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The Eurosceptic prophecy fulfils itself

Cameron has traded influence in the European Union for a brief respite from rebellion in his party,

David Cameron really didn't have much of a choice in the end. As it became clear that he simply wasn't going to get the concessions he needed – "safeguarding" Britain's interests in the single market; blocking aspects of European financial services reform – he couldn't sign up to a new EU deal. Trying to force such a treaty through parliament would be immensely painful and damaging to the Prime Minister. Besides, Ireland and the Netherlands have constitutional obligations to hold referendums on new EU treaties. It would be very difficult for Cameron to refuse to consult his citizens if the Dutch and Irish were being asked.

So he said "no". What does this mean? The eurozone members and six others – a eurozone-plus – aim to proceed with their own pact to stabilise the single currency and pursue fiscal integration. Technically, it is very difficult for them to use EU institutions to enforce their deal (which is why Germany, in particular, would have preferred a full 27-member EU treaty, and why markets will question whether the euro has in fact been saved).

There will now be a lot of wrangling over what competences this new inner European core has to enact economic reforms that affect the outer tier. Britain's problem is that the outer tier is tiny: the UK and Hungary, possibly Sweden and the Czech Republic. Legally they have a strong case to prevent the eurozone-plus group from building a new institutional architecture from existing EU bodies – the Commission, the Court, the Parliament etc.

But in practice the inner core is big enough to form a majority in the Council – the assembly of heads of government where real EU decisions are made – to the near-permanent exclusion of Britain. This is the "caucusing" effect that the Foreign Office has been worried about – a situation in which the eurozone gang arrives at summits with a pre-agreed position and presents it to the outer tier as a fait accompli. When the reality of that new balance of power becomes clear, Hungary and the other naysayers might well decide their long-term interests are better served by eventually joining the inner circle, leaving the UK completely isolated.*

In other words, Cameron has blocked a treaty that he judges might have damaged UK interests, thereby creating a new settlement in the EU that could permanently tilt future negotiations against Britain. That in turn means hardline Tory sceptics will have good grounds to say that our relationship with the EU has been fundamentally altered and, inevitably, that there should be a referendum.

As I wrote yesterday, the Tories bank concessions on Europe and then come back for more. Last night Cameron made a very big concession indeed – he removed Britain from the next phase of the European project.

Sceptics should be pleased and, as my colleague Samira Shackle has noted this morning, some of them are. Then they will find, as they always do, that pushing for separation leads to diplomatic isolation, which reinforces their suspicion that the whole thing is a conspiracy against Britain. The prophecy fulfils itself. So they will insist that Cameron now set about the business of "repatriating" powers from Brussels, which, of course, he is much less able to do, having isolated the UK and antagonised fellow EU leaders. And when Cameron cannot then secure adequate "repatriation" – and nothing short of divorce is adequate for some Tory backbenchers – the calls for a referendum will sound out louder than ever.

The Prime Minister's non-deal in Brussels last night has bought him just a brief a moment of respite from rebellion in his own party. For that, he has accepted a downgrading of UK diplomatic relations with our major trading partners, leading us to the outermost margin of the EU and ever closer to the exit.

*Update: Indeed, Hungary sensed which way the wind was blowing pretty quickly and has now lined up with the non-UK consensus. It is still possible, of course, that Cameron is gambling that this emergency alliance of the rest of Europe will not last. National parliaments will have to be brought on side, some countries will expect referendums on a new euro pact and, crucially, since last night's deal doesn't appear to have actually resolved the structural flaws in the design of the single currency it might well fail to ease the market pressure driving the euro members apart. If it becomes clear that smaller states have signed up for something that gives Germany and France all of the power with no economic security in return there is bound to be a significant nationalist backlash in many countries. The whole thing could unravel, in which case the hardline British eurosceptics' ambition of getting out altogether would be realised even sooner.

50 comments

Anthony's picture

Well done David !!!! there is a big wide world out there, Europe is a declining continent becoming perfectionists and withdrawing into themselves , i say let them, let them stifle growth with more and more regulations and a banking tax, that will play nicely into London's hands. Now lets get more power back !!

WELL DONE DAVID !!!!!

