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Somalia: what is to be done?

The west must act carefully to stabilise the world's most failed state.

By Nicky Woolf Published 27 November 2011 11:32

^{African Union soldiers fire off during heavy firefight with Al-Shabaab militants in May}
^{Source: Getty Images}

Somalia is a failed state, probably the most failed state in the world. While Somaliland and autonomous Puntland in the north maintain their own order, the south of the country has had no rule of law to speak of since the collapse of central government in 1991. Into that vacuum, an Islamist youth movement called Al-Shabaab has exploded, promising much-needed order but delivering only violence, repression and a particularly repellent form of Sharia law.

Al-Shabaab's edicts are as capricious as those of any psychopath autocrat. At the height of the famine in July they outlawed the eating of samosas because their tri-cornered shape reminded them of the Christian holy trinity. Bras are considered an offence to Allah. So is football.

More seriously, they turned this year's drought into one of the worst famines East Africa has seen, pushing hundreds of thousands to the point of starvation by closing roads and denying foreign aid teams access to territory under their control - the vast majority of the country.

Ahmen Abdi Godane, one of the founders of Al-Shabaab in 2006 and its de facto leader, has led them away from the nationalist promises on which they gained territorial control and towards what he sees as a global jihad. He cares nothing for his people, just his holy war.

Piracy is a symptom of desperation, not necessarily directly linked to Al-Shabaab; though much of the proceeds from this theft and kidnapping operation, a matter of hundreds of millions of dollars every year, will most likely find its way into their coffers. Like terrorism and fundamentalism, it has thrived on the chaos that engulfs the nation and, in the Gulf of Aden, we are spending vast sums on a losing battle. The EU's Operation Atlanta, the joint task force and NATO missions cost two billion dollers every year, and a December 2010 study by the think tank One Earth Future estimated the total economic cost of piracy at between seven and twelve billion dollars per year.

Kenya and Ethiopia, neighbours to the west and north of Shabaab-controlled territory, the victims, as well as Uganda, of numerous suicide and car bomb attacks, have had enough. 2,000 Kenyan soldiers are pushing north into Shabaab-controlled territory, fighting alongside Somali militias loyal to the struggling transitional government in Mogadishu. Ethiopia announced last week that it would deploy troops to assist the Kenyan mission.

But Ethiopia and Kenya's aims are mixed, their public divided, their resources limited. If Al-Shabaab is truly to be toppled, as it must be, the west needs to lend serious and careful assistance. Post-famine, support for Al-Shabaab is at a low ebb: they are vulnerable to pressure especially if humanitarian aid is coming too. The hearts and minds - and more importantly, the stomachs - of the Somali people have no instinctive loyalty to brutal fundamentalism and jihad. They want food, and safety.

But the consequences of a brief, abortive badly-funded revenge mission by Kenya and Ethiopia into Shabaab territory are not pleasant: large civilian casualties, leading to a consolidation of power for the terrorist insurgency, as was seen in Iraq. This situation must be avoided.

Instead, the EU and the US should offer logistical, consultative and financial help to the Kenyan and Ethiopian forces, and the struggling transitional Somali forces, as the US already is with the African Union mission in Mogadishu.

These things must be done carefully. Western financial backing can set up the government as a lucrative prize for the corrupt, and a revenge-led military intervention which sees civilians dead, raped or mutilated will drive people straight into the arms of terrorist recruiters.

But if the west is unwilling to invest in helping stabilise Somalia so that some sort of peace, stability, even democracy can grow, we will come to keenly regret it in the long run.

Nicky Woolf is a freelance journalist writing on politics and world affairs. He tweets at @NickyWoolf.

Tags: Somalia terrorism

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14 comments

Sun, 2011-11-27 21:37 — Fergus Pickering (not verified)

I think doing nothing at all is the way to go.

