The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Why the boundary changes won't devastate Labour

Labour will still win more seats than the Tories on an equal share of the vote.

By George Eaton Published 12 January 2012 18:42

David Cameron and Alex Salmond's duel over Scottish independence has overshadowed another issue of constitutional significance: the coalition's boundary changes. The publication of the Boundary Commission for Wales's proposals means we now have recommendations from all four UK commissions, allowing us to calculate the likely effect on each party.

It's often said that the boundary changes will lead to the longest period of Conservative government since Thatcher but the reality is more complex. The key point is that even after the boundary changes Labour will still win more seats than the Tories on an equivalent share of the vote. This is because the electoral bias towards Labour owes more to differential turnout (fewer people tend to vote in Labour constituencies) and regional factors (the Tory vote is poorly distributed) than it does to unequal constituencies (the coalition plans to fix constituency sizes at around 76,000 voters).

As a recent report by the University of Plymouth concluded:

The geography of each party's support base is much more important, so changes in the redistribution procedure are unlikely to have a substantial impact and remove the significant disadvantage currently suffered by the Conservative Party.

(Although the Tories, wedded as they are to first-past-the-post, can hardly complain.)

Thus, as YouGov's Anthony Wells shows, while the Tories need a lead of 7.4 per cent to win a majority under the new boundaries, Labour needs a lead of just 4.3 per cent. In addition, should the Tory lead fall below 2.2 per cent, Labour will emerge as the largest single party in a hung parliament.

There will now be a lengthy consultation on the boundary changes until October 2013 when the commission makes its final recommendations to parliament.

Below are the key figures in full.

Labour majority

To win a majority, Labour needs a lead of 4.3 per cent, compared to 3 per cent under the old boundaries.

Labour largest single party

To win the most seats in a hung parliament, Labour requires a Conservative lead below 2.2 per cent, compared to 4 per cent under the current system.

Conservatives largest single party

The Tories need a lead above 2.2 per cent, compared to 4 per cent under the old boundaries.

Conservative majority

The Tories require a lead above 7.4 per cent, compared to 11 per cent under the current system.

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Tags: Labour

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30 comments

Sat, 2012-01-14 09:08 — Fergus Pickering (not verified)

Whenever I read Tory scum I know I am in the presence of lefty infantalism and can ignore whatever comes directly before or after. Repeat after me, politician are not scum, even Mr Prescott. Those who work in banks are not scum. Those who were educated in private schools are not scum. All the people who are richer than you are not scum. Gypsies are not... No, one must draw the line somewhere.

Fri, 2012-01-13 10:15 — John P Reid (not verified)

It would be An awkward circumstance, If labour got less votes than the tories and won, because what laobur would od if they won, wold need a huge public support which they don't have AS most liberal voters are backing hte tories for their second choice

Fri, 2012-01-13 10:16 — Indu Pendent (not verified)

A decay of the Labour Project and what do you get?
- A massive debt
- A massive structural deficit
- A depleted UK industry run down over 10 years
- dissolutionment over politics
- and now Scots have had enough of corrupt grubby expenses parliment and want a divorce

Basically, its not safe to let Labour be government because they wreck everything.

But have Labour been uncannily savvy? When the Scots realise how much debt they are going to take, that they will only get a minority of the £1Tn remaining oil and they they will have to pay there own share of the deficit they might not be so keen.

Also, the Euro zone is looking to get rid of Greece or bail it out. Is England going to bail out the Scots who cant keep control of their public sector spending? So Scotland with independent fiscal policy will need to have its own currency. It will adopt the Euro and therefore give up independence to Brussells.

England could come out of this better by using the Scots to pay for Labours debts.

Fri, 2012-01-13 10:52 — matthew fox (not verified)

Inastew, why are you ignoring the bad trade deficit data.

Exports down, Imports up, come on inastew.

Another stupid argument, the Eurozone countries want Greece out?

I think Inastew is a alluding to the report from Fitch ratings, who have said, on record, Greece should leave the eurozone.

Why do i have to keep correcting these juvenile errors?

PS Inastew, can you point Brusells on the map?

Fri, 2012-01-13 10:54 — matthew fox (not verified)

Ps that should be Brussells, sorry I am getting as bad as Inastew.

Fri, 2012-01-13 11:32 — Ivan White (not verified)

"Basically, its not safe to let Labour be government because they wreck everything"

You can repeat your Tory lies as often as you want, but they'll still be lies. No doubt you'd like us to believe that if the Tories had been in power and matched Labour's spending pound for pound - as they promised to do (not that they keep any promises) - then there would have been no deficit and no global financial crisis.

