Salmond's question put to the test

New polling evidence shows how Salmond's loaded question increases support for Scottish independence

Alex Salmond's chosen question for the Scottish independence referendum ("Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?) is clearly a leading one. As Robert Cialdini, an American psychologist with no stake in the race, told the Today programme: "it sends people down a particular cognitive chute designed to locate agreements rather than disagreements." But would it actually make any difference to the outcome? Lord Ashcroft's latest poll attempts to answer this question. The former deputy Conservative chairman divided the sample size of 3,090 into three and asked several possible versions of the question.

Presented with Salmond's preferred wording, 41 per cent of Scots supported independence, with 59 per cent opposed. Offered a slightly modified version ("Do you agree or disagree that Scotland should be an independent country?"), the number who favour independence falls to 39 per cent and the number who oppose it rises to 61 per cent. As Ashcroft notes, this represents a "four-point difference in the margin between union and independence."

His third and final question asks "Should Scotland become an independent country, or should it remain part of the United Kingdom?" This version sees support for independence plummet to just 33 per cent and opposition increase to 67 per cent. Thus, we now have significant psephological evidence that the wording of the question could determine the outcome of the referendum.

So far, Salmond, who has conceded that the UK Electoral Commission should run the referendum, has said that the commission will have "a role in assessing the questions" but has refused to say whether it would have a veto over the final wording. However, after Ashcroft's poll he will be under even greater pressure to do so.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Cabinet audit: what does the appointment of Liam Fox as International Trade Secretary mean for policy?

The political and policy-based implications of the new Secretary of State for International Trade.

Only Nixon, it is said, could have gone to China. Only a politician with the impeccable Commie-bashing credentials of the 37th President had the political capital necessary to strike a deal with the People’s Republic of China.

Theresa May’s great hope is that only Liam Fox, the newly-installed Secretary of State for International Trade, has the Euro-bashing credentials to break the news to the Brexiteers that a deal between a post-Leave United Kingdom and China might be somewhat harder to negotiate than Vote Leave suggested.

The biggest item on the agenda: striking a deal that allows Britain to stay in the single market. Elsewhere, Fox should use his political capital with the Conservative right to wait longer to sign deals than a Remainer would have to, to avoid the United Kingdom being caught in a series of bad deals. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. He usually writes about politics.