Chance of triple-dip falls on strong UK manufacturing

Eurozone contraction continues.

Markit economics has released PMIs for manufacturing across Europe, offering a snapshot of the state of the sector. It remains in ill-health, but the general picture is of a bottoming-out — it may still be shrinking, but the rate of decline is slowing.

(Standard explanation: PMIs, purchasing managers indices, are based on interviews with purchasing managers in various sectors. They aim to determine the level of activity in those sectors, and present them on a scale where 50 is equal to no change in activity, over 50 means increasing activity, and under 50 means decreasing activity. The indexes are not official measures of activity, but are generally extremely accurate predictors)

Spain enters its 21st straight month with a PMI under 50, but it is steadily rising; the reduction in new orders is slowest since June 2011. It's not good news — it's not even a turning point — but it's less bad news than there has been for a while.


Spanish manufacturing index

A similar story is evident in Italy; again, the manufacturing PMI hit a ten-month high [47.8 up from 46.7], but continued to imply contraction in the sector. While the fall in new orders tapered off, though, the pace of job cuts increased, though Markit reports that, anecdotally, the main reason seems to be non-replacement of voluntary leavers. That's about as good as contraction gets.


Italian manufacturing index

France is the darkest spot in the releases. The index fell to 42.9, indicating rapid contraction, and has been below 50 since the summer of 2011. New orders fell even faster — the sharpest rate since the great recession four years ago — and Markit's Jack Kennedy notes that it "suggests further steep falls in output are likely".


French manufacturing index

Conversly — and demonstrating again the split fortunes that we discussed last year — data for the UK demonstrates mild expansion. A PMI of 50.8, down from 51.2, is not ideal in what is still supposed the rapid upswing as we come out of a recession, but it does hint at continued strength in the sector. More importantly, it calms fears that we may be heading for a triple dip recession.

The rise in domestic manufacturing comes mainly from the continued strength of the consumer goods sector — and is partially offset by a contraction in investment goods. While in the short term the economy doesn't "care" which of those spending is focused on, if manufacturing of investment goods continues to shrink, as it has for the last six months barring a brief spike over the winter, then the hangover will be painful when that lack of investment bites.


UK manufacturing index

George Osborne inspects some manufacturing. More of it is happening now than before. Photograph: Getty Images

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

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A swimming pool and a bleeding toe put my medical competency in doubt

Doctors are used to contending with Google. Sometimes the search engine wins. 

The brutal heatwave affecting southern Europe this summer has become known among locals as “Lucifer”. Having just returned from Italy, I fully understand the nickname. An early excursion caused the beginnings of sunstroke, so we abandoned plans to explore the cultural heritage of the Amalfi region and strayed no further than five metres from the hotel pool for the rest of the week.

The children were delighted, particularly my 12-year-old stepdaughter, Gracie, who proceeded to spend hours at a time playing in the water. Towelling herself after one long session, she noticed something odd.

“What’s happened there?” she asked, holding her foot aloft in front of my face.

I inspected the proffered appendage: on the underside of her big toe was an oblong area of glistening red flesh that looked like a chunk of raw steak.

“Did you injure it?”

She shook her head. “It doesn’t hurt at all.”

I shrugged and said she must have grazed it. She wasn’t convinced, pointing out that she would remember if she had done that. She has great faith in plasters, though, and once it was dressed she forgot all about it. I dismissed it, too, assuming it was one of those things.

By the end of the next day, the pulp on the underside of all of her toes looked the same. As the doctor in the family, I felt under some pressure to come up with an explanation. I made up something about burns from the hot paving slabs around the pool. Gracie didn’t say as much, but her look suggested a dawning scepticism over my claims to hold a medical degree.

The next day, Gracie and her new-found holiday playmate, Eve, abruptly terminated a marathon piggy-in-the-middle session in the pool with Eve’s dad. “Our feet are bleeding,” they announced, somewhat incredulously. Sure enough, bright-red blood was flowing, apparently painlessly, from the bottoms of their big toes.

Doctors are used to contending with Google. Often, what patients discover on the internet causes them undue alarm, and our role is to provide context and reassurance. But not infrequently, people come across information that outstrips our knowledge. On my return from our room with fresh supplies of plasters, my wife looked up from her sun lounger with an air of quiet amusement.

“It’s called ‘pool toe’,” she said, handing me her iPhone. The page she had tracked down described the girls’ situation exactly: friction burns, most commonly seen in children, caused by repetitive hopping about on the abrasive floors of swimming pools. Doctors practising in hot countries must see it all the time. I doubt it presents often to British GPs.

I remained puzzled about the lack of pain. The injuries looked bad, but neither Gracie nor Eve was particularly bothered. Here the internet drew a blank, but I suspect it has to do with the “pruning” of our skin that we’re all familiar with after a soak in the bath. This only occurs over the pulps of our fingers and toes. It was once thought to be caused by water diffusing into skin cells, making them swell, but the truth is far more fascinating.

The wrinkling is an active process, triggered by immersion, in which the blood supply to the pulp regions is switched off, causing the skin there to shrink and pucker. This creates the biological equivalent of tyre treads on our fingers and toes and markedly improves our grip – of great evolutionary advantage when grasping slippery fish in a river, or if trying to maintain balance on slick wet rocks.

The flip side of this is much greater friction, leading to abrasion of the skin through repeated micro-trauma. And the lack of blood flow causes nerves to shut down, depriving us of the pain that would otherwise alert us to the ongoing tissue damage. An adaptation that helped our ancestors hunt in rivers proves considerably less use on a modern summer holiday.

I may not have seen much of the local heritage, but the trip to Italy taught me something new all the same. 

This article first appeared in the 17 August 2017 issue of the New Statesman, Trump goes nuclear