The myth of Cameron's legal challenge to Salmond

Scottish Secretary Michael Moore says UK government would not challenge Salmond's referendum.

Does the Scottish government have the legal right to hold a referendum on independence? Alex Salmond and some constitutional lawyers insist it does, the UK government and some constitutional lawyers insist it does not.

The vote Salmond intends to hold in autumn 2014 would be an advisory one (the SNP concedes that it does not have the power to hold a binding referendum) designed to provide him with a clear mandate to negotiate for independence. But in his statement to the Commons yesterday, Michael Moore, the Secretary of State for Scotland, declared that even this would be legally questionable. So, assuming Salmond proceeds, would the UK government challenge him in the courts? Apparently not. Here's what Moore told Scotland Tonight yesterday evening.

Interviewer: The idea that it could be legally challenged, who's going to mount that challenge?

Michael Moore: Anybody could and I don't think that a decision of this magnitude about whether or not Scotland stays part of the most successful multi-nation state in the history of the world or goes its own separate way, I don't think that should be left ...

Interviewer: Would the UK government launch that challenge though?

Michael Moore: While there's a prospect that anybody could, it's not our intention to do that.

But as the blog Wings over Scotland asks, why would the UK government not challenge what it ostensibly believes is an illegal attempt to break up the Union? Moore's words will inevitably prompt questions about the government's true opinion of the legality of a Scottish-led referendum.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Donald Trump's healthcare failure could be to his advantage

The appearance of weakness is less electorally damaging than actually removing healthcare from millions of people.

Good morning. Is it all over for Donald Trump? His approval ratings have cratered to below 40%. Now his attempt to dismantle Barack Obama's healthcare reforms have hit serious resistance from within the Republican Party, adding to the failures and retreats of his early days in office.

The problem for the GOP is that their opposition to Obamacare had more to do with the word "Obama" than the word "care". The previous President opted for a right-wing solution to the problem of the uninsured in a doomed attempt to secure bipartisan support for his healthcare reform. The politician with the biggest impact on the structures of the Affordable Care Act is Mitt Romney.

But now that the Republicans control all three branches of government they are left in a situation where they have no alternative to Obamacare that wouldn't either a) shred conservative orthodoxies on healthcare or b) create numerous and angry losers in their constituencies. The difficulties for Trump's proposal is that it does a bit of both.

Now the man who ran on his ability to cut a deal has been forced to make a take it or leave plea to Republicans in the House of Representatives: vote for this plan or say goodbye to any chance of repealing Obamacare.

But that's probably good news for Trump. The appearance of weakness and failure is less electorally damaging than actually succeeding in removing healthcare from millions of people, including people who voted for Trump.

Trump won his first term because his own negatives as a candidate weren't quite enough to drag him down on a night when he underperformed Republican candidates across the country. The historical trends all make it hard for a first-term incumbent to lose. So far, Trump's administration is largely being frustrated by the Republican establishment though he is succeeding in leveraging the Presidency for the benefit of his business empire.

But it may be that in the failure to get anything done he succeeds in once again riding Republican coattails to victory in 2020.

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to British politics.