TfL takes over services to Hertfordshire

The franchise model is slowly dying in London.

The Department for Transport yesterday confirmed that TfL is going to be allowed to take over most of the services currently run by the privatised Greater Anglia franchise out of Liverpool Street to north east London and Hertfordshire, but prevented the organisation from achieving its wider goal of taking over rail services in southeast London.

Under the settlement, TfL will take over the maintenance of 23 of the 25 stations on the portions of the line it will be operating. Trains running between Liverpool Street and Chingford, Cheshunt and Enfield Town via Hackney Downs will now be operated under concession from TfL, almost certainly under the same model as the London Overground and Crossrail. The public company will also manage all the stations except Liverpool Street and Cheshunt, which will both remain in the hands of Network Rail.

The new routes will most likely be incorporated into the Overground network, which would leave the tube map looking something like this:

(click to embiggen)

It's a big step for TfL, because it represents the first time a former Network Rail franchise has been taken over without a clear end goal in mind. London Overground exists because of a long-standing plan to create a London orbital railway; the Silverlink Metro franchise was taken over in its entirety, and then linked together with a few branches taken from other operators to make the orbital Overground as it is today.

The Greater Anglia franchise, on the other hand, is being handed over for the simpler reason that TfL has proved it could do it better. The fact that the DfT didn't also hand over Southeastern shows it's not quite prepared to start heading down the road which ends with TfL in charge of all metro rail in London; but if TfL continues to run transport services better than the private franchisees it's competing with, it will get harder to knock them back.

The Overground is run by two nationalised firms—but they're Germany's and Hong Kong's. Find out why Crossrail's going down the same track.

Alex Hern is a technology reporter for the Guardian. He was formerly staff writer at the New Statesman. You should follow Alex on Twitter.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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