This is no time to give up on the euro

All the signs of the eurozone crisis are that quite soon there will be just two currencies still in

British political divisions on Europe have, for half a century, run long and deep. Opinion within the coalition parties, however, is coalescing around a hardline position as the eurozone crisis intensifies. David Cameron muses that powers ceded to Brussels should be reclaimed. Nick Clegg declares that, had Britain adopted his party's policy a decade ago and joined the euro, it would have been a "huge, huge error". Yet Labour under Ed Miliband and Ed Balls appears to have little to say on Europe, other than to insinuate that Euroscepticism is a consensus view.

Labour's reticence is economically misguided and politically pusillanimous. There were design flaws in the euro that were predictable and need to be remedied rapidly: that much is clear. Yet the notion that the necessary reforms will lead to a European superstate and that Britain should redefine its constitutional position with the EU is absurd and damaging. There are big economic costs to the Conservatives' dogmatism and the Lib Dems' failure to restrain it.

The crisis of the euro is severe but there is no reason that it should be terminal. Right-wing pundits who see in it the collapse of the integrationist scheme are, like the old militant seers of the collapse of capitalism, letting ideology run ahead of reason. Monetary union is not the cause of the crisis. Done properly, it may help insulate member states from disruptive volatility in the international capital markets.

Devaluation derby

The reason for the crisis goes back to the collapse of the western banking system between 2007 and 2009. The cause is the same - too much debt. The downgrading of Italy's credit rating by Standard & Poor's reflects a long-standing problem. Italy's public debt is equivalent to roughly 120 per cent of GDP. Political failure to deal with it and a weakening outlook for growth have caused investors to demand higher returns to compensate them for the risk of holding Italian government bonds.

Greece is an exceptional case, where public accounts were wildly inaccurate and too few paid the taxes needed to support an extensive public sector. But the ructions in other indebted economies, notably Ireland and Spain, have ominously familiar characteristics: the liberalisation of financial and property sectors, prompting a construction boom and an explosion of bank lending. There was nothing inevitable about these developments. They might have been anticipated and curbed; and they did not occur in other countries of the eurozone periphery. They are prominent features, too, of the recent economic history of the UK.

The indebted eurozone economies now face a prolonged squeeze on living standards. Because the option of external devaluation is not open to them, their only option is to cut costs and spending. However, it would be a mistake to suppose that if Greece were able to devalue its currency, that would resolve its crisis.

Devaluation can work by raising import prices and thus cutting real wages, provided that nominal wages remain constant. The postwar experience of the UK is not an encouraging precedent. Membership of the euro is imposing on Greece a much-needed discipline to resolve its problems directly. Leaving the euro would make the position of these weaker eco­nomies worse, as their debt is overwhelmingly priced in euros. Nor is the suddenly fashionable notion that Germany will leave the euro likely to happen. The resulting exchange-rate appreciation would damage Germany's export growth and prove far more expensive than the cost of the eurozone bailouts.

The fundamental problem of the euro is the lack of a fiscal dimension. Successful currency unions, such as the US, have mechanisms for fiscal transfers from members that are thriving to those that are struggling. The eurozone does not have a credible set of fiscal rules or an emergency lender. Hence, the crisis is being dealt with using inadequate expedients that are unsustainable, because the debt burdens of indebted countries are rising as living standards fall. For the long term, more permanent arrangements are needed. In the short term, there will need to be a lot of debt restructuring and monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank.

Debt crises are a known problem. In the early 1990s, a series of 18 agreements, known as the Brady Plan, defused the Latin American debt crisis through debt forgiveness and some new lending. European policymakers will have to come round to something similar but this will hardly substantiate the Eurosceptics' nightmare of a European state. Nor would a sovereign default necessarily undermine the euro, any more than a default by California on its nearly $50bn of municipal bonds would spell the end of the dollar.

On the home front

In the meantime, there are problems closer to home. The IMF recently slashed its UK growth forecasts to 1.1 per cent this year and 1.6 per cent in 2012. British policy combines extremely loose monetary policy, in which inflation is tolerated though it is far above the target rate, and very tight fiscal policy. The weakness of growth means that something will have to give. If the targets for deficit reduction are not met, investors may suddenly start to demand a higher-risk premium for holding sterling-denominated assets. The idea that a floating exchange rate is some sort of axiom of left-wing policy is unlikely to survive the experience.

Meanwhile, whatever economic pain the eurozone periphery faces, its members can at least be confident of one thing. They can implement reforms without fearing a run on the currency. The euro has gained the status of a reserve currency. The great sovereign disasters of the financial crisis have been Iceland and Hungary, outside the euro. Their experience is one reason that smaller European nations will continue to seek entry to the euro. In another generation, it is plausible that only two currencies will remain in western and central Europe: the euro and sterling. Labour, having done little for the European project in the past 60 years, will doubtless still be trying to make up its mind.

Oliver Kamm is a leader writer on the Times

27 comments

WallaceNeville's picture

Of course that the problem with the euro is a 'lack of a fiscal dimension'; though that's an understatement and a half. The fact is that fiscal policy and monetary policy need to be much more closely enmeshed at a state level. That means it's basically 'double or quits' time for the Euro project. If it's the former, it's hard to see how UK membership as it currently stands remains tenable. At most, it could akin to Canada in NAFTA, with a United States of Europe in all but name - and that does not seem a likely prospect. http://www.grantsforcollege101.com/

john woods's picture

My adoration for Margaret Thatcher only grows greater when I think she kept us out of the Euro cock up.

