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Exclusive poll: Scotland close to backing independence

New Statesman/ICD poll shows that 44 per cent support independence, with 45 per cent opposed.

"'Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?" That's the question that Alex Salmond intends to put to Scottish voters in autumn 2014. But how many are on the First Minister's side?

An exclusive New Statesman/ICD poll has some encouraging news for the SNP leader. Asked if Scotland should become an independent country, 45 per cent of Scottish voters say no and 44 per cent say yes, a higher level of support for independence than previously indicated by polls.

In total, 38 per cent of British voters say that Scotland should secede from the UK, with 34 per cent opposed. Just 20 per cent of UK voters believe that Scotland would be better off if it became independent, compared with 52 per cent who believe it would be worse off. Conversely, 36 per cent of UK voters believe that England would benefit if Scotland left the UK, compared with 34 per cent who believe it would suffer.

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The survey also confirrms that a majority of voters support full fiscal autonomy or "devolution max" for Scotland, an option that Salmond has insisted should be included on the ballot paper. Asked if Scotland should be given full control over its tax and spending, 51 per cent say yes and just 32 per cent say no, with 17 per cent undecided.

Voters are divided on whether the Scottish government or the UK government should determine the wording and timing of the referendum. Forty one per cent of UK voters say that Westminster should, while 34 per cent say that Holyrood should. However, encouragingly for Salmond, an overwhelming majority of Scottish voters (72 per cent) say that his government should have control over the referendum.

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The survey also found strong support for an English parliament. Asked if they support the establishment of a separate body with similar powers to those currently held by the Scottish parliament, 45 per cent of English voters say yes, with 20 per cent opposed and 35 per cent undecided.

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This exclusive poll for the New Statesman was carried out by ICD Research, powered by ID Factor, from 21-22 January 2012 and is based on a sample of 1,000 UK responses, of which 85 were Scottish.

58 comments

kenelm's picture

Independence - bring it on.

John Ruddy's picture

Great, a poll by an organisation who is not a member of the british Polling Council, dont publish their methodology and dont have a breakdown of weightings etc.

Come back when you've got something better than this Voodoo poll.

Bill Bradbury's picture

A split will be a disaster for Scotland and will create more problems for the rest of the Union-not the UK anymore! Vote yes at your peril.
However if they want to go-beggar off and good riddance to their constant references to Bannockburn and no devo max which means the Scots will still want their hand in our back pocket. If it's independence you want it has to be total.
So it will be job losses at Faslane- locate it to Merseyside or Barrow, lots of employment for the English or even a Welsh port.
NHS, welfare state, BBC licence fee, Sky, cable pay for it yourselves.
Re-locate all the Scots army to north of the border and pay for it yourselves if you need one or a Navy or Air Force.
You can set up your own currency and be free to decide Europe "in or out". Best of all no Scottish MP's voting on English decisions.
Alex Salmon strutting about the World as a statesman.
And all for what. A "share" if any, of oil revenue which will run out in a few years. Then you will be on your own. Still with passport controls along Hadrian's Wall (he had the right idea) you can charge the English to see a return to the crofting system, if the rest have not departed to other countries yet another emptying of the Highlands. And finally the bagpipe can be regarded as an unfriendly instrument South of the border. Peace at last. Goodbye!

Martin's picture

You may carp about ICD (and with some justification given lack of link to detailed breakdown), but at least they know
a) a sound sample size when they see it
b) not to describe a statistical tie as being definitively in favour of one side or the other.

Recent polls by the likes of YouGov have used sample sizes of a couple of hundred and included all the 'don't knows' in their commentary as being against.

Benjamin Rae's picture

Fandabidozi. Quite why some feel the need to throw insults over this is beyond me. Won't return the insults and engage in silly bitterness.

Colin's picture

RBS is a UK bank.
Branches, Employees, Shareholders,etc in both Scotland and England (actually more in England).

Through the "boom" years where it paid the highest business tax of any UK company - that tax went to the UK exchequer - not directly to Edinburgh.

So why, now, should it be viewed as anything other than a UK bank?

The bailout was a Westminster decision. The costs of the bailout are UK costs.

Scotland will take a proportional share of UK debt, and assets.

Not that complicated a concept is it?

Or do you think that by having the word Scotland in the historic company name makes it exclusively Scottish?

Awww - cute!!

Do you perhaps think McDonald's is Scottish too?

Benjamin Rae's picture

Your saying unnecessary negative things. Scotland isn't stopping you having devo max for your part of the country. Your elected representatives are.
Support for independence is continually growing and will highly likely be larger after another 2 years of Tory government. Support for independence is nothing to do with dislike for English people and more to do with a serious dislike for Tories and right wing policies

Alan's picture

Well said Benjamin. Great that Salmond isn't bitter like Ian. The bitterness seems to flow one way in this debate - ranging from the childish 'good luck, you'll need it' to the 'get lost sweaty socks'. Such banality is boring and, frankly, immature. Glad to see that an adult agenda is being maintained by the SNP and Salmond and that they aren't reducing themselves to the utter crap flowing from the likes of Douglas Alexander and Jeremy Paxman.

