Why have the young been left out of the employment rise?

A puzzle.

Some interesting symmetry in the unemployment figures today: overall unemployment dropped by 7,000 over the last quarter, but youth unemployment - the number of people out of work aged 16 to 25 - rose by exactly the same amount.

The puzzle of unemployment falling at all in a recession is often explained by the rise of part-time workers - doing the kind of "jobs" which shift them into the employed category, but provide them with little else in terms of security, predictable hours, or sufficient pay.

But if this is true, it disqualifies some of the main explainers for youth unemployment - that risk-averse employees refuse to budge from existing jobs, and that cash-strapped companies are unable to hire. If fluid shift-work with fast turn-overs and unpredicable hours is the reason for the unemployment drop, you would expect the young to be hired at an equal, if not higher level to the less time-flexible old.

It remains a mystery - and according to a report released last week by the International Labour Organisation, the the number of young people out of work will continue rising over the next five years, predicted to reach almost 13 per cent by 2017, with faltering expectations that some of them will ever make it into the job market.

More young people out of work. Photograph, Getty Images.

Martha Gill writes the weekly Irrational Animals column. You can follow her on Twitter here: @Martha_Gill.

Photo: Getty
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Who will win in Manchester Gorton?

Will Labour lose in Manchester Gorton?

The death of Gerald Kaufman will trigger a by-election in his Manchester Gorton seat, which has been Labour-held since 1935.

Coming so soon after the disappointing results in Copeland – where the seat was lost to the Tories – and Stoke – where the party lost vote share – some overly excitable commentators are talking up the possibility of an upset in the Manchester seat.

But Gorton is very different to Stoke-on-Trent and to Copeland. The Labour lead is 56 points, compared to 16.5 points in Stoke-on-Trent and 6.5 points in Copeland. (As I’ve written before and will doubtless write again, it’s much more instructive to talk about vote share rather than vote numbers in British elections. Most of the country tends to vote in the same way even if they vote at different volumes.)

That 47 per cent of the seat's residents come from a non-white background and that the Labour party holds every council seat in the constituency only adds to the party's strong position here. 

But that doesn’t mean that there is no interest to be had in the contest at all. That the seat voted heavily to remain in the European Union – around 65 per cent according to Chris Hanretty’s estimates – will provide a glimmer of hope to the Liberal Democrats that they can finish a strong second, as they did consistently from 1992 to 2010, before slumping to fifth in 2015.

How they do in second place will inform how jittery Labour MPs with smaller majorities and a history of Liberal Democrat activity are about Labour’s embrace of Brexit.

They also have a narrow chance of becoming competitive should Labour’s selection turn acrimonious. The seat has been in special measures since 2004, which means the selection will be run by the party’s national executive committee, though several local candidates are tipped to run, with Afzal Khan,  a local MEP, and Julie Reid, a local councillor, both expected to run for the vacant seats.

It’s highly unlikely but if the selection occurs in a way that irritates the local party or provokes serious local in-fighting, you can just about see how the Liberal Democrats give everyone a surprise. But it’s about as likely as the United States men landing on Mars any time soon – plausible, but far-fetched. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.