A trillion-dollar catalyst for change in the Arab World

The Middle East's oil wealth has the potential to become the key driver for change and innovation in

At the end of the 19th Century, Lord Curzon, the then British Viceroy of India, described Iran and its Arab neighbours as "pieces on a chessboard upon which is being played out a game for the domination of the world".

Throughout history, the geostrategic importance of the Middle East, with its immense oil wealth, has shaped the policies of colonial empires, secured the longevity of autocratic regimes and given rise to religious elites. The 'game of chess', as described by Lord Curzon, promises great riches and influence for the players involved, but has often come at a huge cost for the majority of the Arab people.

Indeed, oil wealth, so narrowly shared between the region's ruling minorities, has historically presented a barrier to democracy and left a vacuum of inequality and lost opportunities in many Arab societies. It is no coincidence that the citizens of Arab countries with limited fossil fuel reserves have enjoyed greater freedom over the years than their oil-rich neighbours.

Now, however, the uprisings of the Arab Spring present a unique opportunity to use the wealth of the region to reinvest in the future prosperity and wellbeing of the Arab people. It is an opportunity which must be grasped before history repeats itself and, as with recent events in Cairo, the transition to democracy is derailed.

Fuelling progress

While the Arab world is no stranger to revolution - Egypt, 1952, Iran, 1979 - this time around the stakes are higher than ever. With oil prices climbing to above $100/barrel, the Arab Peninsula is currently generating export oil revenues of $1 trillion dollars a year. But the conventional reserves and production capacities of oil-rich Arab countries are finite and slowly depleting. This means there is a narrowing window of opportunity to leverage the region's resources for the benefit of the people.

What's more, the ease of wealth creation from oil readily attracts those whose sole interests lie in personal profit, religious agenda or geopolitical power. If such forces emerge triumphant from the Arab Spring, oil wealth will continue to line the pockets of the few, rather than meet the needs of the many.

With these scenarios in mind, the new emerging Arab leadership needs to create genuine democratic expectations as a bulwark against corruption and oligarchy. In many countries across the region, the euphoria of revolution will soon give way to the on-the-ground realities of reconstruction. Amid the many challenges and complexities of state-building, it is critical that these countries recalibrate their socio-economic systems in a way that provides enhanced economic and human prosperity.

Diversification and development

The new Arab leadership also need to focus on transforming oil-based economies into information-based economies supported by firm democratic foundations and social equity. And this can only be achieved through the reinvestment of petrodollars into manufacturing, technology and intellectual capital. The development of mass-transit systems, solar energy conversion, water desalination or passive cooling technologies, for example, will be of long-term value to Arab societies, providing new employment and export opportunities in a warming world.

By harnessing the region's potential for alternative energy from sunlight, and by enhancing their non-oil based productive capacity, countries will be able to project themselves onto a path of sustainable and inclusive economic development. The decentralisation of oil wealth will also break up governments' ownership of petrodollar wealth and lead to improved transparency, good governance and trust among the Arab people.

Levelling the playing field

The Middle East's oil wealth, then, has the potential to become the key driver for change and innovation in Arab countries. To ensure a more sustainable model for the future, states' natural resource wealth should be saved for export, and foreign oil companies should only be awarded oil contracts once they partake in third-party monitored bidding rounds.

But other issues also need to be addressed to enable long-term wealth creation in the region - not least the record number of 75 million illiterate adults, the fatal mismatch within the labour market and, most importantly, the gender inequality in both education and employment. At present, 50 per cent of the talent base is excluded from society and the workplace, and the Middle East's long-term growth strategy must address all parts of an inclusive wealth-creation framework. Such a strategy should be based on a home-grown path for change, and provide inclusive and broadly shared development gains. One trillion dollars a year could serve as sufficient investment to achieve these goals.

In Egypt, we've already seen how easily interim leaders can renege on their promises. Without doubt, new governments with old mindsets will undermine all progress made so far in the Arab Spring. For this reason, the calls for democracy, transparency and accountability currently sweeping the region need to be answered with genuine commitment. If they are not, the sacrifices and achievements of the younger Arab generation will be squandered. Leaders must also take a long-term approach to the management of oil wealth to ensure the region can meet the challenges of food and water shortages, rising population levels and global warming.

The Arab Spring presents an opportunity not only to reset the pieces on the chessboard, but to level the playing field entirely. The new Arab leadership needs to show strength and vision to take this opportunity in the months ahead.