Luddite's picture

Can't wait; there's no greater cheer leader for Scottish independence than the English. The very thought of never again having to suffer another Scottish dominated Labour party. No more electoral-fraud; no more mass-immigration; no more squandering billions on the work-shy; no more pampering to Islam; no more economic-mismanagement, but best of all; not getting blamed for all Scottish woes.

John Ruddy's picture

Alan,
No, Salmond isnt bitter - he's too much of a canny political operator to show any bitterness. Thats more than can be said for many of his supporters, though.

David Whalley's picture

Assuming that readers of The Staggers are politically savvy, I am surprised that no one has raised the issue of what happens to Northern Ireland (especially) and Wales if Scotland leaves the Union? It is not impossible that in the longer run, Scotland + Ireland + Northern Ireland + Wales will be associated in a new arrangement and England will be left on its ownio.

Benjamin Rae's picture

Luddite,
nobodies blaming English people as a whole. Politicians who have not had Scotland's interests at heart are the people getting blamed.
Scottish people know perfectly well that your average English person has had nothing to do with Scotland being poorly governed.

Alan's picture

John,

I have to say that as a a member of the Cybernat 'twitterati', most of the people i follow aren't bitter, but committed to following the party line of positive argumentation for the Independence cause. Of course, i'm not naive to think there aren't those who harbour anti-English sentiment. But amongst my pro-indy friends in (and outside) the party this does not exist, nor does any bitterness. It is a simple case of wishing to govern for ourselves, and our own interests. Particularly at a time when it appears that those clash so distinctly with the diktats that are coming out of Westminster (i.e. NHS & Welfare).

Bile and nonsense such as that from Ian on this thread are something that i am seeing with, sadly, increasing regularity. I don't think it serves anyone very well at all. Worst of all, much of it seems to surface from people who ought to know better. Scare stories and woeful propoganda such as the recent 'Spain to veto' Scotland and Scotland having to promote whisky itself swing from the embarrassingly naive to outright lies.

Anyway, rant over. If our countries are to go their seperate ways then i live in hope that it is after some considered debate. Although i am a supporter of our independence i'd hate it if it were on the back of such childish nonsense as what i have witnessed from the big three thus far. We all deserve that.

Alan's picture

Ian,

Your last remark is a far cry from your first post. And for that, i am glad. Keep it up. It's more like it.

Mike C's picture

A democratic rererendum would only accepty a two-thirds majority to support independence.

Alan's picture

Jimbo,

I encourage you to write to your MP. The more people put pressure on the Westminster politicians, the stronger our case for Independence. And the same for Ian. If we all pull together then we can have self-determination. And better that we work together in this, common, cause.

All help is welcome, whatever side of the border you are from.

Cha togar m' fhearg gun dìoladh.

John Ruddy's picture

Doug,
I'm not bitter - and how is it bitter calling into question a poll of 1000 adults ACROSS THE UK which claims to tell us about OPINION IN SCOTLAND.

How many times have I heard the SNP say the same things about such polls when they say something they dont agree with?

There is much bitterness amongst some supporters - to give you a few examples. These are all things said by nationalists online in the last few days..

Anyone who doesnt want independance should leave Scotland now.

No one who has lived in Scotland for less than 15 years should get a vote

At last I can get my country back.

We can kick out the colonising b***** english.

etc
etc

Now, I am happy to condemn the vile and abusive things some people have said - the Daily Mail tendancy, if you like. But you have to accept that there is also much bitterness on the nationalist side too.

Like I said, Salmond is too canny to say anything like this himself. If anything like these things ever got said by senior SNP politicians, it would probably end any hope of independance.

Indu Pendent's picture

We need to decide what share of British Oil and British debt Scotland will get.

Based on population they would get about 10% of the oil or £200bn worth.

But of the debt, alot of it is tied up the scottish banks. Say there share is £200bn of the national debt.

So we could accept a break up and keep the oil by Scotland paying the UK £2Tn to the UK (£1.8Tn for the oil and £200Bn to settle the debt).

Its about £80k per England and Wales family.

BRING IT ON!!!!!

Now lets see how many Scotts want it.

Fraziel1's picture

We will get to keep all our oil money and we will never again be governed by toff public school multi millionaire tory wankers. That's got to be a good thing. It amuses me that the English want rid of us as they think we are a drain yet London with a population of almost twice that of scotland receives more cash per head, as does Northern ireland!Maybe you should jettison London instead! Bunch of "begging subsidy junkies" that londoners are!