Bob's picture

Well said, Oliver Kamm. The comments above leave little doubt that Little Englandism is alive and well on the left as well as the right - and now it seems, following Clegg's turnaround, in the centre too. And the invective is on a par with Peter Obourne's pathetically obnoxious and ultra-boorish dismissal of an EU spokesman as "an idiot" on Newsnight last night (Wednesday).

SadObserver's picture

“Devaluation can work by raising import prices and thus cutting real wages, provided that nominal wages remain constant. The postwar experience of the UK is not an encouraging precedent.”

Not so. When I grew up in England in the forties a bus ride from my house to the centre of town cost 2½d. The major financial concern was the “Sterling Balances.” A few years later when I visited, that same bus ride cost almost £1 and those balances were no longer an issue.

Borrowing almost forty bus rides and repaying with a little over one certainly works from one point of view: almost as well as the German procedure of blowing the whistle on the ReischsMark and starting over with the DM.

SadObserver's picture

Correction: almost 100 bus rides. [How soon we forget]

Steffan John's picture

Hello Oliver,

I used to follow your writing pretty closely before you went behind the wall, so it's good to hear your views from the other side of it.

Of course that the problem with the euro is a 'lack of a fiscal dimension'; though that's an understatement and a half. The fact is that fiscal policy and monetary policy need to be much more closely enmeshed at a state level.

That means it's basically 'double or quits' time for the Euro project. If it's the former, it's hard to see how UK membership as it currently stands remains tenable. At most, it could akin to Canada in NAFTA, with a United States of Europe in all but name - and that does not seem a likely prospect.

As for Greece, I think it's beyond doubt now that it's in its best interests to take the latter option and default. A bail-out won't really bail out the country; it'll only bail out the European bankers who were foolish enough to lend money to a state which was clearly poorly governed.

In other words, the folly of foreign bankers will be shouldered by the Greek people, who will never be able to pay back the debts, not least the austerity measures which are being imposed on it by foreign institutions.

This is no way a fair, democratic, or productive option, yet people are still stuck in the same thinking that predated the 2007 crash. Like the banking boom, this thinking can't go on forever, and indeed, things that can't go on forever, don't.

Philip Davies's picture

But it wasn't Thatcher who kept us out of the Euro. That was more Major and then Brown.

James's picture

The writer lacks a basic knowledge of economics and idiotically enjoins us to pursue further the very same things that created this debt in the first place.
Once upon a time The New Statemen was a place for qualified and serious commentary. It's now commisioning articles from people who would be below average at a tabloid.

Gwyn Williams's picture

Bernanke is a student of the depression (1928 - 31). He sees that the first to abandon the gold standard (revalue it´s currency) will be the first to recover, so on to the recapitalization of the banking/financial sector, QE1, QE2, etc. The massive injections devalue the USD, commodity and food prices multiply everywhere, more poor people slide into poverty, Beggar thy neighbour 2010/11 is in full flow and noone says anything of consequence. We are governed by arseholes or selfservers. Which is it?

Michael C Feltham's picture

One of the original problems with the European project and more particularly with Britain's entry to was a duopoly of misinformation: on the one side, government deliberately concealing the truth: and on the other, mainstream media of its (mainly broadsheets and tabloids and the BBC), using "Experts" to both confuse and brainwash electorates with the journalist's own ignorance, lack of core knowledge and politically driven garbage.

This process still continues, it appears!

In the past 20 years, I have read more utter tripe, masquerading as "Informed Opinion and Analysis", on the Eurozone and its problems than ever before in my life.

And this epic probably takes the biscuit!

The Euro was hugely flawed from its inception, Mr Kamm: since unlike its precursors, Snake, Super Snake and more critically, ERM, if failed to contain Divergence Criteria, in its structure. Thus the entering states value equivalence to the DM, were set in stone.

It is a simple fact of economic life that different economies progress and regress at different rates and by differing degrees of variance: and the composite economies of the Eurozone members, are hugely disparate.

The second Achille's Heel in the dynamic.

Next to consider is how contemporaneous Fiat Currencies are moderated and controlled: the critical twin levers are Base Rate and Money Supply.

However both of these correctional methodologies were withheld from member states, and preserved only for the ECB: a major and critical flaw, since it created the One-Size-Fits-All system we see today.

Thus the only mechanisms left to individual member states were fiscal: i.e. taxation and sovereign borrowing.

The seeds of self-destruction, were thus sown in the Euro from its inception.

The spavined and dysfunctional monetary system can only work, where and when successful member states shovel buckets loads of cash to the least well performing: yet Germany, the most successful, now shows terminal signs of "Charity Fatigue" from its voting taxpayers.

Face it: this whole sorry debacle has been simply an exercise in political assembly of an ideological Sacred Cow: and once perceived as terminally sick, the proponents and slavish supporters are too proud to call in the vet and phone the knackers Yard!

Worse, the collective Ivory Tower Dwellers have become so determined to prove they are right and the markets wrong, they have created a hugely synthetic and financially moronic rescue agency, the EFSF, which they now seek to indebt with trillions!

Which a majority of them simply do not have!

The bottom line is Germany would in all probability be called on to honour circa 50% of the fresh sovereign debt, incurred by this new "Solution": since Italy, Spain, et al's "Guarantees" are structurally worthless.

Thus the objective of the "Cure" seems to be to kill both the patient: and the attending doctor!

Yet, you still bang the drum for this utter idiocy to enjoy a continuum?

Are you as insane as the EU proponents?

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