No 10 "underwhelmed" by Boris's campaign

Downing Street concerned that the London mayor's re-election campaign lacks direction.

For months, the conventional wisdom was that the London mayoral race is already called for the Tories. But the polls tell a different story. Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson are neck and neck, in what is shaping up to be London's closest mayoral contest since devolved government was reintroduced in the capital.

Boris may have regained the lead, but YouGov puts only two points between them, and according to reports today, Tory top command is starting to worry.

Alice Thompson writes in the Times (£):

Downing Street is worried. When the mayor came in with his Australian election strategist Lynton Crosby last week, they thought their plans were "underwhelming" and lacked a simple "retail offer" for voters. Boris might irritate the Prime Minister but the Conservatives need him to stay in City Hall. They are even prepared to consider Boris Island, his plan for a new airport, if it helps his cause.

The fundamental problem appears to be that his campaign lacks direction. According to Thompson's report, internal Tory polling shows that voters can't see what Boris has done. Ken has a clear "retail offer": cutting fares and bashing bankers. Boris's campaign, meanwhile, lacks direction, while his association with the City continues to be a problem.

He has always been a politician who relies on personality. Last month my colleague Rafael Behr argued that Boris's incumbency might be hurting this trump card:

Last time around, Boris was the challenger, which suited his self-image as a bit of a maverick, an eccentric, a TV personality and so, crucially, not a typical Tory. Some of that image remains, but the mantle of office has necessarily imposed a degree of discipline on the mayor. He still gets away with more mannered dishevelment than is usual for someone in his position, but there is an extent to which his pre-election persona has been absorbed into a more conventional political identity. Or, to put it in cruder terms, he is becoming more Tory than Boris.

Thompson quotes an aide saying that "Boris needs a fright" and that a close race will be good for him. Which way the vote goes on 3 May depends on many factors, not least voter turnout, but there is certainly a lot at more at stake than the cartoon rivalry between two big personalities. A win for Ken -- widely seen as past his political prime -- would be a serious mid-term shock for the Tories. It is no surprise that Downing Street is rearing into action.

Samira Shackle is a freelance journalist, who tweets @samirashackle. She was formerly a staff writer for the New Statesman.

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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