Fraziel1's picture

Indu Pendent, please use your brain, if you have one.We will get all the oil and gas that is deemed to be in Scottish waters,which is considerably more than 10%! What sort of an idiot thinks it will be based on population? What is to be decided is how we determine what is Scottish waters and i cant tell you how as it will involve some rather complex mathematical calculations apparently involving tangents and normals.

francis's picture

I see a Poll showing 45% support an English Parliament 20% against. So an English Parliament is popular. When will Cameron take note? Never.

stevem1's picture

Reading the poisonous comments from the verminous Right here it is little wonder Scots want out . Even as a boy I knew the Scots had a better education system than that in England.Inumerate,illiterate people like Luddite are a disgrace to English schools. An independent ,social democratic Scotland can be a beacon for skilled individuals living in Northern counties. I suspect there will be a mass migration when the Scots are free.

RolftheGanger's picture

"Britishness" is becoming as dead a political concept as: "Austro-Hungarian-ness"
Two dis-similar countries, artificially and temporarily united, primarily for reasons of dynastic succession initially, then by the vested interests of the power elite.
I was born Scots, will die Scots and have never identified at any time as 'British' The Union was useful. Note the past tense.

RabtheCairnTerrier's picture

Peter
26 January 2012 at 06:26
"... if the Scots choose independence and things go badly wrong, who will they blame?"

I suppose they'll pretty much blame themselves. Of course, they could instead copy their southern neighbours and blame the EEC (France and Germany in particular).

Stuart Eels's picture

stevem

Enough of this nonsense I pointed out earlier the reasoned comments coming from north of the border to Alan, who tried to make the accusations as you. I got no reply, strange that! Luddite always uses colourful language but always makes valid points.

If you are so sure of yourself get out there campaigning not posting childish remarks on here.

super huey's picture

I guess when it comes down to the nitty gritty of splitting everything, Alex will crap his pants at the scale and consquencies of it all. Let them vote YES and then we will see how brutal the debates will be. I reckon England will be the ones to benefit out of all this and Alex will wriggle his way out of this mess like a slimey eel he is.

Will Podmore's picture

“I don’t want to be Prime Minister of England, I want to be Prime Minister of the whole United Kingdom,” says David Cameron. And Ed Miliband told the Commons: “This is a momentous decision which our children and grandchildren will have to live with if we get it wrong.” Unfortunately, he didn’t have any analysis to explain quite what ‘wrong’ would be or for whom.
At the same time, hoping to appeal to romanticised myth and obscure real history, Alex Salmond wants to hold the referendum in 2014, the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn. But the battle was fought between two feudal overlords, sole possessors of the land. Scotland no more belonged to the people who lived there than did England to the English.
The Act of Union in 1706 merged the parliament of Scotland with that of England and Wales, and Britain became officially one nation. A rapidly growing capitalist economy throughout Britain destroyed feudalism.
Britain developed in the heat of the industrial revolution with all its national elements coming together in large-scale manufacture and the growth of major towns across England, Scotland and Wales. It didn’t matter which particular area mined the coal firing the furnaces, which were located throughout the nation.
A referendum on Scotland breaking away from Britain poses a crucial question for the whole British people. Our greater strength lies in unity. All must have a vote on the future of Britain, not just Scotland, with a simple yes/no question. On this, Cameron got it right.
A ‘yes’ vote in a referendum would mean subservience for Scotland. Let Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Italy serve as examples, subsumed by the European state. Do Scots really want the euro?
The British people must not allow itself to be split along false ‘national’ lines. We are a nation – a British nation – who share the same problems and are tied together in common interests. Salmond has been pumped up – by himself, his party and the press. He does not want a referendum because he is afraid his rhetoric will be exposed for what it is. He requires deflating.
Britain needs to re-discover a positive sense of itself, of its actual history as a united people. We must turn to the real problem: our future as a nation and how to rebuild Britain.

Stuart Eels's picture

Alan

You stated in yout comment of the 25th 18.29 that the bitterness seems to be flowing one way.

Please take note of the saddos-Scott Kerr 25th 18.29, Stephen Gibbs 25th 19.03, Hunter 1996 25th 20.45 and the ever reiable Fraziel 1 25th 23.10 and 23.15.

That seems to be where all the bitterness is flowing from to me and I'm an Englishman who actually supports Scottish Independence as do most of my fellow English!

Stuart Eels's picture

Will Podmore

"We must turn to the real problem: our future as a nation and how to rebuild it." Why?

In your last sentence you admit theres a problem. It's that New Labour thought it could control Scotland and Wales better by giving them devolution and it's backfired on them. You can't put the genie back in the bottle. Now at last England has woken up as well. Lets have an end to this dis-united Kingdom.

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