J Hill's picture

Just to say I think Labour has made a big mistake on this. Ed Miliband and Douglas Alexander are calling this a disaster for Britain. I'm not sure the country will agree at all. I think Ed will be seen as a weak cop-out for this stance.

ryan's picture

It isn't settled yet:
Bloomberg:: Finland is ready to withdraw its support from Europe’s permanent rescue mechanism if the Nordic country’s condition of unanimous decision making is ignored, Finance Minister Jutta Urpilainen said.
The Dutch and Irish will also be wary of an agreement that ultimately could dictate tax policy.Taking the long approach is the least worst option.

willoyen's picture

"Britain may assume it will benefit from extra business for the City, should the euro zone ever pass a financial-transaction tax. But what if the new club starts imposing financial regulations among the 17 euro-zone members, or the 23 members of the euro-plus pact? That could begin to force euro-denominated transactions into the euro zone, say Paris or Frankfurt. Britain would, surely, have had more influence had the countries of the euro zone remained under an EU-wide system."
- today's Economist

john henry's picture

So now we now know that Dodgy Dave is a defender of the Banksters. He's like Basil Fawlty; irrational and erratic. Or should I say a Don Quixote type character erecting imaginary "Eurowindmills" to fight and appease for now his rabid, right-wing, reactionary back benchers. The Tories truly are a fetter on Britain making progress in the world. They are backward, inward looking, insular and pathetically parochial. They are holding this country back from making economic progress and its people are SUFFERING as a result. We are stuck with a Government mired in ideology, wilfully preventing growth to save the face and reputations of Call me Dave and Boy Georgie. What a complete shambles!!

south pacific's picture

Quite interesting to read the article and comments from the other side of the world.

Some of you still believe you are an empire. Well most of the former colonies are doing quite well since they got you of their back.

In many of those countries you don't find any British products. First you have nothing worthwhile to sell. Second one can buy things cheaper from Asia.

Now you have pissed off all your trading partners in Europe you might even get another shock, at least economically.

You got the declining US left which has even more debt than all of Europe.

Why would anyone want financial services from the city of London lot. They are all crooks and are part of the cause of the mess that now exists.

We have strict financial regulations in my country and the banks are not stuffed. Since they are doing very well a super profit tax on bank earnings is being considered.

Well if the banks can rip the people off, the people through the government can put the squeeze on the banks. if the banks don't like it one can nationalise them. It is called expropriation without compensation.

It works because greedy shareholder, once the know what is coming, prefer to get something rather than lose the lot. That is that they accept lower dividends as a result of higher taxes
instead of losing all their shareholdings.

Perhaps you people should consider that approach for the city of London crooks. then you would have money to wind back some of the cuts in govt spending which you have to endure now.

If you want to get hold of an omelette you have to break a few eggs.

Now don't tell me that this isn't democracy.

In case you haven't noticed it, real power in a democracy is exercised by money. Just look at all the examples around you.
You can see that governments are afraid to tackle the moneyed lot, also called the financial services industry.

Power to the people for the people
is an illusion.

Anyway I hope the world will muddle through this mess in time.

Perhaps it will be the recession we had to have....to knock a bit of sense into some people.

Look at it this way.
The important question of our time are not resolved by endless discussions or majority decisions but by hard work and industry.

Just look how far the Chinese have come in the last 20 odd years using this approach.

The West has become lazy and flabby.
it can't even pull together to save itself.

A comment from the world outside of Europe and the US.

Robert Taggart's picture

Euro-sceptics unite or die,
chastise all centrics when any lie,
Euro-centrics divide and rule,
scorn all sceptics like any fool.

Stuart Eels's picture

I stand corrected you are not all insane just 99.9%. The Euro will still go down the plughole and maybe Sterling but not so fast. Thank you Gordon Brown for not letting Blair sign us up to this nightmare fairytale!!!!!!!!!!!

Fergus Pickering's picture

Who is Raphael Behr and in whose interest does he speak?

Benedict's picture

He's Rafael Behr and he speaks for himself.

willoyen's picture

Interesting comment on a sad situation for the uk. The Europhobes get what they want. “Europsceptics” is a flattering euphemism with connotations of rationality and subtlety. Their psychology is well described here. The 'self-fulfilling prophecy', the paranoia, and the consequent hysteria they work up in the voters. “Now we will get our country back” sort of rubbish. And all, to judge from Cameron’s and Hague’s words, to save the largely foreign run City from regulation which would do it a lot of good. Even New York is considering a Tobin type tax. God Save the British, in their idiotic charge of the light brigade of one. (oh sorry, two, if you include the nasty little nationalistic government of Orban's Hungary).

Dickie1's picture

Well done Dave!

Now, let's have a referendum in the spring, and to ensure a good turn out, let's have a General Election too.

Mike S's picture

Who is Fergus Pickering and in whose interest does he speak?

