The UK in splendid isolation

Hungary signals willingness to take part in EU treaty leaving the UK on its own.

Well, that didn't last long. The UK's short-lived alliance with Hungary is over after the latter's government indicated its willingness to take part in the proposed treaty change, subject to a parliamentary vote. Sweden and the Czech Republic (the only other two countries not to sign up to the process) had already done so.

Here's the key paragraph from the revised statement issued by European heads of state:

The Heads of State or Government of Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Sweden indicated the possibility to take part in this process after consulting their Parliaments where appropriate.

In other words, the UK really is in splendid isolation. As Rafael wrote earlier, Cameron's non-deal has led us to the outermost margin of the EU and ever closer to the exit. Indeed, the more excitable europhiles are suggesting that's exactly where we're heading. Former Europe minister Denis MacShane has declared that there is now "little point in Britain staying in the EU. Bill Cash has won and I congratulate him and other Eurosceptics on their victory." If such talk grows, the pressure for an in/out referendum (as advocated by the Lib Dems at the last election) will increase.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Here's something the political class has completely missed about Brexit

As Hillary Clinton could tell them, arguments about trade have a long, long afterlife. 

I frequently hear the same thing at Westminster, regardless of whether or not the person in question voted to leave the European Union or not: that, after March 2019, Brexit will be “over”.

It’s true that on 30 March 2019, the United Kingdom will leave the EU whether the government has reached a deal with the EU27 on its future relationship or not. But as a political issue, Brexit will never be over, regardless of whether it is seen as a success or a failure.

You don’t need to have a crystal ball to know this, you just need to have read a history book, or, failing that, paid any attention to current affairs. The Democratic primaries and presidential election of 2016 hinged, at least in part, on the consequences of the North American Free Trade Association (Nafta). Hillary Clinton defeated a primary opponent, Bernie Sanders, who opposed the deal, and lost to Donald Trump, who also opposed the measure.

Negotiations on Nafta began in 1990 and the agreement was fully ratified by 1993. Economists generally agree that it has, overall, benefited the nations that participate in it. Yet it was still contentious enough to move at least some votes in a presidential election 26 years later.

Even if Brexit turns out to be a tremendous success, which feels like a bold call at this point, not everyone will experience it as one. (A good example of this is the collapse in the value of the pound after Britain’s Leave vote. It has been great news for manufacturers, domestic tourist destinations and businesses who sell to the European Union. It has been bad news for domestic households and businesses who buy from the European Union.)

Bluntly, even a successful Brexit is going to create some losers and an unsuccessful one will create many more. The arguments over it, and the political fissure it creates, will not end on 30 March 2019 or anything like it. 

Stephen Bush is special correspondent at the New Statesman. His daily briefing, Morning Call, provides a quick and essential guide to domestic and global politics.