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Would Scotland be forced to join the euro?

Osborne uses the most devastating weapon in the No campaign's arsenal.

The logic of George Osborne leading the charge against Alex Salmond is slowly revealing itself. The government's trump card is that an independent Scotland could be forced to join the euro, and the Chancellor is the man to play it. He told ITV News last night: "Alex Salmond has said he'd want Scotland to join the euro and you have to ask yourself is that the currency you want to be joining at the moment."

In fact, Salmond's stance on the euro is considerably more nuanced than Osborne suggests. True, in 2009, the First Minister quipped that sterling was "sinking like a stone" and argued that euro membership was becoming increasingly attractive ("the parlous state of the UK economy has caused many people in the business community and elsewhere to view membership favourably"). But that, to put it mildly, is no longer the case and, consequently, Salmond has changed tact. Like Gordon Brown circa 2003, he now states that Scotland will retain the pound until it is in the country's "economic interests" to join the euro.

But last night Osborne refused to guarantee that Scotland could keep sterling. In truth, this was a bit of mischievous politicking by the Chancellor (no one believes that the UK would stop Scotland using the pound) but the Treasury has warned that it could ban Scotland from printing Scottish bank notes (just as the eurozone requires all members to use identical bank notes) and ensure that it has no say over valuation decisions, a situation comparable to Kosovo's membership of the euro.

The SNP has since come out fighting, declaring that "the more a Tory chancellor tries to lay down the law to Scotland, the stronger support for independence will become" but this is uncomfortable territory for the party. A spokesman for John Swinney, the Scottish finance secretary, insisted that the currency situation was "crystal clear" but in reality it is several shades of grey.

EU law currently requires all new member states to join the euro area once the necessary conditions are fulfilled. As a briefing note by the House of Commons library states:

EU Member States, with the exception of Denmark and the UK, are expected to join the single currency if and when they meet the criteria. Five of the twelve states joining the EU since 2004 have gone on to join the euro. Whether Scotland joined the euro would have implications for its post-independence monetary policy, and the size of its liability for loans provided to countries facing sovereign debt problems.

Whether or not Scotland kept the UK's derogation from the euro would be dependent on the will of other EU member states. There is no precedent for a devolved part of an EU country becoming independent. For once, we really would be in uncharted territory.

Thus, there is sufficient legal uncertainty for Osborne to speculate that Scotland could be forced to join the euro. And that is the most devastating weapon in the No campaign's arsenal.

Update: I should have added that Sweden, of course, has no official opt-out from the euro but has not joined the single currency after voting no in the 2003 referendum. The country is not party to the ERM II Central Bank Agreement (part of the criteria for euro membership) giving it a de facto opt-out.

Should this precedent apply to an independent Scotland, it would similarly not be forced to join. But this is hardly the cast-iron guarantee that many Scottish voters will want.

34 comments

From the continent's picture

Let be be honest here, if the Scottish people think that they can join the EU without joining the EURO, they're delusional. Another parasitic state within the EU would be too much. Too much exceptions would only harm the Union.

The Scottish people are delusional if they think that Brussels would ever allow another state to opt-out. It would undermine the trust in the EURO even further.

I'm not saying that the Scottish people aren't allowed to have their own currency or whatever. Because once they're independent they can decide whatever they like, just as long as they're staying out of the European Union.

If they want to join, they're welcome, but don't expect to reap the benefits without giving up some things. It's a Union after all.

From the continent's picture

Let be be honest here, if the Scottish people think that they can join the EU without joining the EURO, they're delusional. Another parasitic state within the EU would be too much. Too much exceptions would only harm the Union.

The Scottish people are delusional if they think that Brussels would ever allow another state to opt-out. It would undermine the trust in the EURO even further.

I'm not saying that the Scottish people aren't allowed to have their own currency or whatever. Because once they're independent they can decide whatever they like, just as long as they're staying out of the European Union.

If they want to join, they're welcome, but don't expect to reap the benefits without giving up some things. It's a Union after all.

Fergus Pickering's picture

Kenelm, who the f*ck is Osbourne? Never heard of him. Is he some crony of the Salmon?

