The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Can Labour ever win without Scotland?

History suggests that it would be difficult but not impossible for Labour to win.

By George Eaton Published 12 January 2012 14:18

As I noted earlier this week, the Scottish independence referendum is win-win for the Conservatives. If Scotland votes No, the Union is saved, if Scotland votes Yes, the Tories win a huge advantage over Labour. While Ed Miliband's party would be stripped of 41 MPs, David Cameron's would lose just one. This has prompted some to suggest that an independent Scotland would leave the Tories with an inbuilt "permanent majority".

But how true is this? Without Scotland, Labour would still have won in 1997 (with a majority of 139, down from 179), in 2001 (129, down from 167) and in 2005 (43, down from 66). What those who say that Labour cannot win without Scotland are really saying is that they do not believe Labour can ever win a sizeable majority again. This may or may not be true but it's a different debate. History suggests that England and Wales alone are capable of electing a Labour government when the conditions are right.

What is true is that so long as British politics remains "hung", Labour cannot afford for Scotland to go it alone. Were it not for Miliband's Scottish MPs, the Tories would have won a majority of 21 at the last election. The loss of Scotland, coupled with the coalition's boundary changes (which will deprive Labour of 28 seats, the Tories of 7 and the Lib Dems of 11), would stack the odds against a Labour majority.

Should Scotland win independence, one likely consequence is that Labour will shift to the right in an attempt to win greater support from English voters, who are generally perceived to lie to the right of their Scottish counterparts (although psephology paints a more complex picture). Thus, those who want Labour to win again and to do so on a social democratic programme have every interest in preserving the Union.

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Tags: Scottish independence Labour Scotland

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31 comments

Sun, 2012-01-15 14:18 — Steve O (not verified)

Who cares. One thing is sure though - Scotland will be fine without Labour or the Tories.

Thu, 2012-01-12 14:25 — David Wearing (not verified)

I'd prefer for the electoral odds in Westminster not to be stacked in the Tories' favour, obviously. I'm just not sure how I can ask Scotland to pay the price for that. Independence rules out Tory rule in Scotland almost permanently. I couldn't begin to blame them for wanting that.

Thu, 2012-01-12 14:43 — Indu Pendent (not verified)

The system balances itself out - if the Tories had a permanent majority people would vote against them just for that reason. Its why the UK is two party state which flip flops between governments.

However, Scotland is strongly left wing. Losing Scotland would lurch the UK to the right. Labour will also have to move right to capture votes.

One way or another New/ Old Labour has reached the end of the road - a yes to independence means Labour will turn into the old Liberal party ans start be economically responsible. A No to independence means the SNP will eat the Labour votes keep them out of power in westminister.

Labour needs to start doing double back flip triple salcos to regain the lost Scots support ... urgently ... otherwise the party is finished.

150 years will see Labour come and go.

Thu, 2012-01-12 14:54 — Freeman2

'Should Scotland win independence, one likely consequence is that Labour will shift to the right in an attempt to win greater support from English voters...'

What, even further right than 'New' Labour? Impossible, surely. Did the last government do anything that could be described as 'left'? And don't say 'minimum wage' because the left-wing US has had one for years.

Thu, 2012-01-12 14:54 — Mizar (not verified)

The Tories haven't won an election since 1992.

Thu, 2012-01-12 14:56 — Freeman2

David Wearing wrote, 'Independence rules out Tory rule in Scotland almost permanently.'

What would be the breakdown then> SNP, Scottish Labour and Scottish Lib Dems? You don't think a 'Conservative' party would naturally emerge? The small-minded and the wealthy have to vote for someone, don't they?

Thu, 2012-01-12 15:00 — Benjamin Rae (not verified)

If the past 30 years has taught us anything about Labour it is that they are flexible with principles. George Eaton is right in that Scotland secedes then any Labour victory will be to the right again.
Labour at present are not a social democratic party so any further rightward shift makes them pretty much like American democrats. For those with a progressive take on politics from England I do understand why they do no want to see Scottish independence.
Scotland in general is not very left wing though it's shift to the right was not as pronounced as some in England

Thu, 2012-01-12 15:02 — Fergus Pickering (not verified)

The SNP is a right wing party.

Thu, 2012-01-12 15:24 — Trevor (not verified)

With the Tories perpetually in power, and Labour swinging even further to the right in order to secure southern votes, how long before the Welsh (almost as left- leaning as the Scots) decide they've also had enough of the Union and decide they want out, too?

If such a scenario ever materialises, living on Tyneside, I'll be advocating UDI for North East England - or a merger with newly independent Scotland (if they'll have us).

If all else fails I'll decamp across the border informing the relevant authorities of my (albeit dim and distant) Scottish ancestry, and hope they grant me political asylum.

Thu, 2012-01-12 15:54 — E Hart (not verified)

Of course, incompetence is no bar to government and with Labour so akin to the Tories there is every likelihood that this would be the case.

Thu, 2012-01-12 16:17 — Benjamin Rae (not verified)

Trevor,
I'm sure it would be a case of the more the merrier. Not sure how pleased though the English establishment would be to give up parts of England to an independent Scotland.

Thu, 2012-01-12 16:17 — A. Cole (not verified)

George

Furthermore....

1. Individual voter registration will discriminate against potential Labour voters.
2. The constituency boundaries are being redrawn.
3. Labour party funding will be reduced by capped union donations.