Mrs.Josephine Hyde-Hartley's picture

Personally, don't know what all the fuss is about really.I think the P.M. has done a good job in making sure safety comes first. We're still in the same position as we were five or six years ago when the "four red lines" treaty was thrashed out during Mr.Blair's office of P.M...which in todays eventual context means were probably ahead of the curve. So that's good enough for me.

madasbalooons's picture

This was an all too convenient out for Cameron, and he grasped it with both hands.For a whim, and of course self preservation,he has isolated Britain at a stroke, strongly supported by his collaborator Clegg.
Big mistake.

Rory Harden's picture

Bulldog spirit?

'Safeguarding' the greedsters who wrecked the economy while lusting after the power to do down the pay and conditions of ordinary British workers--is there to be found anywhere a less patriotic creature than the eurosceptic Tory?

Bob the Builder's picture

Perhaps all the europhiles would have preferred him to say yes. That would in all probability have led to a number of referenda - probably even one in the UK which the europhiles would lose and so putting an end to their cause for a generation

David's picture

If this is 'bulldog spirit', the dog in question was neutered and then ate its own gonads. It's high time we were rid of this blithering idiot and his millionaire chums.

I also find it highly amusing that he seems happy to see the breakup of the EU while wanting the same thing not to happen to the UK. I'm sure the irony is completely lost on him though.

J Hill's picture

Cameron hasn't "isolated" Britain. It's the world's fifth largest economy and a massive EU trading partner. In or out, the reality is we are in the same economic region and always will be. No British Prime Minister (Ed Miliband included) could possibly sign up to a Tobin tax that penalises the world's largest financial market, the City. 80 per cent of Europe's banking deals are done here. The really "isolated" countries are places like Ireland, Greece and Italy who will now have a German government dictating their economic policies. What a blow for democracy.

Stuart Eels's picture

Are you people insane? What has Call me Dave opted out of? We are not in the deeply flawed, troubled, failing Eurozone, which Gordon Brown has to be thanked for. What Germany and France were proposing was to save that Eurozone "for a while" with £78 billion Tobin Tax £57 billion of which would come from the UK, nice!

You might not like the Fat Cat owners of most of the City of London but don't forget all the British jobs that would be lost as a result. Sweden tried this tax years ago and it nearly bankrupted them. Do you want this country bankrupted saving a currency to which we never belonged, to which countries were allowed in after they fiddled their figures and are themselves not paying one iota of Tobin Tax?

If you do, you are in a very small minority within this country!

thinkov's picture

I don't want the common market market for the banks to exist for one more second -let it die

mike cobley's picture

As I understand it, a few other countries do have a financial transaction taxes, such well-known econonmic failures as Switzerland, China and Singapore (oh, and Hong Kong). And according to Wikipedia, "The state of New York levies a stamp duty on trades taking place on both the New York Stock Exchange and on NASDAQ."

Wow, how about that, eh?

maryb's picture

The bulldog with the bull terrier. He did nicely out of his expenses. Is that what is meant by the 'bulldog spirit?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mps-expenses/5582209/MPs-expe...

Lady J's picture

UPDATE, UPDATE;

It is no longer the Eurozone plus 6. It is now 26 countries with only Britain left out.
The Hungarian Foreign Minister just contacted the BBC and said they had no such agreement to veto, and that only Britain is left out.

Sarkozy actually said it was Britain who scappered the deal but the British media as usual miss-intepreted his speech in their haste to get the news out.

Gas's picture

An Impossible situation to be honest.

On one hand why should we bailout the Eurozone but on other if they fail it will go down and almost certainly take us with it.

I was under the understanding this charge on financial transactions would be worldwide? I gather that must be wrong but if it is adopted worldwide then it won't drive business from the UK.

Graeme Hancocks's picture

Good headlines in the Sun, Mail and Telegraph etc and the good opinion - and continued bankrolling - by banker wankers and other tory backers are all that count. Of course, the eurosecptics and other little englanders everywhere are delighted. The consequences of our isolation - and much worst if the Euro fails - arent taken into consideration. Cameron and gideon and clegg are probably looking around for future scapegoats to blame for the (new) problems they have created to join the exisiting one's they already have.

Tomas Breannacht's picture

The euro will survive and it would be in Britain's interest to join it. If we have a referendum it will show the benefits clearly. The eurosceptics are a group of plank-heads - they are allied to the bankers who caused the crisis. A euro gyro bank is what is required to facilitate trade with our major trading partners. The crisis will act as a vaccination for the Euro - it will emerge much stronger. We should think of joining now.