Mon, 2011-11-28 00:59 — sahra (not verified)

To say such thing that Kenya, Ethiopia and Uganda to be the victims is joke the real victim is Somali people and their country, as obviously it has become of something to make money out of.$1000000, 00000 for killing and doing nothing and those countries are just milking it. JOKE

Mon, 2011-11-28 10:13 — Dave (not verified)

It's a complete mess, the best thing that can be done is to recognise Somaliland and Puntland as independent sovereign nations, and that immediately gives those stable areas both a boost.

With regards to the remaining part of Somalia, i'm not sure what can be done, apart from Western Navies sinking pirates. We don't need or want another long drawn out Afghanistan.

Mon, 2011-11-28 10:31 — swatantra

The deliberate mistake is in the title ie 'The West ... etc...'
Let it be Africa's problem for stable African Nations, supported by the UN, to solve. When are they going to take some responsibility.
What happens in neighbouring troublespots, directly impinges on their fragile democracies. Lets have a Pan African Congress to sort out Somalia Congo and Ivory Coast for once and for all.

Wed, 2011-11-30 03:42 — Adam99 (not verified)

America and EU must not ignore or deny to let proven facts or realities on the ground change their approach or thinking toward Somalia.America and the EU strategies of relying heavily on Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya to stabilize Somalia, while in reality these frontline countries are the ones who are actually perpetuating and benefiting Somali conflict for the last two decades and clearly created the environment in which Al-Qaeda ideology flourish today.

What is missing the debate of how to stabilize Somalia is the urgent need address the long term needs of the Somali people and finding an organic, genuine and sustainable political solution for the Somalia’s recurring disasters and chronic instability, which would ultimately give better option for the Al-Qaeda infected population in Somalia

I believe it is time President Barack Obama how some leadership and order the State Department to come out new Somali strategy approach, which reflects the reality on ground in Somalia, given the recurring disaster humanitarian disaster and the chronic instability in Somalia. US current strategy toward Somalia of concentrating mainly in Mogadishu----the ground zero of the failed of Somalia has been abject failure.

Wed, 2011-11-30 03:49 — Adam99 (not verified)

America with the help of African proxy troops alone would not accomplish dismantling or defeating Al-Qaeda ideology in the Horn of Africa. US would need to shore up the support of genuine Somali clan and political leaders who choose the path of reconciliation, peace and democracy and realized that their own long term interest lays in eradicating the radical forces. US is either ignoring or neglecting to find a Somali solution for Al-Qaeda ideology. Most Somalis practice moderate form of Islam.

For example, Somaliland, the northern territory of Somalia is peaceful, democratic functioning entity--with political institutions that are organic---having built by the indigenous clans rather than imposed by the United Nations or donor nations. . With all these achievement, Somaliland deserved diplomatic recognition, but for political reasons, the Obama administration has refused to offer support and recognize a source of strength in the area—Somaliland, which stands for freedom and democracy .

Instead, America is expending vast resources and the African troops also scarifying their blood supporting a fictional Somali government, which has no popular support among ordinary Somali people, offers no governance, security or even reconciliation and is led by highly corrupted and ineffective leaders.

America and the west should use Somaliland's peace making model ,which proven to the rest of the world that Somalis have the ability to manage their own affairs--reconcile various clans, compromise and govern themselves-- with little or no outside help and use. Somaliland people took the path of democracy , the rule the law and good governance, which is the most effective weapon against extremism.

Mon, 2011-11-28 18:50 — Laura Payne (not verified)

The EU's Operation Atlanta simply cannot deliver an effective response to Somali piracy in the Indian Ocean. The sheer vastness of this stretch of water makes it almost impossible to police, and channelling ships through a narrow corridor simply makes them more vulnerable to attack. It doesn't help that EU ships currently respond under different rules of engagement - with some ratcheting up the pressure to a level beyond that which is manageable for others.

No, Somali pirates will not be beaten at sea. Rather, they must be countered on land - in Somalia, where the breakdown of the state allows them to operate with impunity. And they will have to be countered forcefully (by ground troops that represent much more than a small contingent of AU or UN peacekeepers) and carefully - with all the diplomatic nouse the international community can muster.