Labour has a fine record, and it was achieved without taking money away from cancer patients and disabled children:-
- Uninterrupted economic growth from 1997 to 2008
- Longest period of sustained low inflation since the 1960s
- Home ownership up by more than a million
- Minimum wage introduced and increased
- Minimum Income Guarantee for working families
- Nearly 3 million more people in work
- ‘New Deal’ for young unemployed
- Entitlement to 28 days paid leave annually
- Trebled spending on NHS
- 85,000 more nurses and 32,000 more doctors
- Brought back matrons to hospital wards
- Free breast cancer screening for all women aged between 50-70
- Set up NHS Direct offering free convenient patient advice
- More than doubled spending on education
- Over 36,000 more teachers in England and 274,000 more support staff and teaching assistants.
- Nursery school entitlement for all three and four year olds
- Free fruit for most four to six year-olds at school
- Child benefit increased by 26% in real terms since 1997
- Set up Child Trust Funds
- Brought over 1 million social homes up to standard
- Minimum Income Guarantee for pensioners
- Winter fuel payments to OAPs
- Free prescriptions and eye tests for everyone over the age of 60
- Free TV licences for over 75s
- Free bus passes for pensioners
- Reduced VAT on gas and electricity from 8% to 5%
- Cut standard rate of income tax from 23p in 1997 to 20p (lowest since the 1930s)
- Free admission to museums and galleries
- 14,000 more police
- Brokered peace in Northern Ireland
- Banned smoking in public places
- Cleanest rivers, beaches, drinking water and air since before the industrial revolution
- Banned driving when using a mobile phone
- Abolished foxhunting
- Banned fur farming and the testing of cosmetics on animals
- Introduced civil partnerships
- Restored city-wide government to London
- Cleared most hereditary peers out of House of Lords.

http://cuttingedge2.forumotion.co.uk/t234p60-is-britain-s-class-system-a...

Fri, 2012-01-13 12:04 — someguy24 (not verified)

DIfferential voting explained; picture the scenes....

Inner City Salfard:
"Mother, it's election day. Are we gonna go 'n' vote?"
"Nay, son. It's raining, Eastenders is on and Labour'll get in anyway..."

Kensington and Chelsea
"Mater, it's election day- shall we go and vote?"
"Absolutely, we must keep out those dratted Bolsheviks! Jeeves, carry me to the polling booth."

Fri, 2012-01-13 14:28 — Fraziel1

Has a graph been done to show what labour would need to win without Scotland?

Fri, 2012-01-13 14:39 — Matt Thompson (not verified)

Ivan White let me remind you of a few things -

- Uninterrupted economic growth from 1997 to 2008 - Based on unsustainable debt and service industries.

- Home ownership up by more than a million - based on unsustainable debt and look at house prices now.

- Nearly 3 million more people in work - how many people entered the country over that time?

- Child benefit increased by 26% in real terms since 1997 - So the benfits trap is a good thing huh?

- 85,000 more nurses and 32,000 more doctors - that quantity over quality

- Cut standard rate of income tax from 23p in 1997 to 20p (lowest since the 1930s) - Stealth taxes?

- Longest period of sustained low inflation since the 1960s - What is it now?

- Cleanest rivers, beaches, drinking water and air since before the industrial revolution - our manufacturing shrank more under New Labour than even the thatcher years.

- More than doubled spending on education - yes and look what we are churning out year after year now - unemployable idiots.

- Over 36,000 more teachers in England and 274,000 more support staff and teaching assistants. - quite frankly a large number of them are pretty much useless. The legacy speaks for itself. Our young people are unemployable compared to the hundreds of thousands of people New Labour let into our country. Now we have a lost generation - regardless of the financial crisis all because of New Labours wet dream.

We were borrowing money we didnt have DURING THE BOOM YEARS. So everything you mentioned we did by borrowing, so put that in your pipe and smoke it.

Sun, 2012-01-15 18:55 — Freeman2

Luddite writes, 'Stop kidding yourselves, if you lose Scotland you'll keep losing.'

It always amuses me how seriously you take it. I sometimes think you believe there is any difference between the three capitalist parties.

Sat, 2012-01-14 16:05 — Ivan White (not verified)

This current government is full of scum. Scum who take benefits away from cancer patients and make them attend ATOS fitness-to-work tests when they're receiving chemotherapy. Scum who take benefits away from severely disabled people, even children. Scum who lie to the electorate that they won't touch the NHS and then set about dismantling it and rewarding their party donors in the process. Scum who promise to keep Sure Start centres open and then close them. Scum who have "no plans to increase VAT" then raise it to 20% within two months of crawling into power. Propped up by other scum who make personal pledges to abolish student tuition fees and then treble them.

We have the nastiest, most vicious, most ideologically-driven government in my lifetime. I don't use the word lightly, but Cameron and his vile government are scum.

Thu, 2012-01-12 19:29 — priggy

I would agree with this. I think you also miss the point of geographic distribution. Yes, there's a larger turnout in Conservative seats but they also tend to get bigger majorities. If there were larger turnouts but the majority was still in the hundreds or a few thousand then there wouldn't be much bias. Its the fact that the Conservative vote is highly concentrated in places, so they get huge majorities which add to their vote share but not to the number of seats. A lot of the Conservative vote is wasted because of these majorities and would do far better in seats where they are close enough behind Labour to overturn the majority.
FPTP favours the party which has small majorities in the most constituencies and at the moment that party is Labour. So under new boundaries, Labour or any other party only needs to win by 1 vote in 301 constituencies. All votes above that 1 vote above the next guy are superfluous.
What I find interesting or worrying if your Labour, is that Labour, the party of the working class supposedly, who want to make things better for the poor and the middle classes can't even inspire people to turn out and vote. Shouldn't Labour in these inner city constituencies be getting as good a turnout and as big majorities in these constituencies, their "heartlands" as the Tories do in their "heartlands"?