Siôn Jones's picture

Osborne has missed the point that whatever will be the case for scotland as a successor state within the EU will also apply to what is left of what used to be the UK. SO any concessions made by the EU to the UK regarding joining the euro will no longer apply.

purpleline's picture

It is not a threat is it commonsense would a divorced couple keep the same bank account. The answer is no.
Scotland will need to establish a Central Bank & debt office to manage the country's funding on international markets.

There has to be a clean break because if England requires interest rates higher than Scotland the Scottish would be massively disadvantaged by the UK Treasury. There can be no independence until independent control over all aspects of monetary policy.

The Scots will have to leave and will have to balance accounts having major debts of a socialist welfare state and busted banks. Scotland will hold large debt from RBS and BOS.

They also need to build a banking system or buy Scottish branches of UK banks.

What we will be seeing is the heat on Salmond as Westminster politicians from all parties actually debating him and calling his student ideals to account.

The fact that the new statesman has already taken sides shows LABOUR UP FOR WHAT IT IS. TRAITOROUS !!!

Angus McLellan's picture

This is dreadful churnalism. Even twenty minutes research on the Euro would have helped here. Nobody can be forced to join the Euro since joining the ERM - a necessary precondition to the Euro - is optional. That - and a referendum which voted no - why Sweden still hasn't joined after 16 years.

RabtheCairnTerrier's picture

Has no-one noticed the absurdity here? How exactly does Osborne "ban" another sovereign nation from printing its own banknotes?

matthew fox's picture

The SNP haven't heard of " Fiscal Union ".

Alex Salmond has had so many warm words for the euro.

David's picture

@Rab: That decision wound be one taken by the Bank of England, since it licences Scottish banks to print Sterling notes. Therefore the decision would be out of the government's hands since the BofE is independent (apparently). However, since anyone who has tried to pay with a Scottish note in England can attest, Scottish notes are effectively a de facto currency. So what would change?

More juvenile sabre-rattling from Osborne who, it must be said, is not really a big fan of the Union in any case.

damianneum's picture

RabtheCairnTerrier: It's not an absurd scenario because Scotland would be a member of a currency union with the UK. The Eurozone requires all members to use identical banknotes.

Alistair Reid's picture

So basically the update provided means that the rest of the article is a waste of time?

Drew Edward's picture

Under the current arrangement Scottish notes are not legal tender but the Bank of England allows some retail banks to issue their own notes. Under independence Scotland could continue to use the pound similiar to the arrangement in the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man as long as the notes are possession of the Crown (Scotland would remain in the Commonwealth under the Union of the Crowns unless there was a referendum on becoming a Republic) and subject to Bank of England control, i.e a Monetary Union even though these territories adminster their own governance over tax and spending. Some British Overseas territories even have their own currency seperate from the pound and not accepted in the UK. The SNP have always said they'll keep the pound until the time is right to hold a referendum on going into the Euro. But the whole thing is hypothetical until negotiations are agreed anyway.

The issue of where Trident will be located if Scotland goes independent is a potentiall far more explosive issue if you'll pardon the pun.

I expect the MOD civil servants have been looking at possible alternative sites to Faslane and Coulport but this could be a costly exercise tied up with years of legal actions through local opposition and logistical management to avoid unilateral nuclear disarmament and the loss of a seat at the UN's top table.

So if anyone in England, Wales or Northern Ireland knows of large stretches of remote deep inland water with access to the Atlantic, I suggest you send your suggestions to the MOD and US military pronto!

Jock MacSporran's picture

"Osborne uses the most devastating weapon in the 'No' campaign's arsenal...and Salmond flattens it like an irritating fly"!

praha7's picture

Surely if Scotland becomes an independent country it will have to apply to join the EU?
If this is the case then it will not have a choice as all new countries joining must take the euro as their currency.

StephenH's picture

So...the pound is not actually the British currency then? Its actually an English currency that the Scots Welsh etc. use only with English license?

Funny as I thought it was the Scots currency since 1707 and if the Union is dissolved they will have as much legal right to use the pound as the remaining part of the UK.

Certainly if the national debt, national assets are going to be shared out-- there doesn't seem any reason that Scotland could be ordered to forego their currency of the last 300 years.

Mizar's picture

The more Clegg and Osbourne try to insult and threaten Salmond - the more I warm to him. His way of "telling it" is much more persuasive than anything coming out of the Labour party.