Marcus Bessner's picture

I agree with above - in fact Denmark is thinking of joining - as those who watched it's Prime Minister on Newsnight the other night will have gathered. It was good to see Paxman flabbergasted. Feisal Islam has he been gavelled ? His stomach looks like a foie gras and his mouth like the derriere of a canard ? I forgot he's Channel 4's inexpert expert.

ektope's picture

The British never wanted to be in the EE.So good riddance and they do not have to have a referendum , just get out and let us solve our problems.Thank you for your exit.

Freeman2's picture

This is Fergus Pickering: 'I grew up in North London and had a North London accent. I went to Scotland at ( and had an Edinburgh accent - bloody sharpish I can tell you. I went to Oxford and spoke posh. Now I live in Kent and have reverted to North London. I can do the others at the dropof a hat. Can't anyone?'

He is, in short a chameleon.

http://www.spectator.co.uk/alexmassie/7442365/outrageous-outrage.thtml

Freeman2's picture

ektope writes, 'The British never wanted to be in the EE.'

1975: 'Do you think the UK should stay in the European Community (Common Market)?'

Yes:
17,378,581 (67.2%)

No:
8,470,073 (32.8%)

Reginald-Fah-fah's picture

Marvellous move by Prime Minister David Cameron.

Great to see a Statesman who put that french little fellow in his place.

Good time here again for Great Britain. Let the Eurozone go bust.

The Gadflyista's picture

If the EU summit was a playground, Merkel was definitely the biggest kid, wanting to decide the terms under which everyone played with the toys. Sarko was definitely the weasely little kid, who bullied all the harder in the hope of ingratiating himself with the biggest kid. And finally, Cameron was the big but rather brattish kid, who rather than making common cause with the other kids who were sick to death of being told what to do by the bullies, ran of screeching that he wasn't going to play at all if playing meant he had to share any of the toys.

Fraziel1's picture

Bankers are scum but and I would love to see them hit with a transaction tax but Cameron is right to say no. There is no way we should be giving any more powers to europe.

SiDevilIam's picture

My dear Rafael Behr,

I am Sid Harth.

You deserve a some kind of medal from the Queen Elizabeth. Since I am kind of rusty on this matter, I have to dust off my ancient British Raj high school textbooks, wherein, during Mahatma Gandhi's "Swadeshi," non violent movement inspired a whole lot of us kids in our teens, making us to attache beards and other facial features to Queen Victoria's portraits. I am sure, you wouldn't tell my Mom about this sacrilege to the memory of British India's crown.

Out of the acronymnal soup, I found some honors.

GCVO,
KCVO/DCVO,
CVO,
LVO,
MVO

Take your pick and I shall, personally vouch for the massive propaganda, letter writing, facebook, Twitter and other popular social media pages campaigns to get you one.

...and I am Sid Harth@arabuhuru.org

Lady J's picture

Dodgy Dave has outed the Tories.

Who are the Tories looking out for, no matter how much it damages our national interest;

THE THIEVES, SORRY I MEANT THE BANKERS.

Reginald-Fah-fah's picture

Merkozy is going waste their money!!!

Prime Minsiter David Cameron is the greatest statesman in the world!!!

Lady J's picture

Gas
We will be bailing out the Eurozone anyway, through our contribution to IMF, recently increased by 40%.

And guess what the mafia in the city will still be taxed because they trade globally.

What angers me is that Dodgy, did not even try and use the negotiating tools at his disposal. He was so focused at saving the Wankers, sorry a mis-spelling but I will not correct it; he immediately went into flashman mode and refused to support the treaty instead of continuing his negotiations in a matured manner.

Lady J's picture

The French media are celebrating the fact that the EU have been able to cut Britain loose.

Put aside your ideology on Europe, we have already lost economic influence in the world believe me, this is the beginning of the end.

Ian5's picture

If Cameron had suggested a tax based on per bottle or per bottle equivilent of wine exports , would France and Germany jumped in? A financial services tax not applied world wide is against our national intrest. These countries do not have the volume of trades passing though London.

Ian5's picture

Let tax wine exports on a bottle or per bottle basis, oh no, the french and germans would not like it..their wine industries are already under pressure from outside the EU......

