Balls heightens the pressure on Osborne to cut taxes

Labour's new line: any tax cuts are better than no tax cuts.

With the Budget now just a month away, both Labour and the Lib Dems are finalising their wish lists for George Osborne. By far the most interesting intervention in today's papers is that of Ed Balls, who uses a column in the Sunday Times to put the case for tax cuts to stimulate the economy.

You'll be familiar with Balls's call for a temporary cut in VAT and a National Insurance tax break for small firms (both part of Labour's ubiquitous five point plan for jobs) but should these demands fall on deaf ears, the shadow chancellor has a plan B. If Osborne "can't bring himself to reverse his VAT mistake", he writes, he has other options. For the same amount of money, he could "cut the basic rate of income tax by 3p for a year. Or raise the income tax personal allowance to over £10,000. Or increase tax credits for almost 6 million working people by around £2,000." With the economy on the brink of a double-dip recession and unemployment heading towards three million, Balls rightly argues that some tax cuts are better than no tax cuts:

It would be better to cut VAT now - it's fairer and quicker and would help pensioners and others who don't pay income tax. But any substantial tax cuts to help households and stimulate the economy would be better than doing nothing.

By lending his weight to the Lib Dems' key demand - an accelerated increase in the personal allowance - Labour's Keynesian rottweiler heightens the pressure on Osborne to offer some relief. From his time as shadow chancellor onwards, Osborne has always opposed what he calls "unfunded tax cuts". But many Tory MPs, sharing Arthur Laffer's belief that tax cuts are self-financing, would like him to do nothing more than reduce the burden. And with the Chancellor likely to undershoot the OBR's deficit forecast of £127bn by around £3bn, he will find it harder to argue that any giveaway would be fiscally irresponsible. The Institute for Fiscal Studies, for instance, has said that Osborne could cut taxes by £10bn without triggering a bond market revolt and a rise in interest rates.

As Tory MP David Ruffley said of a temporary VAT cut:

Even if we can't find the money for tax cuts from public spending savings, we could add it to the deficit and it is not going to send the markets into a tizzy, I don't think anyone really believes that. The markets will not go haywire if there was a modest loosening in borrowing in the short run if it was for the right reason.

The Chancellor, an inveterate political schemer, will no doubt have something up his sleeve but with Labour, the Lib Dems and his own MPs all urging him to slash taxes it had better be something special.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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The public like radical policies, but they aren't so keen on radical politicians

Around the world, support for genuinely revolutionary ideas is strong, but in the UK at least, there's less enthusiasm for the people promising them.

You’re probably a getting a little bored of the litany of talking head statistics: trust in elected officials, parliament, the justice system and even democracy itself has been falling steadily for years and is at record lows. Maybe you’ve seen that graph that shows how people born after 1980 are significantly less likely than those born in 1960 to think that living in a democracy is ‘essential’. You’ve possibly heard of the ‘Pasokification’ of the centre-left, so-named the collapse of the once dominant Greek social democratic party Pasok, a technique being aggressively pursued by other centre-left parties in Europe to great effect.    

And so, goes the logic, there is a great appetite for something different, something new. It’s true! The space into which Trump et al barged leaves plenty of room for others: Beppe Grillo in Italy, Spanish Podemos, Bernie Sanders, Jean Luc Melanchon, and many more to come.

In my new book Radicals I followed movements and ideas that in many cases make someone like Jeremy Corbyn seem positively pedestrian: people who want to dismantle the nation state entirely, use technology to live forever, go off grid. All these ideas are finding fertile ground with the frustrated, disillusioned, and idealistic. The challenges of coming down the line – forces of climate change, technological change, fiscal crunch, mass movements of people – will demand new types of political ideas. Radical, outsider thinking is back, and this does, in theory at least, offer a chink of light for Corbyn’s Labour.

Polling last week found pretty surprising levels of support for many of his ideas. A big tax on high earners, nationalising the railways, banning zero hours contracts and upping the minimum wage are all popular. Support for renewable energy is at an all-time high. According to a recent YouGov poll, Brits actually prefer socialism to capitalism, a sentiment most strongly held among younger people.

There are others ideas too, which Corbyn is probably less likely to go for. Stopping benefits entirely for people who refuse to accept an offer of employment is hugely popular, and in one recent poll over half of respondents would be happy with a total ban on all immigration for the next two years. Around half the public now consistently want marijuana legalised, a number that will surely swell as US states with licenced pot vendors start showing off their dazzling tax returns.

The BNP effect used to refer to the problem the far-right had with selling their ideas. Some of their policies were extremely popular with the public, until associated with the BNP. It seems as though the same problem is now afflicting the Labour brand. It’s not the radical ideas – there is now a genuine appetite for those who think differently – that’s the problem, it’s the person who’s tasked with delivering them, and not enough people think Corbyn can or should. The ideal politician for the UK today is quite possibly someone who is bold enough to have genuinely radical proposals and ideas, and yet appears extremely moderate, sensible and centrist in character and temperament. Perhaps some blend of Blair and Corbyn. Sounds like an oxymoron doesn’t it? But this is politics, 2017. Anything is possible.

Jamie Bartlett is the head of the Violence and Extremism Programme and the Centre for the Analysis of Social Media at Demos.

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