Markets are going round Cape Horn

What will happen now that QE is starting to taper?

Having had good passage through the warm gulf stream waters of "quantitative easing" ("QE" to you and me) flowing strongly from the shores of the US and latterly Japan, markets have now reached what, in market confidence terms, may be regarded the investor’s equivalent to the nautical experience of going round Cape Horn. We are passing into the rough seas where the conflicting currents of one ocean system, meet those of another. That is to say - translated into impenetrable dry as dust market speak – where the expected "tapering by the US authorities of Quantitative Easing" meets US economies recovery, putting hitherto bullish equity market sentiment to the test. Will the equity bull market of recent times be wrecked by the withdrawal of cheap money? Can you have a continuing bull market fueled by near no cost credit when interest rates start to rise?

We knew that we had moved into these choppy seas this week when the yield on US 10 Year Treasury bonds went through the previous 2 per cent "resistance level" to close at 2.23 per cent. The ship’s timbers may have creaked a little but the SS Equity Markets sailed on the next day, blown by news of the gathering pace of US economic recovery in housing, employment and consumer confidence, only to be blown off course the following day by the shore winds of analysts’ concerns, as they publicly pondered what it meant? Suddenly, the thing that markets hate most - uncertainty - had arrived.

My own view is that equity markets needed what I call a "linear regression down swing" in prices to remain faithful to its longer term trend. In short markets look a bit overbought in a year  when investors decided it was unwise to "sell and go away in May" because they did not want to be out of the market, and short of stock, when something as big and important as the continued stirrings of the long awaited US economic recovery were being witnessed. Consequently, the market was flooded with bearish conjectures as investment banks’ scrambled to take profits on bull positions and at the same time, get back some stock for their market makers, who must have been "short" after a long bull run that continued un-seasonally into May.

I retain my early, long running bullishness of equities, because the US Federal Reserve will tread carefully in managing a return to normalizing its interest rate. I reasonably conclude that it will tailor sales of the bonds it acquired, to fit the balance sheets of non banking providers of finance and credit with enough leg room with the right kind of bond collateral at the right yields, to facilitate the working of short term cash markets. Generally, most big companies balance sheets are in good shape to withstand higher interest rates. As Franklin Roosevelt once reassuringly said, the only thing to fear is fear itself.

Ben Bernanke. Photograph: Getty Images

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Harmful gender stereotypes in ads have real impact – so we're challenging them

The ASA must make sure future generations don't recoil at our commercials.

July’s been quite the month for gender in the news. From Jodie Whittaker’s casting in Doctor Who, to trains “so simple even women can drive them”, to how much the Beeb pays its female talent, gender issues have dominated. 

You might think it was an appropriate time for the Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) to launch our own contribution to the debate, Depictions, Perceptions and Harm: a report on gender stereotypes in advertising, the result of more than a year’s careful scrutiny of the evidence base.

Our report makes the case that, while most ads (and the businesses behind them) are getting it right when it comes to avoiding damaging gender stereotypes, the evidence suggests that some could do with reigning it in a little. Specifically, it argues that some ads can contribute to real world harms in the way they portray gender roles and characteristics.

We’re not talking here about ads that show a woman doing the cleaning or a man the DIY. It would be most odd if advertisers couldn’t depict a woman doing the family shop or a man mowing the lawn. Ads cannot be divorced from reality.

What we’re talking about is ads that go significantly further by, for example, suggesting through their content and context that it’s a mum’s sole duty to tidy up after her family, who’ve just trashed the house. Or that an activity or career is inappropriate for a girl because it’s the preserve of men. Or that boys are not “proper” boys if they’re not strong and stoical. Or that men are hopeless at simple parental or household tasks because they’re, well...men.

Advertising is only a small contributor to gender stereotyping, but a contributor it is. And there’s ever greater recognition of the harms that can result from gender stereotyping. Put simply, gender stereotypes can lead us to have a narrower sense of ourselves – how we can behave, who we can be, the opportunities we can take, the decisions we can make. And they can lead other people to have a narrower sense of us too. 

That can affect individuals, whatever their gender. It can affect the economy: we have a shortage of engineers in this country, in part, says the UK’s National Academy of Engineering, because many women don’t see it as a career for them. And it can affect our society as a whole.

Many businesses get this already. A few weeks ago, UN Women and Unilever announced the global launch of Unstereotype Alliance, with some of the world’s biggest companies, including Proctor & Gamble, Mars, Diageo, Facebook and Google signing up. Advertising agencies like JWT and UM have very recently published their own research, further shining the spotlight on gender stereotyping in advertising. 

At the ASA, we see our UK work as a complement to an increasingly global response to the issue. And we’re doing it with broad support from the UK advertising industry: the Committees of Advertising Practice (CAP) – the industry bodies which author the UK Advertising Codes that we administer – have been very closely involved in our work and will now flesh out the standards we need to help advertisers stay on the right side of the line.

Needless to say, our report has attracted a fair amount of comment. And commentators have made some interesting and important arguments. Take my “ads cannot be divorced from reality” point above. Clearly we – the UK advertising regulator - must take into account the way things are, but what should we do if, for example, an ad is reflecting a part of society as it is now, but that part is not fair and equal? 

The ad might simply be mirroring the way things are, but at a time when many people in our society, including through public policy and equality laws, are trying to mould it into something different. If we reign in the more extreme examples, are we being social engineers? Or are we simply taking a small step in redressing the imbalance in a society where the drip, drip, drip of gender stereotyping over many years has, itself, been social engineering. And social engineering which, ironically, has left us with too few engineers.

Read more: Why new rules on gender stereotyping in ads benefit men, too

The report gave news outlets a chance to run plenty of well-known ads from yesteryear. Fairy Liquid, Shake 'n' Vac and some real “even a woman can open it”-type horrors from decades ago. For some, that was an opportunity to make the point that ads really were sexist back then, but everything’s fine on the gender stereotyping front today. That argument shows a real lack of imagination. 

History has not stopped. If we’re looking back at ads of 50 years ago and marvelling at how we thought they were OK back then, despite knowing they were products of their time, won’t our children and grandchildren be doing exactly the same thing in 50 years’ time? What “norms” now will seem antiquated and unpleasant in the future? We think the evidence points to some portrayals of gender roles and characteristics being precisely such norms, excused by some today on the basis that that’s just the way it is.

Our report signals that change is coming. CAP will now work on the standards so we can pin down the rules and official guidance. We don’t want to catch advertisers out, so we and CAP will work hard to provide as much advice and training as we can, so they can get their ads right in the first place. And from next year, we at the ASA will make sure those standards are followed, taking care that our regulation is balanced and wholly respectful of the public’s desire to continue to see creative ads that are relevant, entertaining and informative. 

You won’t see a sea-change in the ads that appear, but we hope to smooth some of the rougher edges. This is a small but important step in making sure modern society is better represented in ads.

Guy Parker is CEO of the ASA