Tara Shirvani and Sir David King
Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford

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The struggles of Huma Abedin

On the behind-the-scenes story of Hillary Clinton’s closest aide.

In a dreary campaign, it was a moment that shone: Hillary Clinton, on the road to the caucus in Iowa, stopping at a Mexican fast-food restaurant to eat and somehow passing unrecognised. Americans of all political persuasions gleefully speculated over what her order – a chicken burrito bowl with guacamole – revealed about her frame of mind, while supporters gloated that the grainy security-camera footage seemed to show Clinton with her wallet out, paying for her own lunch. Here was not the former first lady, senator and secretary of state, known to people all over the world. This was someone’s unassuming grandmother, getting some food with her colleagues.

It might be unheard of for Clinton to go unrecognised but, for the woman next to her at the till, blending into the background is part of the job. Huma Abedin, often referred to as Clinton’s “shadow” by the US media, is now the vice-chair of her presidential campaign. She was Clinton’s deputy chief of staff at the state department and has been a personal aide since the late 1990s.

Abedin first met Clinton in 1996 when she was 19 and an intern at the White House, assigned to the first lady’s office. She was born in Michigan in 1976 to an Indian father and a Pakistani mother. When Abedin was two, they moved from the US to Saudi Arabia. She returned when she was 18 to study at George Washington University in Washington, DC. Her father was an Islamic scholar who specialised in interfaith reconciliation – he died when she was 17 – and her mother is a professor of sociology.

While the role of “political body woman” may once have been a kind of modern maid, there to provide a close physical presence and to juggle the luggage and logistics, this is no longer the case. During almost 20 years at Clinton’s side, Abedin has advised her boss on everything from how to set up a fax machine – “Just pick up the phone and hang it up. And leave it hung up” – to policy on the Middle East. When thousands of Clinton’s emails were made public (because she had used a private, rather than a government, server for official communication), we glimpsed just how close they are. In an email from 2009, Clinton tells her aide: “Just knock on the door to the bedroom if it’s closed.”

Abedin shares something else with Clinton, outside of their professional ties. They are both political wives who have weathered their husbands’ scandals. In what felt like a Lewinsky affair for the digital age, in 2011, Abedin’s congressman husband, Anthony Weiner, resigned from office after it emerged that he had shared pictures of his genitals with strangers on social media. A second similar scandal then destroyed his attempt to be elected mayor of New York in 2013. In an ironic twist, it was Bill Clinton who officiated at Abedin’s and Weiner’s wedding in 2010. At the time, Hillary is reported to have said: “I have one daughter. But if I had a second daughter, it would [be] Huma.” Like her boss, Abedin stood by her husband and now Weiner is a house husband, caring for their four-year-old son, Jordan, while his wife is on the road.

Ellie Foreman-Peck

A documentary filmed during Weiner’s abortive mayoral campaign has just been released in the US. Weiner shows Abedin at her husband’s side, curtailing his more chaotic tendencies, always flawless with her red lipstick in place. Speaking to the New York Observer in 2007, three years before their marriage, Weiner said of his future wife: “This notion that Senator Clinton is a cool customer – I mean, I don’t dispute it, but the coolest customer in that whole operation is Huma . . . In fact, I think there’s some dispute as to whether Huma’s actually human.” In the film, watching her preternatural calm under extraordinary pressure, you can see what he means.

In recent months, Abedin’s role has changed. She is still to be found at Clinton’s side – as the burrito photo showed – but she is gradually taking a more visible role in the organisation overall, as they pivot away from the primaries to focus on the national race. She meets with potential donors and endorsers on Clinton’s behalf and sets strategy. When a running mate is chosen, you can be sure that Abedin will have had her say on who it is. There’s a grim symmetry to the way politics looks in the US now: on one side, the Republican candidate Donald Trump is calling for a ban on Muslims entering the country; on the other, the presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton relies ever more on her long-time Muslim-American staffer.

Years before Trump, notable Republicans were trying to make unpleasant capital out of Abedin’s background. In 2012, Tea Party supporters alleged that she was linked to the Muslim Brotherhood and its attempt to gain access “to top Obama officials”. In her rare interviews, Abedin has spoken of how hurtful these baseless statements were to her family – her mother still lives in Saudi Arabia. Later, the senator and former Republican presidential candidate John McCain spoke up for her, saying that Abedin represented “what is best about America”.

Whether senior figures in his party would do the same now remains to be seen.

Caroline Crampton is web editor of the New Statesman.

This article first appeared in the 26 May 2016 issue of the New Statesman, The Brexit odd squad