Not an easy - or popular - task, but nothing short of it will do if we are serious about protecting not only the Somali citizens currently starving but also the 90% of the world's commodities that still travel by sea.

The question is, after a decade which has seen interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan post-9/11, a year which birthed an Arab Spring and a Libyan war, and with the question of Iran's nuclear capabilities frazzling everyone's nerves, do we have the stomach for an intervention?

I suspect the answer is no.

Sun, 2011-11-27 11:46 — swatantra

A pity that nowhere in the article was the UN mentioned because really it has to be a UN matter. I would like to see the concept of UN Mandated Territories' brought back in to help the failing State learn some governace and help it towards independence, prpoerly this time not like last time. Of coursea regional solution is always the best solution, let the Africans take the responsibility of bringin order and peace back. Let Kenya and Ethiopia have the Mandate, once their invasion succeeds and they've demolished the Shabaab idealogues. But Kenya must have the backing and support of the UN.

Sun, 2011-11-27 11:55 — widdi (not verified)

send for tha Arab League and the west. Then again they are to busy gobbing off about syria at the moment.

Sun, 2011-11-27 15:42 — J Unit CYP UK

We must use any means neccesary to destroy Al Shaabab. They are a threat to national security. Those beasts must not come into our country.
1. Naval Blockade of Somalian coast
2. Deport all Somalian criminals from UK
3. Engage in legal covert operations to destroy Sl Shaabab in the UK
4. Use special forces to destroy Al Shabaab fighters and Imams
5. Give aid in the form of charity work, Liberal Islamic education and medication

Sun, 2011-11-27 17:20 — kenny jenkins (not verified)

Shouldn't somebody do something about Mr Small? He's obviously unwell.

Sun, 2011-11-27 17:22 — kenny jenkins (not verified)

Thank You

Sun, 2011-11-27 17:30 — 697mkzgmxhgh

don't worry keny, the left-wing censors on this blog, protect you, from reasoned and commonsense comments, from such as I, they have their own agenda, and as such, people like me, never get to say their piece about what is ACTUALLY GOING ON IN THE WIDER WORLD, than the semi-asylum that is England, TAKE NOTE, censor man, my e-mail is NOT UK, nor are all my information references.

Lennins Orwellian gang, had a simple philosophy, IF YOU TELL A LIE OFTEN ENOUGH IT BECOMES THE ''NEW-TRUTH'' Q.E.D

Sun, 2011-11-27 18:59 — 697mkzgmxhgh

I thought to re-visit nandanwar promotion of the much vaunted, and vastly corrupt UNITED NATIONS, (de-facto,any organization that has/had libya's gaddaffi as chairman of its HUMAN RIGHTS COMMITTEE is basically corrupt thru and thru so DO NOT USE THE UN, as any sort of arbiter of justice and good-conduct)

As a W.A.S.P, why would I believe a single word that nanadapoo writes.

He lives in, and comes from a land, where the mad-hatter gives the queen advice on social affairs. and the doormouse is the secretary of industry.

The sort of nonsense he writes, is the same as we have heard since 1950, when the WHITE-MAN LAID HIS BURDEN DOWN, and left the 3rd world to govern itself, AS THEIR VIOLENT BRUTAL LEADERS DEMANDED.

Well we have seen what situation has arisen in such as south africa, where johanasburge is THE RAPE CITY OF THE WORLD, where white females are routinely gang-raped by the bold-brave warriors for freedom of mandella's tribe (this was the subject of a CNN documentary 3 or 4 years ago,so don't deny my reportage)

this MANDELA REALITY IS NOT NOR WILL BE, REPORTED ON THE ETHNIC LOVING BBC.

who rarely even report the famine conditions in what was a 'food-exporting' of Rhodesia. since their favourite 'freedom-fighter' was promoted by the bbc into chief tyrant