7.1 per cent. The more contemporaneous Claimant Count Rate, fell to 3.4 per cent in March from 3.5 per cent in February, presaging further falls in the ILO rate next month and taking this measure to its lowest level since November 2008 - the pit of the financial crisis.

The unemployment rate for the single month of February was 6.6 per cent, meaning that the decline since November’s 7.4 per cent was the largest 3 month fall since 1992, and an unemployment rate of 6.6 per cent is getting uncomfortably close to the Bank of England’s own NAIRU estimate of 6 to 6.5 per cent, so that one of her new favoured indicators, the amount of labour slack in the economy, may be disappearing rather quickly.

The last BOE Quarterly Inflation Report, in February, forecast unemployment at 6.9 per cent at the end of Q1. Well, we’re already there and sure to be below that if March’s single month reading stays below 7.0 per cent.

However, there are pockets of less impressive news buried within the report. Average Weekly Earnings for February, now very closely watched by the BOE as a leading indicator for inflation, disappointed a little at 1.7 per cent, up against an expectated 1.8 per cent, but were still up 1.4 per cent in January - and I would expect further increases over the coming months; for the first time in nearly six years, weekly earnings have finally overtaken inflation. There is still some way to go however; as at Q4 real wages were still 6.5 per cent below their pre-crisis peak. The average work week fell, somewhat inexplicably, from 32.2 hours to 32.0, which won’t impress the Monetary Policy Committee.

Finally, although the rise in employment, at 239k, and in the participation rate, from 63.6 per cent to 63.8 per cent, both looked like great news, one can pick holes and point to the composition of the 239k gain; only 45k were full-time employee jobs and self-employment grew by 146K in the three months to February. However, it looks like number of people working part-time because they could not get a full-time job has peaked, which is very healthy.

All-in-all, these statistics alone, nor the recent raft of other encouraging indicators such as house prices, PMI’s, Industrial Production and Retail Sales, will not yet be enough to break the MPC’s unanimity when it comes to keeping rates at 0.5 per cent, but if the trend continues - with annualized growth approaching 4 per cent, then the minutes of June or July’s MPC meeting could make very interesting reading.

Chairman of  Saxo Capital Markets Board

An Honours Graduate from Oxford University, Nick Beecroft has over 30 years of international trading experience within the financial industry, including senior Global Markets roles at Standard Chartered Bank, Deutsche Bank and Citibank. Nick was a member of the Bank of England's Foreign Exchange Joint Standing Committee.

More of his work can be found here.

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Inside Big Ben: why the world’s most famous clock will soon lose its bong

Every now and then, even the most famous of clocks need a bit of care.

London is soon going to lose one of its most familiar sounds when the world-famous Big Ben falls silent for repairs. The “bonging” chimes that have marked the passing of time for Londoners since 1859 will fall silent for months beginning in 2017 as part of a three-year £29m conservation project.

Of course, “Big Ben” is the nickname of the Great Bell and the bell itself is not in bad shape – even though it does have a huge crack in it.

The bell weighs nearly 14 tonnes and it cracked in 1859 when it was first bonged with a hammer that was way too heavy.

The crack was never repaired. Instead the bell was rotated one eighth of a turn and a lighter (200kg) hammer was installed. The cracked bell has a characteristic sound which we have all grown to love.

Big Ben strikes. UK Parliament.

Instead, it is the Elizabeth Tower (1859) and the clock mechanism (1854), designed by Denison and Airy, that need attention.

Any building or machine needs regular maintenance – we paint our doors and windows when they need it and we repair or replace our cars quite routinely. It is convenient to choose a day when we’re out of the house to paint the doors, or when we don’t need the car to repair the brakes. But a clock just doesn’t stop – especially not a clock as iconic as the Great Clock at the Palace of Westminster.

Repairs to the tower are long overdue. There is corrosion damage to the cast iron roof and to the belfry structure which keeps the bells in place. There is water damage to the masonry and condensation problems will be addressed, too. There are plumbing and electrical works to be done for a lift to be installed in one of the ventilation shafts, toilet facilities and the fitting of low-energy lighting.

Marvel of engineering

The clock mechanism itself is remarkable. In its 162-year history it has only had one major breakdown. In 1976 the speed regulator for the chimes broke and the mechanism sped up to destruction. The resulting damage took months to repair.

The weights that drive the clock are, like the bells and hammers, unimaginably huge. The “drive train” that keeps the pendulum swinging and that turns the hands is driven by a weight of about 100kg. Two other weights that ring the bells are each over a tonne. If any of these weights falls out of control (as in the 1976 incident), they could do a lot of damage.

The pendulum suspension spring is especially critical because it holds up the huge pendulum bob which weighs 321kg. The swinging pendulum releases the “escapement” every two seconds which then turns the hands on the clock’s four faces. If you look very closely, you will see that the minute hand doesn’t move smoothly but it sits still most of the time, only moving on each tick by 1.5cm.

The pendulum swings back and forth 21,600 times a day. That’s nearly 8m times a year, bending the pendulum spring. Like any metal, it has the potential to suffer from fatigue. The pendulum needs to be lifted out of the clock so that the spring can be closely inspected.

The clock derives its remarkable accuracy in part from the temperature compensation which is built into the construction of the pendulum. This was yet another of John Harrison’s genius ideas (you probably know him from longitude fame). He came up with the solution of using metals of differing temperature expansion coefficient so that the pendulum doesn’t change in length as the temperature changes with the seasons.

In the Westminster clock, the pendulum shaft is made of concentric tubes of steel and zinc. A similar construction is described for the clock in Trinity College Cambridge and near perfect temperature compensation can be achieved. But zinc is a ductile metal and the tube deforms with time under the heavy load of the 321kg pendulum bob. This “creeping” will cause the temperature compensation to jam up and become less effective.

So stopping the clock will also be a good opportunity to dismantle the pendulum completely and to check that the zinc tube is sliding freely. This in itself is a few days' work.

What makes it tick

But the truly clever bit of this clock is the escapement. All clocks have one - it’s what makes the clock tick, quite literally. Denison developed his new gravity escapement especially for the Westminster clock. It decouples the driving force of the falling weight from the periodic force that maintains the motion of the pendulum. To this day, the best tower clocks in England use the gravity escapement leading to remarkable accuracy – better even than that of your quartz crystal wrist watch.

In Denison’s gravity escapement, the “tick” is the impact of the “legs” of the escapement colliding with hardened steel seats. Each collision causes microscopic damage which, accumulated over millions of collisions per year, causes wear and tear affecting the accuracy of the clock. It is impossible to inspect the escapement without stopping the clock. Part of the maintenance proposed during this stoppage is a thorough overhaul of the escapement and the other workings of the clock.

The Westminster clock is a remarkable icon for London and for England. For more than 150 years it has reminded us of each hour, tirelessly. That’s what I love about clocks – they seem to carry on without a fuss. But every now and then even the most famous of clocks need a bit of care. After this period of pampering, “Big Ben” ought to be set for another 100 or so years of trouble-free running.

The Conversation

Hugh Hunt is a Reader in Engineering Dynamics and Vibration at the University of Cambridge.

This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.