Thu, 2012-01-12 20:00 — A. Cole (not verified)

Yes the boundary changes alone wont cripple Labour....

But with 1. Scottish independence. 2. Capped union donations and 3. individual voter registration Labour will be screwed!!

Thu, 2012-01-12 20:03 — Indu Pendent (not verified)

Increasingly key is the Labour vote in Scotland. The SNP probably already holds the balance of power. Since everyone is uniting against the SNP, does the boundary changes chop their vote?

Also, with the collapse of support for the Liberals where are these votes going? They are mostly based down south so more of them will go to the Tories.

Thu, 2012-01-12 20:25 — Mizar (not verified)

As the economy does down the pan, there is little chance that the Tories will win again.

Thu, 2012-01-12 20:27 — Luddite (not verified)

Stop kidding yourselves, if you lose Scotland you'll keep losing.

Thu, 2012-01-12 21:08 — Tesco Shelf Stacker (not verified)

I believe that Scottish independence would also encourage voters in the West Country to vote for the Cornish Nationalists - in an attempt to get Cornwall its very own parliament too - that could also see the last of the LibDems! All of this is evidence of growing public dispair with Westminster and its inaccessible ruling political class.

Thu, 2012-01-12 21:39 — Dickie1

It'll be great when the Tories are in forever and ever. I can settle down on the dole and make a matchstick model of the Turpitz.

Thu, 2012-01-12 22:00 — Ivan White (not verified)

"Also, with the collapse of support for the Liberals where are these votes going? They are mostly based down south so more of them will go to the Tories."

No. sir, just the opposite. Many of those who voted Lib Dem in the Tory strongholds of the south were voting tactically against the Tories.

"As the economy goes down the pan, there is little chance that the Tories will win again."

Absolutely. Can anyone seriously imagine that any of those voters who didn't support the Tories in 2010 will be tempted to do so next time, in view of all the job losses, broken promises, Cameron's pathological lies and the creeping destruction of the NHS?

http://cuttingedge2.forumotion.co.uk/t19-gerrymandering

Thu, 2012-01-12 22:07 — earlydawn

@IvanWhite: No, they just won't bother to turn out (especially when combined with a revised form of voter registration.) Which will make the next election even more of an unrepresentative farce.

Thu, 2012-01-12 22:13 — Luddite (not verified)

Tesco Shelf Stacker, Ivan White. What are you two chuntering about? If Labour can't win in Scotland how the hell are they going to win in England?

Thu, 2012-01-12 22:20 — Matt Thompson (not verified)

'The boundary changes won't devastate Labour' - true, all they need is the legacy of Tony Blair and the Mr Bean-like status of Millepede to do the job.

Thu, 2012-01-12 22:23 — Tesco Shelf Stacker (not verified)

Hey! if the Burgundians of Pimlico can declare themselves a foreign territory due to their historical links to Burgandy France ... lol ;-)

Maybe there's hope for Milton keynes yet! lol

Passport to Pimlico - great film.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kErQAo5qlds

Thu, 2012-01-12 22:24 — matthew fox (not verified)

Cloddite is brilliant at getting rid of boundaries, especially ones that relate to taste and bad language.

With sweet sweet private sector jobs being shed hand over fist, I get the feeling Cameron won't be able to carry the unemployed vote.

http://www.foodmanufacture.co.uk/Manufacturing/Warburtons-73-job-cuts-ha...

http://www.information-age.com/channels/management-and-skills/news/16845...

Fri, 2012-01-13 22:53 — Ivan White (not verified)

“Everything you mentioned we did by borrowing, so put that in your pipe and smoke it.”

Mr Thompson. Sorry to disappoint you, but I’ve never smoked a pipe, cigar or cigarette in my life, so you can shove that childish quip – and the rest of your lies - somewhere that the sun doesn’t shine.

The UK economy grew substantially under Labour, and was starting to grow again in early 2010, but then the economically illiterate Osborne took over the economy and we have flatlined ever since. It was Thatcher who made the UK heavily dependent on financial services and told us all “don't worry if you don’t make anything, just make money”.

In 1997, Labour inherited a debt equivalent to 43.76% of GDP. Gordon Brown reduced that figure below 40% and kept it there until we were overwhelmed by the global financial crisis. In the meantime, schools and hospitals – previously neglected by the Tories, who we know hate any form of public provision – flourished.

By comparison, this crap Tory government is borrowing more than it anticipated, and for what? Because Osborne and Cameron like to pretend that you can make an economy grow by shrinking it, which is just their excuse for following an ideological crusade to abolish welfare, privatise the NHS, destroy the state education system and demonise the disabled and cancer sufferers. How sick the Tories are, and how sick you must be to defend them.

You’re too far gone but other contributors may appreciate this excellent article by Owen Jones on the brainwashing which has been taking place in this country. Goebbels would have been proud of Cameron and the rest of his scum:-
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jan/13/david-cameron-cynica...