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McCluskey ignores the deficit that Osborne will leave

Nowhere does the Unite general secretary acknowledge the £79bn deficit that Labour would inherit.

"Union chief attacks Labour leader" is rarely a headline worthy of much attention but then Len McCluskey is not any trade union leader. As general secretary of Unite he leads the country's biggest trade union and Labour's biggest donor, responsible for a quarter of all donations to the party. And, lest we forget, had it not been for McCluskey's union, among others, David Miliband, not Ed, would now be wearing the crown.

But the younger Miliband has little to thank McCluskey for this morning. His article in today's Guardian is a full-frontal attack on the Labour leader and Ed Balls for their "embrace of austerity" and the government's public sector pay squeeze. Anti-cuts protesters, he writes, have been left "disenfranchised" by a Blairite "policy coup" that threatens Miliband's leadership.

To which Balls and Miliband should reply, we have changed our mind because the facts have changed. The failure of George Osborne's plan means that, based on Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts, the next government will inherit a deficit of £79bn. As growth continues to fall below target, this figure will continue to soar upwards. Yet nowhere in his piece does McCluskey acknowledge this new fiscal reality. Ball's statement that the "starting point" for Labour (note the wriggle room) is "we're going to have to keep all these cuts" is simply an acknowledgement that the country has a lot less money than it thought. Labour cannot credibly pledge not only to avoid further cuts if elected in 2015 (Osborne would stretch his into 2017) but to reverse those that have already been made.

Contrary to what McCluskey writes, the shadow chancellor has not embraced "deficit reduction through spending cuts". He continues to oppose both the speed and the scale of the coalition's cuts, warning that they mean a reduced level of growth, higher unemployment and, consequently, a higher deficit. Osborne is now set to borrow more than Alistair Darling would have. But we cannot rerun the 2010 general election. The Chancellor plainly has no intention of changing course and the country will suffer for it. Balls's intervention was, to coin a phrase, an attempt to look forward, not back. Whether this will benefit Labour politically is an open question. At a time when some forecasters say the country is already in recession, the party's shift of emphasis risks appearing irrelevant at best and eccentric at worst. Labour's new position (cuts are harming the economy, so we won't be able to reverse them) cannot easily be sold on the doorstep. Moreover, McCluskey is right to assail Balls for buying "into the hoary old fallacy that increasing the wages of the low-paid risks unemployment." Keynes's rottweiler has endorsed a pay policy that will further squeeze demand out of the economy.

Balls's wager is that while Labour may lose short-term popularity it will win long-term credibility. His model appears to be the 1997 spending freeze (devised by the man himself) that reassured nagging doubts about "spendthrift" Labour. We will never know how the party would have fared had it simply played the "too far, too fast" tune. McCluskey's fears, then, are not ungrounded. But until he shows some awareness of the dramatically altered economic reality, he will not be an honest participant in this debate.

25 comments

Michael Fitchett's picture

John B, you are exactly right! Ed Balls simply cannot promise to spend money in 2015 when he does not know what the public finances will look like kn 2015. William Hague made that mistake in 2001, and look what happened to him in 2001.

writeon1's picture

What does this word - "credibility" really cover? Credibility with who exactly? Who decides what's a "credible" economic strategy to get the UK out of a depression?

It would seem that it isn't so much the electorate one has to appear "credible" to, but another far smaller, but far more powerful slice of the population, the financial sector, both at home and abroad. They seem to have something like a veto over economic policy.

What if they are wrong? What if what's "good" for the financial sector is "bad" for the rest of society? What if the interests of the City clash with those of the rest of the UK? Or is that an impossibility according to the economic dogma of the last thirty years?

I just don't get it. How can my brother, who works in the City, and regulary takes home million-plus bonuses, basically for successfully "gambling", have the same interests as some poor sod flippin' burgers in some greasy cafe?

What irks me is the lack of honesty in the UK about the dreadfully counter-productive economic policies that have been followed for the last few decades, compared, for example, to Germany. Germany which doesn't have North Sea oil, but which has far smaller and less powerful financial sector, didn't have a mirage economy based on a property bubble, and still has a world-beating and strong manufacturing base.

