What keeps Alex Salmond awake at night?
A full war chest and a charismatic leader doesn't guarantee referendum success.
By Jon Bernstein Published 29 December 2011 19:00
Asked by Shaun Ley on Radio 4's The World at One, if he thought "devo max" -- a souped up version of Scotland's current form of autonomy -- rather than all-out independence was a more likely outcome of a future referendum, Alex Salmond was characteristically defiant.
"No, I think we'll win the independence referendum," Scotland's First Minister and SNP leader said. And you would expect him to say little else. A seasoned politician, he knows the dangers of accepting the premise of a journalist's question such as this. Moreover, independence has been always been the goal -- and the dream.
But the runners-up prize -- which would give Holyrood control over tax and spend but not foreign policy nor defence -- may be as good as it gets for Salmond and his party. And even that is not a given.
There is little doubt that Salmond is a highly admired, and feared, political operator. As Jonathan Freedland points out in this morning's Guardian, this is a man who is fêted even by his opponents. And it was the Times which earlier this week named him Briton of the Year. (Given Salmond's separatist designs, the compliment was loaded, if not backhanded.)
The same paper carried a two-page feature (£) today on the possibility of an independent Scotland. To quote the introduction:
A full war chest, a charismatic leader and superior tactics -- can anything stop the SNP's independence campaign?
Turning John Rentoul's famed meme on its head, this is a question to which the answer is yes. The independence vote -- tipped to take place in June 2014 to coincide with the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn -- may turn out to be a double defeat, and here's why.
Firstly, Salmond's popularity doesn't necessarily equate to popularity for independence. As John Curtice, professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde, notes in the Times article, those who jumped late on to the SNP bandwagon as last May's Holyrood elections approached were far from ideological. Support for the SNP doesn't always mean support for a clean break from the Union.
And after a post-election bounce, a familiar pattern to polling returned by late summer -- namely, those in favour of independence fell below 40 per cent. A TNS poll for the Sunday Herald in September, for example, had those who would vote yes at 39 per cent compared to 38 per cent who would vote no. A lead for sure, but far from decisive.
"Devo max", meanwhile, appears more popular, although don't be fooled by what UK Polling Report's Anthony Wells rightly describes as some "voodoo polling".
But here's the catch. The key gain from devolution max is fiscal autonomy but opinion polls are evenly divided between those who think the economy will perform better under Holyrood control, those that think it will make no difference, and those who think it will perform worse. As Curtice notes:
This is the most vital part of the argument that the SNP has still to win. Once you start trying to predict for and against independence, the economy is very important.
As a referendum gets closer, expect those fighting for the Union to exploit these doubts over the economy.
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22 comments
Home rule for England, typically of your ilk you twist to suit your blinkered agenda. London is twice the size of Scotland and gets more money per head yet all the English anti scottish morons who write articles for the tabloids in England ignore that.
Using the argument many ignorant-of-the numbers English nationalists use i could argue that Scottish taxes are used to subsidise London. Except of course we never hear the numbers from them as it shows them up to be talking shite.
You cant criticise what Scotland gets while London gets more.End of. Northern ireland gets more than Scotland too yet seems to escape criticism. It is also conveniently ignored that Scotland has approx a twelfth of the population of the UK but over a third of the geographical area which makes maintaining infrastructure massively more expensive than it does in England. What's Londons excuse for getting all that money? "Begging subsidy junkies" are they? as the Scots often seem to be described.
"As a referendum gets closer, expect those fighting for the Union to exploit these doubts over the economy." And expect the same reaction to the Unionist parties' negative campaigning in the election. You betray your own naivety, sir.
Rather hopeful slanted article. Regularly suppport for a form of devo max stands at above 80%. Full independance currently is a toss of the coin job.
But here's the point , 4 years into a second round of Thatcherism Scotland didn't for? That makes things a fair bit more attractive for the SNP. That's the reason the SNP are hanging fire. Quite rightly so.
On the economy, if you ask Scots who they'd rather trust to run the economy, the moronic Osborne or Salmond you'd get a very clear answer.
Another thing to think about. Labour isn't trusted up here anymore and it would have to be them making the case for the Union. If the unionists were stupid enough to send Tories and Lib Dems up here to make the case then they'd be playing into the SNP's hands.