Angus McLellan's picture

Since Eaton seems to be in the mood for research, perhaps he'll look at Ireland's experience.

For the first five years of its independence Ireland had no currency except sterling. Bank of England and Irish private bank notes (like those issued by Scots and NI banks today, backed by holdings of sterling) were the currency. Irish government bank notes replaced the private bank ones - still at par with sterling - and sterling notes gradually disappeared. After a few more years Ireland started minting coins. Soon after the gold standard ended but nothing else changed. After about 20 years Ireland established a central bank, still with the Irish pound exchangeable for sterling one to one. In the late 1970s, over fifty years after independence and about thirty years after Ireland became a republic, Ireland dropped the link with sterling and let the Irish pound float.

The Osborne line seems to be that Scotland will not be able to do as Ireland did. You might think that a non-violent split, and an agreement in principle to divide debts and assets equitably, would lead to more cooperation between the rump UK and Scotland than between the UK and Ireland. But not in Osborne's world it doesn't. A strange man.

Willp's picture

Salmond told Channel 4 News that he would, in any post-independence vote negotiation, be looking to take some 90 per cent of North Sea oil revenues but only eight per cent of the national debt.
Challenged as to whether this would be fair, given the outstanding debts of the Royal Bank of Scotland - a bank based in Scotland for which he used to work - Mr Salmond said: "Obviously the people responsible for that, just as the people who took the corporation tax over the Royal Bank of Scotland, were the London Treasury, and unfortunately they were also responsible for misregulating the financial sector as well. I'm afraid people have to take responsibility for the past mistakes they made."
Hmm - 'past mistakes', Alex?
Salmond enthusiastically backed the RBS’s disastrous takeover of the Dutch bank ABN-Amro. In May 2007 Salmond wrote to RBS boss Sir Fred Goodwin, the ‘brain’ behind this deal, which bankrupted the bank,
“Dear Fred, It is in Scottish interests for RBS to be successful, and I would like to offer any assistance my office can provide. Good luck with the bid. Yours for Scotland, Alex.”
Scotland’s secretary for finance, John Swinney, also wrote at the time that the deal was ‘an enormous achievement for RBS’ that helped make Scotland seem ‘an attractive place to do business’.
The letters make it hard for the SNP to blame London for the recession and the implosion of the Scottish banking sector.

David's picture

Hi George,

Isn't the pound a British currency? Wasn't the Bank of England also the construct of a Scot?

I come to your blog for light relief, because it is so lightweight.

Capitalist and Proud's picture

When separate states Scotland cannot print sterling. That is illegal under international law. Scotland can use sterling, they can use dollars. They just have to earn them or borrow them or a bit of both.

Willp's picture

As late as March 2008, Salmond was still selling Edinburgh’s bankers as proof that Scotland could stand on its own as part of an ‘arc of prosperity’ with Ireland and Iceland. He told an audience at Harvard, “With RBS and HBOS - two of the world’s largest banks - Scotland has global leaders today, tomorrow and for the long-term.”
Salmond blames ‘English’ light touch regulation for the damage to Scottish banking, but he didn’t criticise it at the time.
Salmond says that he would, in any post-independence vote negotiation, want to take some 90 per cent of North Sea oil revenues, but only eight per cent of the national debt.
Challenged as to whether this would be fair, given RBS’s debt, Salmond said, “Obviously the people responsible for that, just as the people who took the corporation tax over the Royal Bank of Scotland, were the London Treasury, and unfortunately they were also responsible for misregulating the financial sector as well. I'm afraid people have to take responsibility for the past mistakes they made.”
If Scotland inherited its fair share of the national debt, it would be highly indebted, even with the oil revenues. How much of RBS’s £187 billion debt, now at the UK Treasury’s Asset Protection Agency, would an independent Scotland take on? An independent Scotland could never have bailed out RBS, representing 2,500 per cent of its GDP.
The 2009 Scottish Government White paper stated, “Scotland would continue to operate within the sterling system until a decision to join the Euro by the people of Scotland in a referendum when the economic conditions were right.” Surely events since 2009 have proven that joining the euro would not be in Scotland’s interests?
The loss of economic sovereignty to the EU would mean an even less sovereign Scotland than exists within the union. If Scotland joined the euro, it would have to negotiate acquiring gold and Forex reserves from the Bank of England to give to the ECB in Frankfurt.
Why would Scotland aim to join the eurozone, to which its exports were just £9 billion, when its intra-country ‘exports’ to the rest of the UK are £36 billion, four times as much? How could an independent Scotland fund its public spending, which is higher per head than in Wales and northern England? Higher taxes? Becoming a tax haven?