Now there's lot wrong with the German version of state-capitalism, but at least they are competent capitalists, not weighed down by primative economic dogma from the eighteenth century like the UK's leadersship. Compared to Germany the UK's ruling elite is a kind of grotesque parody of how to run a successful capitalism.

Imagine if the revenues from the North Sea had been used wisely for targetted investment, instead of being wasted on a decades long party for the wealthy, while more and more people sank into poverty, first the traditional working-class, and now it's the turn of the middle-class to follow the miners in history. And yet the government is seen as... credible?

Mrs,M L Bonwick-Jones's picture

i Agree.

writeon1's picture

I think one is giving these politicians more credit than they are due regarding strategic thinking.

Since when do politicians have to tell the truth or do what they promised once they are elected? For example, the present government.

Why couldn't Labour promise the moon and then when they get into power and examine the books, change their minds and policies?

And why is it that only Labour has to appear credible, when the government's policies are so transparently... "incredible" in the sense of being absurd? As in unworkable and counter-productive.

Awake!'s picture

write-on
'Why couldn't Labour promise the moon and then when they get into power and examine the books, change their minds and policies? '

er, cos if after 5 years of austerity and global GDP crashes, u'd look pretty dumb if u came into power and then said-"we've had a look at the books and it's not good..."

Awake!'s picture

but i agree, politicians are so poor at the moment it's hardly credible...

writeon1's picture

What still puzzles me, (though the answer is probably staring me in the face, perhaps I'm chosing not to recognise it?) is how can the government's economic strategy, which has been proven not to work over and over again, in relation to slumps and how get our of them, how can a spectacularly bad set of policies, be labled... credible? And, it gets worse, if one indicates that one is sceptical about a successful outcome based on cutting wages and investment, this, automatically is called not credible.

Voicing the opinion that there might possibly be an alternative to massive cuts that undermine demand, is characterised as "left-wing", and mentioning the disaterous road we're on in public is called "populist" and "unrealistic."

Is this because the rich and powerful still, and increasingly, run society and politics? Look at Cameron, Osborne, and Clegg... for example. They, and people even more fabulously wealthy, have the power to define what is "credible" "realistic" and what isn't. Because they benefit and are core participants in what we call "The Market" which really means the concentration of wealth and power in society in a handful of people's hands, in a system which structurally disenfranchises the majority of the population, and robs them of not just wealth, but power to.

Even today there's been a transfer of society's wealth upwards, the baillout of the financial sector, which has arguably no historical parallel, and that's really saying something after the last thirty years of class-warfare and looting of the collective wealth of the country.

Lox's picture

On the contrary, E Hart. The economic recovery in the 30s predated rearmament, and it was driven by laissez faire policy. In the UK, anyway: Roosevelt's policies prolonged the US slump.

E Hart's picture

Labour's position is folly. When Coalition's economic fantasy is over Labour will be seen - as if not a supporter - then an appeaser for it. Why do that when you know the incumbents will be totally discredited at the end of this parliament?

None of the parties is credible. If Miliband had a any sense at all he'd work on undermining the government's gift to the nation - "expansionary austerity" - which is going to fail everywhere - and get on with drawing up some serious infrastructure projects countrywide which Labour could lay down on election (?) to get unemployment down and the economy moving again. Anything else is more fantasy.

In all likelihood Miliband will inherit a Britain not unlike the depression-hit one of the '30s which was rescued not by private sector-inspired investment but state-demand in the form of armament. The private sector likes a home banker. In early 1939, after an injection of funds from the Treasury (£250m) - unemployment fell by 500,000 in a matter of months.

This country needs some serious infrastructure projects (not just in London) which will prepare it for the future and get us out of this depressive and dumb cycle.

The laissez faire options on offer - which commit us to waiting for the dust to settle (i.e. we stop falling) - are so destructive and lengthy they are laughable.

Awake!'s picture

' *IMF SAYS POTENTIAL NEEDS ARE $1 TRILLION FOR `THE COMING YEARS'

representingthemambo's picture

There are some interesting points in teh article but I'm still inclined to agree with McCluskey.