Here's hoping they do
Listen to the interview on The World at One here http://bit.ly/uZ8lYV
But Benjamin, why should 4 years of a Thatcherite Government cause a problem? After all, Eck said, didnt he, that Scotland didnt mind Thatchers economic policies?
http://www.scotsman.com/news/alex_salmond_scotland_didn_t_mind_thatcher_...
Right enough, Scotland was fine with Thatcher. Forgot about that
As a Scot who lives and works in Scotland, I'm getting sick and tired of Salmond and the SNP presuming to speak for me, and trying to define how I should see my Scottishness. IE, it stops at a line on a map.
Just curious Mike. From I can gather your a progressive who is very unhappy with the coalition and the current tone of UK politics. Is it not appealing to have the opportunity to take Scotland in a different direction from the disgraceful policies currently being pushed through.
I'm not a nationalist by nature but I'm thoroughly sick of right wing policies being pursued by Labour and Tory governments and see an opportunity for something different with independence.
In a perfect world you'd prefer not to have to seperate but England seems to want something different.
Since it really does look as if the Government is going to take up the Conservative peers' proposal to give the Scottish devolved body the power to legislate for an independence referendum, Alex Salmond's bluff is about to be called.
Independence is the issue that Salmond wishes would just go away. The present arrangement demonstrably suits him down to the ground. But his party possibly could not survive a No vote, and certainly would never forgive him either for such a result or for his failure to pose the question at all.
It is no wonder that the bluff-calling has come from that particular quarter. Among the longstanding electoral coalitions in Scotland is the one made up of moderate Keynesians, mild social conservatives, those who cherish shortbread tin Scottishness, posh people and those who aspire to be so considered, visceral enemies of municipal Labour and the trade unions, and a fringe of white Protestant supremacists.
That coalition's newer vehicle won the last Holyrood Election outright, giving Scotland the Tory majority government that England does not have. But that coalition's older vehicle has spotted the potential there: people like that are manifestly numerous enough to deliver such a victory, and their old party wants them back to that end. All that it has to do is force the newcomers out of the way.
Their failure to hold the referendum for which their party exists should do it. Their failure to win that referendum should do it. Quite plausibly, their failure to lose that referendum should do it, since after independence, how could the officially Tory party still be presented as English?
And what, exactly, would be the remaining point of the SNP, its many Hard Left activists having no sympathy whatever with the common or garden domestic policies that both its leaders and its voters would seek to pursue once the constitutional question was out of the way?
Alex Salmond is a remarkably skillful politician. He is going to need to be.
I think he will at least get devo max ( my preferred option) as Scots will look at osbourne and think they have a chance never to be ruled by these millionaire selfish greedy wankers ever again. They look at labour and see a party told what to do from westminster and don't even mention Clegg up here. One recent poll had the lib dems on 1% in Scotland.
I know lots of mis informed English think we get too much cash here but we get less per head than London and Northern ireland but we contribute nearly 9% of tax with just over 8% of the population. For that reason alone the Tories and labour should be making a case to keep the union together.
What pejorative tosh. But, hey, ya got a column in the New Statesman.
When, for instance, did the US last celebrate Separatism Day?
Fraziel, I'm sure you have plenty of millionaire greedy wankers of your own. Certain bankers spring unbidden to mind. And is not the blessed Gordo a millionaire? Come to that, how much is fat Salmond worth? I'd guess he's in the millionaire class too.
We need the NS to take a lead in redefining this debate. The union is bust, totally bust, and all of us, including the English, would benefit from a willing generous renegotiation to give each of the nations sovereignty, and create a new British confederation. Best of all worlds in a "velvet divorce".
Some fair points and shows the polls are notoriously difficult to rely on. They gave Labour a 10 point lead months before the Scottish elections and the rest as they say is history.
But the big worry for the pro-union camp is people are no longer afraid of the SNP, quite happily voting in a party that offers an independence referendum and all the implications that could bring, less convinced of the 'better the devil you know arguments'.
People used to rely on most of their information from the pro-union media (remember most newspapers are London/American owned and largely anti SNP/Salmond/independence) but the internet has given people a wider access to other points of view. Once the SNP got into power in Scotland in 2007 they got access to civil service information and could release official figures they think backs up their cause and it spreads via social media and blogs.
FOI has also proved a game changer and the 30 year limit to classified documents from the 1970s and 1980s is reaching its end. The McCrone report released in 2005 is just one example of how the UK Government will try to suppress information to defeat the SNP http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/4238744.stm
Salmond may be the driving force behind the SNP's recent success but remember even without his presence at Holyrood in 2003, pro independence parties (SNP, SSP, Greens, Margo) held 49 seats after the 2003 Scottish elections, just 7 short of Labour's winning 56 number of seats.