Joe Swann's picture

@Lady J, 14.10. At what point does common sense kick in and this banker bashing business end? In 2010 the financial sector is estimated to have contributed 11.6% of total UK tax receipts. Are they thieves any more than the IT services charging the government billions of dollars for an incomplete project? Or the military contractors billing the state billions for an undelivered aircraft carrier? Or the thousands of people stealing billions in fraudulent benefit claims? Or the millions of households across the developed world whose irresponsible borrowing triggered the last recession? The OPEC nations sat at a desk deciding world energy prices, or the Russian billionaires deciding how much gas to send to Europe to fund their next superyatch? The panicky investors whose fright has led to debt prices rocketing around the world, causing governments to slash spending and cut millions of jobs? Or the UK consumers happy to spend borrowed money buying consumer products manufactured in the far East by exploited workers? I'm not a banker but its irritating for every discussion to be distracted that pointless train of thought.

Mel Davis's picture

My goodness didn't our Dave put up a robust fight to safeguard his rich banker mates? He's done us Brits proud

lily's picture

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Foulenough's picture

Yet another indicator of the fact that we have a PM who has
no real political principles, commitment or beliefs whatsoever;
a worryingly incomplete understanding of the (admittedly many)issues with which he has to deal; no real idea as to the kind of country he wants to govern, beyond some half-cooked big society bobbins; and an extremely limited desire to participate in genuine politics, both domestically and abroad.
He is man who has yet to demonstrate any practical reasons as to why he wanted to be PM in the first place, beyond as some kind of lifestyle choice.
He is demonstrably out of his depth economically and politically and seems to be driven primarily by a desire to say the first thing that comes into his head that he believes will help him curry favour with whatever audience is before him at the moment, regardless of coherence, plausibility and consistency.

But his reverse duck's arse quiff and Liberace slap make him look nice on the telly.

BritishCitizen's picture

I think many people have missed the point about the position in which we find ourselves. As far as the EU is concerned, Britain is an irrelevance. We flatter ourselves that we are any more than that to Europe. Our financial contributions have been welcome to help with their expansion, but that's all.

Whatever Cameron does now will make no difference to the Germans, but may affect in some small way how badly we come out of it all. His posturing about protecting British interests and sovereignty is farcical. What 'sovereignty'? We are at the economic mercy of the Germans and, more importantly, the very financial markets that we have fostered over the past 25 years.

As for the 'Eurozone crisis', the Germans are not stupid. They knew all along that these smaller nations wouldn't have any proper fiscal discipline and they allowed it to happen so they could assume complete control of the EU sooner or later.
They also knew that Britain would never play ball. It's in our DNA.

Europe was always going to belong to the Germans, no matter how important the French think they are or how much it was dressed up as a 'union'. The best that we can hope for is that Germany doesn't go for the kill and decide to completely destroy the British economy. Now that we are well and truly out of the loop, the 26 EU nations can put up all kind of trade and other restrictions for the UK. If you think the Eurovision Song Contest is rigged these days, you haven't seen anything yet.

Frankfurt will soon replace London as the hub of European financial transactions and many of the institutional players in London will relocate. The way America is going, Germany may well control all Western money markets within a few years.

If we're not prepared to embrace Europe and the Euro, which of course (foolishly) we shall never do, the best we can hope for is to negotiate a dignified and diplomatic withdrawal from Europe without upsetting anyone.

Eddy S's picture

The eurozone still has major issues to deal with like italy's 2 trillion of debt, greece, spain and portugal. none of those problems will really be addressed with the new changes - let's see what happens in 6 months and then speak.

Fergus Pickering's picture

No, my old beauty, I am a man that can do accents. It's called having an ear. I can speak French and Latin too. This is a talented man. But a chameleon? No,no, I have been conservative since Mrs Thatcher swept to power. That's a whole lotta years.

C Baker's picture

The 26 eurozone members can now pull together and sort out the euro currency issue. They can do this without interference from Britain. We are not needed, as the Sarkozy has often said. It is obvious 26 countries should be able to sort this out, without us. Ireland seem happy enough with the deal, so they will keep the euro and submit future budgets to Germany and the EU. If Merkel or Sarkozy are not reelected, then the 26 eurozone countries can deal with the new French and German leaders, be they left or right wing. I think Britain now needs to keep good diplomatic relations, but let the eurozone seek it's own solution. We are maybe too keen on democracy and local representaion in Britain, but it seems a simpler solution for now, rather than a federal europe.

Anthony's picture

Arrrrr poor little Europeans are up set that we didn't surrender more sovereignty .

Good point Ryan, that's because the true Finns party have a big influence with over 20% of the national vote and they are Euro sceptic, don't forget Wilder's Freedom party in the Netherlands they are euro sceptic too. This drama has along way to run yet.

Forget all the little europeans there is a big wide world out there !!!

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