My difficulty is with people who present Balls' volte-face as not a volte-face. It is. He has performed a massive u-turn on his previous (correct position). I'm sorry but saying he won't reverse the cuts is in practical terms the same as accepting them. I'm sure even the Tories will say that they don't want to make them.

Short term electoral expediency isn't a valid reason to let down the people who look to the Labour Party to defend their interests.

More from the Mambo here:

http://representingthemambo.wordpress.com/2012/01/15/so-what-did-ed-ball...

Simple Simon's picture

Balls and Milliband are starving the left to feed the centre and right – just as Obama has done in Washington. This is expedient just as long as there is nowhere for left-leaning voters like myself to go. What they have missed is that there is an extra-parliamentary alternative in process of forming – as exemplified by 38 degrees, UK uncut and other groups. Maybe the trade unions and the left should conclude – not before time, that all NuLabour is going to do is take their money and votes – and spit in our faces. When the Liberals moved right at the end of the 1880s, Labour was formed to supersede it. What happened once can happen again.

TM's picture

If Balls thinks the deficit is an increasing problem, fair enough. But that doesn't mean he should endorse the current cuts programme, which is undeniably ideological. Where is his plan for alternative cuts that don't heap the burden onto the disabled, old and poor? Why does a need to reduce the deficit mean community centres, SureStart centres and libraries must stay closed, charities must receive less subsidies and more people must be marginalised? If the Party had any spine left, they'd be advocating scrapping Trident, the Robin Hood Tax, a 60p tax rate for the rich, or at least one off tax levees -- anything to ease the burden that these cuts will be making on those who can shoulder the least. That they're not is a damning condemnation of their simpering acceptance of the ConDemNation.

DK's picture

TM is right on. If Balls feels it necessary to insist on how little money the UK is likely to have, his response should be some authentic leftwing measures to counter this. All he's saying now is that he might position the dial slightly differently from the current government, but that their basic principles are sound. They're entirely right to say that Labour concedes they've "won the argument." Let's hear some new ideas.

Dark Heart of Toryland's picture

What is the point of voting Labour if they are simply going to implement failed ConDem policy - however reluctantly?

Freeman2's picture

TM writes, 'If the Party had any spine left, they'd be advocating scrapping Trident, the Robin Hood Tax, a 60p tax rate for the rich, or at least one off tax levees...'

I think you've summed it up perfectly - it hasn't and they won't. The Communists called Labour 'the third party of capitalism' as long ago as the 1920s and, for once, they were right.

Union Steve's picture

Balls has done more damage to the Labour movement than all the right wing media added together. Has economic credibility been restored as it Balls!

Mira Livne's picture

Ed Ball’s announcement that he intends to stick to government’s cuts including a freeze on public workers came at the time when Nick Clegg was making a speech to City bosses in the City about irresponsible capitalism. When asked to name one vested interest, Clegg had no difficulty in mentioning trade unions as Labour’s main funding body and their immense influence over Labour’s economic policies. I hope Ball’s speech was not a Knee-jerk reaction; an attempt to prove leadership control over trade unions. All that was needed was a little reminder that the Conservative Party raises, by far, the largest donations more than 50% of which comes from City bosses (I’ll try not to mention such non-resident residents as Conservative Lord Ashcroft… Woops). Nor could we expect Nick Clegg to remember a £2.4m donation to the Lib/Dem in 2005 by the convicted fraudster Michael Brown. Unless none of the above had vested interests (unlikely according to the last honours’ list), Labour has little to worry about the support they receive from trade unions, after all labour is still in the name of the Party. There is no shame either in consulting trade unions in order to consider all alternatives rather than ‘picking up a fight’ by making such an announcement. It may prove much (much) more productive to upgrade Ed Miliband’s campaign against off-shore tax evaders and tax avoiders and demonstrate how Labour may deal with them to raise far more money than they may raise from a wage freez.