10 years of devolution has given confidence that Scotland can administer it's own affairs at least to a competent level, and whatever the eventual outcome of constitutional change, it looks like it is coming sooner or later.
Now, now John Ruddy. Edited quotes are always partial. Always quote fully. What Alex Salmond said was:
"The SNP has a strong, beating social conscience, which is very Scottish in itself. One of the reasons Scotland didn’t take to Lady Thatcher was because of that. It didn’t mind the economic side so much. But we didn’t like the social side at all. One of the most famous phrases in Scottish history is the ‘Community of the realm’ – I used it earlier. This idea that there is a community of interest stretching across the population. It’s a very Scottish concept and Scotland doesn’t like people who regale against it."
Claiming Alex Salmond is a closet Thatcherite is a bit rich coming from an Labour activist whose party fought tooth and nail in the 2011 Scottish elections against independence and campaigned to keep Scotland under the thumb of the Tory coalition in Westminster. Better Tory run than independent was the Labour slogan in Scotland in 2011.
Benjamin - correct, I am angered and disgusted by the policies of the Coalition and the Blair/Brown cabal that came before it (though it has to be said that at least Labour retains a few shreds of social conscience, muffled as they are, in contrast with the Tories who only need to be described to be condemned). I have spent most of my adult life arguing or campaigning against the kind of rightwing pro-market blinkered agenda now being forced on all the peoples of the UK but get this - I have no desire to abandon the fight. To me, independence would be the easy option and in my heart of hearts I cannot and will not step back from opposing the forces that are hellbent on turning the UK (or even just England if it comes to that) into the 51st State.
More ill-informed, bitter nonsense from David Lindsay. I see that you're still trying to peddle the lie that the SNP is supported by a combination of "moderate Keynesians, mild social conservatives, those who cherish shortbread tin Scottishness, posh people and those who aspire to be so considered, visceral enemies of municipal Labour and the trade unions, and a fringe of white Protestant supremacists."
Let's look at those categories, will we? The first two groups will vote for any party in Scotland bar the SSP. The next three? Shortbread tin Scottishness...perhaps a very small proportion. Posh people and people who aspire to be posh? Represented in equal measure by Tories, SNP and Labour (remember that, as the-up to now-establishment party in Scotland, Labour has been a magnet for ambitious chancers). Visceral enemies of municipal Labour-well, yes: given that, apart from the fact both parties are vying for power with one another, municipal labour in Scotland is characterised by venality and incompetence. Enemies of the unions? Bullshit. White protestant supremacists? That's a lie, and you know it. Why don't you inform yourself of what you're attempting to comment on before you open your mouth and let your belly rumble?
What with the coalition government currently wrecking the UK economy, combined with the fact the current Labour Party have NOT YET demonstrated any real signs of moving on from the era of New Labour era, not to mention the resounding SNP victory in this years Holyrood elections, why wait until 2014 for the referendum. Why not do it in 2012, strike whilst the iron is hot.
Fergus,
I am sure Brown and Salmond have got a few quid but they did not get it by putting profit and business over people and their parents were not Lords, ladies and multi millionaires like some Tories and their voters. They came from relatively normal backgrounds rather than one of privilige and wealth. That is the difference and if you can't see it then I wonder what you have between your ears. Scottish people see it and that's why we utterly despise the toff public school rich Englishcentric Tories who seem to make most of their decisions from ideology.
@Fraziel 1 "I know lots of mis informed English think we get too much cash here but we get less per head than London and Northern ireland but we contribute nearly 9% of tax with just over 8% of the population".
London is a city not a nation. So why compare it with Scotland?. What about Glasgow? It would be more relevent to compare London with Glasgow. How much does the average Glaswegian get in subsidies? What does Glasgow receive compared with Edinburgh?
Mike Cobley,
fair enough, that's your view. From my perspective anything that breaks up those scumbags grip on power ( and I'm not just talking about transitory governments) then it has to be a good thing. Who know's, perhaps the sight of a fairer, prosperous Scotland will change the consensus in England. By the way, I think your being a bit generous on Labour. Rather than a shred of social conscience they're just a little less viscious than the Tories to give the appearance of choice at the ballot box.
Home rule for England
In case you weren't aware, London has twice the population of Scotland. Just a thought
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