RangerRab's picture

Oh dear are things not looking so rosy in wee Eck Salmond's independence garden in the past week or so? certainly a few searching questions in the past week seem to have changed things more than a bit.

For example what currency would independent Scotland use ? doubts about sterling surely after what George Osborne said? and do we really want the ill-fated Euro ?

And how would Salmond & co replace all the UK defence-dependent jobs at Faslane,Coulport,Rosyth & the Clydeside shipyards which would surely disappear as Westminster would redeploy south of the border.

Salmond's big answer to everything is North Sea oil which isn't the big money-spinner he leads us to believe. Neither is the whisky industry. Between them they'd generate less than 20billion sterling or whatever currency.

kenelm's picture

@RangerRab - you are a silly boy. Of course ALL the issues have been discussed for years. Osbourne, Clegg and Cameron are wet behind the ears.

Nigel Lipton's picture

One would hope for some intelligent discussion to be found within the comment section of a high brow organ's website such as this. Alas no.

Scotland is a member of the EU. It would remain a member of the EU. If that were not the case then the 'new' union - not UK since neither Wales or NI possess crowns - would find itself in the same boat. Drop the smug overtone. If Scotland found itself looking in then so would England and the remaining constituents of the union. That might please those over at The Spectator but I thought the sort to be found here were a bit more continental in their outlook.

I'm an Englishman, albeit with a bit of Welsh and Irish thrown in along the way, but I'm beginning to find this campaign of deliberate misinformation more than a little tedious. Let the Scots reclaim their independence and let the English reclaim their identity. The Scots never lost theirs while ours is maintained only by drunken louts who like to cause trouble during major football tournaments. In the meantime I ask you to please stop publishing nonsence which leads only to the debasement of your magazine.

Scots aren't stupid - they normally outperform Enland on OECD league tables. Negative campaigning has been tried and it has spectacularly backfired. Pressure the pro-union parties to put forward the positive case - using measurable data rather than airy fairy whims of handholding and standing together - or accept that their really isn't one.

Either way, please stop lying.

Nigel Lipton's picture

Suffice to say that since they wouldn't have to apply for membership, they wouldn't be subject to any rule, if any existed, which required that they join the Euro.

Of course, if this story wasn't nonsence then the 'New Union' would have to join the Euro when it applied to be a member. Wouldn't that make a lot of people happy...

Mario's picture

Ultimately, the question which monetary union the Scots will adopt is moot. If they wish to retain the pound, they will find a way to negotiate this - a Scottish pound which is pegged to Sterling but independent of the English central bank. Effectively, this is what is the case currently, as Scottish notes are only accepted in Scotland. If there was a real monetary union in Britain, the Bank of England would keep Scottish and Northern Irish notes in circulation as it happens with Euro coins.

As for the Euro, people need to remember that the negative view of it is constrained to Britain and was created by the chancellor and the press. The Euro is stronger than ever compared to the dollar and most countries are doing well in it. 5 years ago, you had to pay 1.50€ to buy one Pound Sterling, now you only need to pay 1.10€. But the British published opinion must retain the notion of a "euro crisis" because otherwise this government would have hardly anything positive to say about this country.

So let the Scots be independent and join the EU, a union in which they will have more of a say than is the case in their current union.

RangerRab's picture

OK kenelm (not your real name surely ?)what's the answers then?

Willp's picture

I'm all in favour of people taking people taking responsibility - but which people?
Why not the British people taking responsibility for Britain?
I'm also all in favour of not being told what to do - so why does Salmond want Brussels to tell Scotland what to do?

Hal's picture

The real problem for an independent Scotland using sterling is that it will be forced to borrow at much higher interest rates and the position may be unsustainable.

It is the same problem this is faced by eurozone countries right now: since they don't control the currency thay are borrowing in, the markets have no confidence in the arrangements for repaying the loan.

The only solutions are for Scotland to issue its own currency or to join the euro.

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