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The NHS is toxic for the Tories and they know it

An increasing number of Conservative MPs are starting to think the unloved health reforms ought some

David Cameron was rattled in the Commons today by an attack on his health reforms - and with good reason. The NHS reorganisation is a disaster on many fronts. It is unloved by doctors, poorly understood by the public and, after a series of mangling amendments in parliament, barely even resembles the vision first outlined by Health Secretary Andrew Lansley. The likeliest outcome from the whole thing is protracted chaos and worse services. This time it will be very hard for the Tories to blame the mess on Labour's legacy.

Opinion polls traditionally show Labour well ahead of Conservatives in terms of who is trusted to look after the NHS. Crucially for Ed Miliband, this is also an issue that is personally associated with David Cameron. The pledge to avoid "top down reorganisations" came from Conservative leader's lips. So did the promise to protect health spending in real terms. That will be very hard to achieve even if inflation comes down - at least not without imposing harsher cuts elsewhere. The Labour front bench think the NHS is one policy area where they might be able to puncture Cameron's famous Teflon coating. I have even heard it said by MPs, and not just from Labour ones, that the NHS alone could cost the Tories a majority at the next election

Crucially, Tory MPs are starting to get worried. They are as baffled as anyone else as to how the government got itself into this mess. Questions are increasingly being asked about Lansley's future. It is recognised that he would have to resign if the reforms were shelved. That is hard to do in practice because some of the structural changes are already under way. But as an exercise in political damage limitation it might still be worth slamming on the brakes and, if need be, losing Lansley. Very senior Tories recognise now that the NHS is their point of greatest vulnerability. So much so, in fact, that one source familiar with the Prime Minister's feelings about the subject recently told me Downing Street wished the Lib Dems had killed the thing off last year instead of insisting on a legislative "pause".

Back then Nick Clegg didn't want to be seen to be too obstructive. The Lib Dem priority was still being seen to make coalition work. With hindsight, Clegg's team now say they should have been bolshier and insisted that the NHS reforms be dropped. It is testimony to how politically toxic the whole thing has come that an increasing number of Tories on front and back benches agree.

13 comments

Richard Blogger's picture

The main problem with this bill, from labour's point of view, is that no one can understand it. So Labour can bluster about this being the privatisation and those left leaning LibDems will listen, but the vast majority of Tories won't.

Far better is to actually *explain* what the Bill will do. I think if we do this then there will be sufficient numbers of Tory MPs (and crucially, Tory councillors) who will not support the bill. Sadly, Labour has had a year to do this, but John "the invisible man" Healey did not even manage to explain the Bill to his own supporters, let alone Tories. Andy Burnham has worked very hard to improve on this, but he has had too little time.

It reflects very badly on Ed Miliband that he didn't give Burnham the Health brief from the beginning. If he had, I think the Bill would have been dropped months ago.

JacquesOuze's picture

Cameron is not going to sack Lansley and he won't abandon the bill. He can't do either of these things without looking incompentent himself and giving Labour a massive victory. They will both soldier on hoping the bill will creep through tattered but largely unscathed and that the NHS will just get on with implementing it. The NHS on the other hand will drag its feet and apply some dumb insolence in order to slow down the changes. It will be a war of attrition.

There is some potential for chaos in 2013 when some of the planned changes can't take place or when some processes and systems break down because changes have been rushed through with insufficient thought and planning. And expect the costs of the changes to go on rising, with no mention of opportunity cost.

p j wall's picture

It must be ok, Flashman told us a GP in Doncaster said so!!!
"We're all in this together"

Des Demona's picture

The Tory lie of 'no top down reorganisation' is on a par with the spineless Lib Dems ' no tuition fee rises'

When are these Lib Dem poodles actually going to stand up show some honour towards those who voted for them.

Kippers's picture

"That is hard to do in practice because some of the structural changes are already under way."

As a number of us asked yesterday: how can this be? How can the structural changes be already underway if the legislation has not yet been passed? Isn't this an attempt to railroad Parliament into accepting reforms that they haven't yet considered, by saying it would be too difficult to go back?

Livers's picture

They realise they are doing the wrong thing when its so unpopular it might cost them their jobs.

Ah yes.. together in the national interest. not.

nourredine's picture

Just watch were Lansley go if he gets the sack from minister post.
Probably working for a private medical company earning more than his ministerial salary.
That's the compensation for being sacked.
"We are all in this together"
the echo responded.

Union Steve's picture

The GP's have finaly realised that they will get the blame for the cuts and privatisations if this grubby bill is made law.
The tories are never going to accept the NHS because it's a socialist policey that worked and it is also very popular.

Reginald-Fah-fah's picture

The NHS has become a car crash for us Tories. I blame that Andrew Lansley.

I believe our great Prime Minister David Cameron will fix the problem!!!

Tacitus's picture

"The NHS is toxic for the Tories and they know it......"

Does anyone think they really care? We've another three years until the next election and, since they only have to get the support of relatively few voters in swing seats, I can't see them being very bothered.

It's more important to get their paymasters snouts in the trough.

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