Sterling set to strengthen

A string of stronger than expected data.

The sterling seems set to strengthen. At least against the Euro. That is the message that macro-economic fundamentals are giving us right now: robust Retail Sales figures, higher than expected core inflation, and rapidly reviving housing markets, the latest in a string of stronger than expected data.

There now seems little prospect that the new Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney, will preside over any more quantitative easing or cuts in base rates after he takes the helm in July. Indeed the sterling interest rate futures markets have already started to anticipate rises in rates, with the first 0.5 per cent hike now expected as early as the end of next year.

Short-term interest rates can be an important determinant of exchange rates; especially when the differential between the two rates involved changes rapidly, and one finds it hard to envisage a rise in Euro rates any time soon. Indeed, we are lead to believe that debate continues to rage within the European Central Bank as to whether they should take their deposit rate into negative territory.

I personally do not expect that to happen, principally because of the "locomotive effect" from an American recovery which is gathering pace by the day. The UK also stands to benefit from this effect, but much more so given the absence of the idiosyncratic challenges which face the Eurozone, in the shape of extreme imbalances between regions, ongoing steroidal austerity and the ever present threat of violent social unrest this summer as tragic levels of unemployment drive voters onto the streets.

The UK’s flexible labour market also places us in a much better position to expand. The foreign exchange markets have a knack of moving very rapidly to discount these sorts of changes in prospect for both the economy and interest rates.

If this move in sterling went too far, however, the new Governor may start protesting. He may well see the tightening in monetary conditions that this would imply, as too much, too early for a still nascent recover. However, the foreign exchange markets can move a long way, and very quickly, before he settles into his seat next month.

Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney. Photograph: Getty Images

Chairman of  Saxo Capital Markets Board

An Honours Graduate from Oxford University, Nick Beecroft has over 30 years of international trading experience within the financial industry, including senior Global Markets roles at Standard Chartered Bank, Deutsche Bank and Citibank. Nick was a member of the Bank of England's Foreign Exchange Joint Standing Committee.

More of his work can be found here.

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Exclusive: Labour MEPs call for Jeremy Corbyn to resign as leader

Letter demands Corbyn's departure and attacks his office for "promoting" the work of the Leave campaign. 

Labour's MEPs have called for Jeremy Corbyn to resign in the latest challenge to his leadership. In a letter sent to Corbyn and leaked to the New Statesman, Glenis Willmott, the chair of the European Parliamentary Labour Party (EPLP), wrote: "We find it hard to see how any Labour leader can continue in that role if they do not have the support of their MPs." Corbyn yesterday lost a no confidence vote among the Parliamentary Labour Party by 176 to 40. The letter also attacked the leader's office for an "official Labour briefing document" which "promoted the work of Kate Hoey and Gisela Stuart for the Leave campaign."

The demand for Corbyn's resignation is described by sources as the "majority position" of Labour's 20 MEPs. Their stance could prove crucial if the leader is not automatically included in any new contest (a matter of legal dispute) and is required to seek 50 nominations from MP/MEPs (20 per cent of the total). 

The letter reads: 

"The European Parliamentary Labour Party met today for its first meeting since the referendum and concluded that we should send you this letter today.

"The EPLP has always striven to have a loyal and constructive relationship with our party leader, and we have worked hard to cooperate with you over recent months. However, we have very serious concerns in the light of Labour's defeat in the referendum campaign.

"Responsiblity for the UK leaving the EU lies with David Cameron. That being said, we were simply astounded that on Friday morning, as news of the result sank in, an official Labour briefing document promoted the work of Kate Hoey and Gisela Stuart for the Leave campaign.

"Labour's loyal and dedicated teams of activists had just spent weeks on the doorstep and on street-stalls making the case to remain in the EU and countering leave campaign arguments. Yet you and your office authorised a briefing that put the whole Labour campaign on a par with two Labour politicians who had been appearing for weeks alongside right-wing politicians, such as Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson.

"Separate from the referendum issue, it has become clear in recent days that you do not have the confidence of the Parliamentary Labour Party. We find it hard to see how many Labour leader can continue in that role if they do not have the support of their MPs.

"So it it with a heavy heart that we urge you, for the sake of the Labour Party and for the people in our country who need a Labour government, to reconsider your position as Labour leader."

Yours sincerely,

Glenis Wilmott MEP

On behalf of the European Parliamentary Labour Party 

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.