Meaning that it will be very difficult for Labour to secure a majority at Westminster.

HAPPY DAYS!!

Thu, 2012-01-12 17:31 — michael (not verified)

To start with, it would be tough for the Labour lot.'cept the stats are completely misleading, misrepresenting human nature. Politicians who think that they are invincible tend to be blind to corruption, sleaze, and maladministration.
Sooner or later it catches up.

Thu, 2012-01-12 17:53 — Tesco Shelf Stacker (not verified)

So if the UK was to break up Labour may never get back into power - where's the problem? What difference would it make? I mean really, whatever the rhetoric - the new nobility - the ruling classes at westminster implement much the same policies for much the same reasons. Ok so maybe there is a ideological tweak here and there to keep the lifelong voters happy - but basically they all broadly have the same ill-informed policies. There is no real big difference that distinguishes them all from one another ideologically. Casting ones vote these days is a bit like deciding whether to shop at Tesco or Asda - basically there is very little difference between them. So I say good luck to the scots - hope they get their independence and in the process they get a healthy democracy back - I fear that ours died long ago.

Thu, 2012-01-12 17:54 — Mrs,M L Bonwick-Jones (not verified)

All is fair in Love and War!!!
Anything is possible including the lovely Edward Miliband becoming Prime minister,he does not need Scotland, the memory of Tony Blair, or un-fair constituancy size or even the ability to murder his brother's political career to win. Ed Miliband believes in his abilities so i hope Labour Voters prehaps can give the man a break! remember David Cameron and his hug a hoddie and huskies, and Bambie Blair. Ed Said Labour did such a good job last time and left the economy in such a good order so why should we the electorate not wish them to do the same thing again , I'm sure that Scottish Labour will do a brilliant job convincing the Scottish people so the question will never need to be thought about, just remember to send Alastair Darling.

Thu, 2012-01-19 09:49 — francis (not verified)

The problem with Labour is not about being left wing or right wing, but being anti-English. This is why we English don't want Labour. We don't want anglophobes running our country. What is worse is that Labour are sucking up to the ethnics in return for votes. How an English Parliament, that would be a start.

Thu, 2012-01-12 17:54 — Tesco Shelf Stacker (not verified)

Come to think of it - perhaps the UK breaking up is just what is needed to inject some fresh ideological blood into westminster - a representative democracy once more with creative ideological thinking from people of all walks of life and not just from the narrow-minded political class we have now - then maybe - just maybe, our democracy will be something worth defending again.

Thu, 2012-01-12 18:00 — Derek Emery (not verified)

It occurred to me that Labour's chances of gaining power are reduced by an independent Scotland. In addition the inherent Euroscepticism of the English public will no longer be masked if Scotland leaves. I suspect the UK inevitably will distant itself more from the EU over the next decade as The EU moves relentlessly to full integration ruled by unelected bureaucrats. This will be hard to stomach even for our EU infatuated UK politicians and a total anathema to the English public. Independence will mean a new agreement for the reduced population UK with the EU and that UK will be more conservative and more Eurosceptic.

Thu, 2012-01-12 18:18 — Benjamin Rae (not verified)

Ooh you are awful. But I like you!

Thu, 2012-01-12 18:23 — Mrs,M L Bonwick-Jones (not verified)

@ Derek Emery
I think i agree with you, Europe will over the next decade become less powerful along with the rest of the west. so prehaps it will be a good idea to forge new friendships with other countries what do you suppose us being given Panda bears from china was about!
I also agree the UK just like the rest of Europe will become more conservative. David miliband has been giving very interesting lectures across europe on why countries are turning their back's on The Labour Party, Ed Miliband is correct Labour needs to change.

Thu, 2012-01-12 18:42 — Ricardo1

Matthew Sweeney is spot on, and how foolish Labour now look to oppose AV and hinder the fight for democratic reform (officially the party was neutral but most Labourites seemed opposed to me, partly because they arrogantly assume Labour will soon get a majority again and partly because they now hate Lib Dems more than they hate Tories)

But at the same time, I share Shelf Stacker's optimism. Hopefully this will now give Labour the kick up the arse they need to make them realise that democratic reform isn't an irelevent fetish but actually has real consequences, i.e. makes it harder for Tories to get in and, should we English ever find ourselves on our own, stopping perpetual Tory rule.

In England in 2010, the Tory-Labour-LD-Other vote percentages were 39.6%-28.1%-24.2%-8.1%, while the seat percentages were 55.9%-35.8%-8.1%-0.2%. Tories would now have a clear majority if the celts didn't save us.

So I don't believe for a second that England is a rightist nation, and I think it's time to put the British Empire in the bin and begin life again as four distinct post-imperial nations. But in order to do that Labour need to appreciate the need for change.

Thu, 2012-01-12 19:49 — Arthur Williamson (not verified)

The SNP have got their priorities all wrong.

The state of the European and Global economy will have a massive impact on Scotland`s economy. Scotland becoming independent will not make a difference to this situation.

Rather than squabbling with Cameron over the date of the referendum, Alex Salmond and his team should be taking more interest in the forthcoming European and global economic summits.

Thu, 2012-01-12 22:15 — Luddite (not verified)

NO!!

Fri, 2012-01-13 22:32 — Rabyrover (not verified)

Going back some years, Conservatives not Labour would have won the GEs of 1964 and 1974(Feb)without Scotland. Harold Wilson would have disappeared from History.