Hollande wins

How centrist will the French Socialist candidate be?

The headline in this morning's Le Monde read: "Triomphe de la gauche réaliste" (Triumph of the realist left). That was how France's newspaper of record greeted François Hollande's victory over Martine Aubry in the second and decisive round of yesterday's socialist primary. Hollande won with nearly 57 per cent, on a turnout - remarkable for an election of this sort - of 2,860,000 (an increase of 8 per cent on the 2,661,231 who voted in the first round).

As for Hollande's "realism", it's certainly true that he tacked to the centre against Aubry and the left-wing Arnaud Montebourg in the campaign leading up to the first round of voting. And he belongs to a generation of Socialist politicians scarred by the electoral beating the Socialists took when François Mitterand's government turned to austerity early in 1983, abandoning the Keynesian economic activism of 110 Propositions pour la France, the programme on which Mitterand had run and won two years earlier.

Nevertheless, as I wrote last week, Hollande couldn't ignore the surge of enthusiasm for Montebourg, stoked by his fulminations against globalisation and his calls for much tighter state supervision of the banking sector. And indeed he didn't. Between the first and second rounds, Hollande made a number of public entreaties (especially on financial policy) to Montebourg and his supporters, most of whom would, it was assumed, vote for the more left-leaning Aubry second time around. It seems to have worked: last week, Montebourg endorsed Hollande as the candidate most able to build a winning coalition against Nicolas Sarkozy in next year's presidential election.

Hollande has said he won't throw himself into campaigning straight away. For one thing, the organisational apparatus of the PS, of which Aubry is first secretary, needs overhauling. Hollande's first act as presidential candidate is likely to be to attend today's commemoration of the 50th anniversary of the police massacre of Algerians demonstrating in Paris.

Jonathan Derbyshire is Managing Editor of Prospect. He was formerly Culture Editor of the New Statesman.

Getty
Show Hide image

Could Jeremy Corbyn still be excluded from the leadership race? The High Court will rule today

Labour donor Michael Foster has applied for a judgement. 

If you thought Labour's National Executive Committee's decision to let Jeremy Corbyn automatically run again for leader was the end of it, think again. 

Today, the High Court will decide whether the NEC made the right judgement - or if Corbyn should have been forced to seek nominations from 51 MPs, which would effectively block him from the ballot.

The legal challenge is brought by Michael Foster, a Labour donor and former parliamentary candidate. Corbyn is listed as one of the defendants.

Before the NEC decision, both Corbyn's team and the rebel MPs sought legal advice.

Foster has maintained he is simply seeking the views of experts. 

Nevertheless, he has clashed with Corbyn before. He heckled the Labour leader, whose party has been racked with anti-Semitism scandals, at a Labour Friends of Israel event in September 2015, where he demanded: "Say the word Israel."

But should the judge decide in favour of Foster, would the Labour leadership challenge really be over?

Dr Peter Catterall, a reader in history at Westminster University and a specialist in opposition studies, doesn't think so. He said: "The Labour party is a private institution, so unless they are actually breaking the law, it seems to me it is about how you interpret the rules of the party."

Corbyn's bid to be personally mentioned on the ballot paper was a smart move, he said, and the High Court's decision is unlikely to heal wounds.

 "You have to ask yourself, what is the point of doing this? What does success look like?" he said. "Will it simply reinforce the idea that Mr Corbyn is being made a martyr by people who are out to get him?"