Mrs,M L Bonwick-Jones's picture

Does that McClusky chap think this is a 1970's type battle like the type between Arthur Scargill and Thatcher.
Labou is led by it's politicians not union leaders, I think what has happened in Europe was a wake up call for Mr Balls, Labour really needs to be credible not popular, prehaps being popular was more important in the beginning when no one knew Ed, but i think they have had to wake up and smell the coffeeand Labour need to 'unite' behind it's leader or find a new one!
Dear Mr McClusky when one of your four horsemen of the austerity apocalype a certain Mr Liam Byrne lrft his note saying 'there is no money left' he was not joking and you also do not own the Labour Party or Ed Miliband and given the choice Labour Voters will always put their political Leaders first and if you dont like it, take your funding and give it to Caroline Lucas ( I dare you!)

Mrs,M L Bonwick-Jones's picture

Ed Miliband has just said that Len McClusky's views are wrong and that the Labour party must change.
Good for Mr Miliband slay that old Dragon and show everyone that they are wrong about you.

Hal's picture

I don't think McClusky has listened to what Ed and Ed are saying: they don't believe in austerity, and still believe in deficit spending.

The extra spending in 2015 will be directed to boost jobs and growth in the best way possible at that time, *not* merely to reverse some cuts that happened way back in 2012.

JohnBaxendale's picture

I'm amazed by some of these interpretations of Balls's statement, and the lack of grasp of reality they show. He's not 'sticking to' government cuts, just saying that it won't be possible to reverse them all. Another thousand or so soldiers are about to be made redundant. Do McClusky and co think an incoming Labour government in 2015 should, or could, just go out and rehire those people? or give public employees the pay they would have got if there hadn't been a pay freeze? Wishing these things hadn't been done is not the same thing as being able to undo them. It's important not to make promises you can't keep, but it's even more important not to make promises no sane person would believe.

writeon1's picture

But Keynes, who some people seem to believe was mentored by Trotsky, was right, one cannot "cut" or "save" one's way out of an economic slump, that road only leads to more unemployment, less demand, lower growth, falling tax revenues, and a rising deficit as a proportion of GDP. In other words a vicious downward economic spiral. Is that the path one really wants to follow?

New Labour accepts the same basic premises the other parties adhere to for realigning the UK economy, which are a combination of cuts and making the UK more competitive. More competitive is code for cutting wages.

But where will the demand come, the growth, from if one cuts both expenditure and wages? This is just one of the structural problems built into the economic model the major parties have followed for decades, effectively undermining the foundations of the entire productive industrial, manufacturing economy, whilst diverting vital resources and power to the City of London.

Surely the UK's economic strategy should be based on more than what's good for the City? Only, tragically, it isn't.

We will never get out of the slump if we become mezmerised with the threat of the deficit instead of analysing the structural problems that have caused the deficit in the first place, and that is because the UK's economy is fundamentally unbalanced in favour of the financial sector which is too big compared to manufacturing.

The problem is after going down the wrong road for thirty years it's difficult as hell to reverse, a sensible, rational, economic policy would never have led us to a dead-end in the first place. So we're stuck and there are no good options available and no magic bullets.

But as start would be to stop following this incompetent, dogmatic, group of ideologues, in the government who are only making things worse. That Labour is labled not credible, but the government's strategy is seen as credibly, is a mystery to me. How can a policy of cuts in a slump, which have been proven by history not to work, be called credible?

But to oppose the government would require Labour to have an alternative economic strategy, and, supposedly, it doesn't exist, not even in theory. Our options are severely limited to reducing the deficit at almost any cost. That the strategy for reducing the deficit strangles the rest of the economy and ultimately worsens the deficit seems of secondary importance.

Bek's picture

Ed & Ed are preparing the way for a low starting point in 2015 - I think they have to do that to establish credibility with a suspicious electorate. That is very different to saying they support the cuts. People don't hear the real message, they hear what BBC and SKY news want them to hear With regard to public sector pay freeze/constraint, I would prefer them to express a desire to stagger this. I see no reason why highly paid NHS consultants for example, lots of whom rake in £sss from their supplementary private practice, should get a pay rise - or other senior & well paid public servants for that matter. I see every need to support the low paid public sector and to getting people back into jobs. If that means I take a hit with a pay freeze, so be it. Like Chuka says, we need to get real. And good old Len McCluskey eh? Overtly supported Ed to screw David over. What goes around, comes around mate.

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