Legonomics: there's money in them bricks

Your childhood was more expensive than you remember.

Tyler Cowen links to an interesting post looking at the economics of Lego. The bulk of the post is a hefty, data-filled look at how Lego is actually much the same price as it always has been:

The general trend seems to be that at least in the last couple decades, LEGO has not gotten any more expensive. Let’s next look a little closer into the price of a brick since 1990.

Figure 5 The price per piece of LEGO since 1990 – Adjusted for inflation

Average Real Price Per Piece 1990-2012

From what our data shows, it seems that the notion that LEGO is increasing in price is false at least in regards to the last couple decades. Since around 2006, the average price of a piece of LEGO has remained relatively stable between 10 and 13 cents apiece.

But the best part is the short discussion at the bottom of the post about the secondary market for Lego:

On the website BrickLink you can find almost any set that LEGO has ever produced. In addition, the site keeps records of trends in the market and value of individual pieces. This site is invaluable to a LEGO collector and has given many the ability to grow their collections. Before the advent of this site and sites like eBay, collecting LEGO required going to garage sales. There are now whole sites dedicated to buying LEGO as an investment, but that is a topic for another article.

If someone is going to do a data analysis of the lego market, this is the one I'd like to see. I'd be particularly interested to find out if there are any arbitrage opportunities left in the Lego world. While the prices of individual second-hand bricks vary wildly, the prices of complete sets are relatively stable, being set by Lego rather than the aggregation of thousands of Lego collectors. That means that it may be possible to buy up sets of Lego, break them up, and sell them for a profit on BrickLink. But, of course, the minute anyone realises that, the value of the pieces will plummet due to oversupply…

Photograph: Getty Images

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

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Theresa May: No “half-in, half-out” Brexit

The Prime Minister is to call her vision an equal partnership. Critics call it a hard Brexit. 

The Prime Minister is to signal Britain is heading for a hard Brexit after declaring she will not seek "anything that leaves us half-in, half-out".

In a major speech, Theresa May is expected to demand an "equal partnership" with the EU on a model unlike any other in existence.

She is to say: “We seek a new and equal partnership – between an independent, self-governing, Global Britain and our friends and allies in the EU.

"Not partial membership of the European Union, associate membership of the European Union, or anything that leaves us half-in, half-out. We do not seek to adopt a model already enjoyed by other countries. We do not seek to hold on to bits of membership as we leave. 

"The United Kingdom is leaving the European Union. My job is to get the right deal for Britain as we do.” 

Advocates of soft Brexit had hoped that the UK might be able to negotiate a deal in which it maintained access to the single market in return for payment, and therefore offer businesses continuity.

Whether or not such a deal can take place depends on whether the UK and the EU find a trade off between controls on freedom of movement and access to the single market. 

But May is to hint that the first may be more important, saying that British voters chose to leave the EU "with their eyes open: accepting the road ahead will be uncertain at times". 

At the same time, the PM will attempt to play down the rift with Europe, and stress shared values instead.

Addressing Europe, she is expected to say: "The decision to leave the EU represents no desire to become more distant to you, our friends and neighbours."

Critics are already accusing May of prioritising immigration over the economy and security. 

Liberal Democrat Leader Tim Farron said: “You can call this Brexit clean, red, white and blue, or whatever you want.

"But this doesn’t disguise the fact that it will be a destructive, hard Brexit and the consequences will be felt by millions of people through higher prices, greater instability and rising fuel costs."

Julia Rampen is the editor of The Staggers, The New Statesman's online rolling politics blog. She was previously deputy editor at Mirror Money Online and has worked as a financial journalist for several trade magazines.