How we can make globalisation fairer

We need international action to halt the slide on corporation tax.

The world's wealthy and powerful have convened in the small Swiss town of Davos this week with income disparity high on the agenda. But although it tops the list of CEO risks, no one here appears clear about how to deal with the problem.

The global financial crash should have been the left's moment but now in the fifth year of the crisis, which unpicked many of the principal assumptions of neoliberalism and the Washington Consensus, social democrats and progressives are no closer to having an analysis about how to make the global economy work more equitably and sustainably.

The occupy movement have done much to raise awareness of the issue - spooking company bosses along the way - but they have been largely silent on alternatives, passing the buck to politicians. In the UK our elected representatives have fallen over one another to call for a more popular, responsible or mutualist form of capitalism but suggest micro measures at the domestic level. They miss the point that global fairness in a global economy starts at the global level.

A new report by IPPR, launched today in Davos, takes an analytical and historical look at globalisation to break it down into component parts and understand what has delivered progressive outcomes and what has failed. On the BBC's Today programme this morning, Lord Mandelson - who led our Globalisation project and wrote a foreword to the report - spoke of how markets, while indispensable, can become volatile and need to be regulated, and that globalisation creates income inequalities. Unlike the laissez faire approach to globalisation of the 1990s which appeared to see globalisation as an end in itself, we see that globalisation has the potential to lift people out of poverty and expand the global middle class, as it has most dramatically in China, but that it comes with risks too.

Chief among the risks are the prospect of a downward spiral on corporation tax and the excessive volatility inherent in some forms of capital mobility. The first has moved the tax burden away from global corporations towards individual income, consumption and domestic firms; the latter is part of a wider problem in the financial services sector where pay and performance have become unhinged with all the incentives geared at the short term gains rather than long term value.

Our report recommends concerted international action to halt the slide on corporation tax by making profits across Europe contingent on where sales, staff and production is actually based rather than where the head office is registered. We also push for a more widespread understanding that capital controls, which the IMF now advocate but other organizations like the WTO still oppose, are a legitimate policy in certain circumstances.

In surplus countries like China, health, unemployment and retirement insurance systems are key to reducing savings rates and increasing domestic demand. Conditional cash transfers, like, for example, former President Lula's 'bolsa familia' policy of giving poor families incentives to vaccinate their kids and send them to school, are also a good way of lifting living standards.

In current account deficit countries like the UK and US, the challenge is to increase levels of trade. The projected increases in the global middle class create huge export opportunities for Britain in educational services, higher education, medical devices,green technology, the creative industries and tourism as well as our more traditional comparative advantages such as financial services, aerospace and pharmaceuticals.

In addition we must ensure that consumption is based not on debt but on rising wages. Efforts to broaden the living wage is key to this but so too should countries like Britain reorient their welfare policies towards the crisis points that globalisation can cause like unemployment. Wage loss insurance, which would mean higher benefits when people lose their job but a requirement to pay it back when they return to employment, is another idea worth exploring. Ensuring that Britain

Meeting the concerns of citizens everywhere who feel anger at the growing disparities in society at a time of austerity is by no means easy. But it is essential if governments and CEOs are to avoid an even bigger populist backlash.

Will Straw is Associate Director at IPPR

Will Straw was Director of Britain Stronger In Europe, the cross-party campaign to keep Britain in the European Union. 

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Who will win in Stoke-on-Trent?

Labour are the favourites, but they could fall victim to a shock in the Midlands constituency.  

The resignation of Tristram Hunt as MP for Stoke-on-Central has triggered a by-election in the safe Labour seat of Stoke on Trent Central. That had Westminster speculating about the possibility of a victory for Ukip, which only intensified once Paul Nuttall, the party’s leader, was installed as the candidate.

If Nuttall’s message that the Labour Party has lost touch with its small-town and post-industrial heartlands is going to pay dividends at the ballot box, there can hardly be a better set of circumstances than this: the sitting MP has quit to take up a well-paid job in London, and although  the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs voted to block Brexit, the well-advertised divisions in that party over the vote should help Ukip.

But Labour started with a solid lead – it is always more useful to talk about percentages, not raw vote totals – of 16 points in 2015, with the two parties of the right effectively tied in second and third place. Just 33 votes separated Ukip in second from the third-placed Conservatives.

There was a possible – but narrow – path to victory for Ukip that involved swallowing up the Conservative vote, while Labour shed votes in three directions: to the Liberal Democrats, to Ukip, and to abstention.

But as I wrote at the start of the contest, Ukip were, in my view, overwritten in their chances of winning the seat. We talk a lot about Labour’s problem appealing to “aspirational” voters in Westminster, but less covered, and equally important, is Ukip’s aspiration problem.

For some people, a vote for Ukip is effectively a declaration that you live in a dump. You can have an interesting debate about whether it was particularly sympathetic of Ken Clarke to brand that party’s voters as “elderly male people who have had disappointing lives”, but that view is not just confined to pro-European Conservatives. A great number of people, in Stoke and elsewhere, who are sympathetic to Ukip’s positions on immigration, international development and the European Union also think that voting Ukip is for losers.

That always made making inroads into the Conservative vote harder than it looks. At the risk of looking very, very foolish in six days time, I found it difficult to imagine why Tory voters in Hanley would take the risk of voting Ukip. As I wrote when Nuttall announced his candidacy, the Conservatives were, in my view, a bigger threat to Labour than Ukip.

Under Theresa May, almost every move the party has made has been designed around making inroads into the Ukip vote and that part of the Labour vote that is sympathetic to Ukip. If the polls are to be believed, she’s succeeding nationally, though even on current polling, the Conservatives wouldn’t have enough to take Stoke on Trent Central.

Now Theresa May has made a visit to the constituency. Well, seeing as the government has a comfortable majority in the House of Commons, it’s not as if the Prime Minister needs to find time to visit the seat, particularly when there is another, easier battle down the road in the shape of the West Midlands mayoral election.

But one thing is certain: the Conservatives wouldn’t be sending May down if they thought that they were going to do worse than they did in 2015.

Parties can be wrong of course. The Conservatives knew that they had found a vulnerable spot in the last election as far as a Labour deal with the SNP was concerned. They thought that vulnerable spot was worth 15 to 20 seats. They gained 27 from the Liberal Democrats and a further eight from Labour.  Labour knew they would underperform public expectations and thought they’d end up with around 260 to 280 seats. They ended up with 232.

Nevertheless, Theresa May wouldn’t be coming down to Stoke if CCHQ thought that four days later, her party was going to finish fourth. And if the Conservatives don’t collapse, anyone betting on Ukip is liable to lose their shirt. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.