Who does David Cameron fear more, the Lib Dems or Ukip?

The PM is using coalition as an excuse not to be more bellicose in Brussels. It could backfire

Nick Clegg has sprinkled adose of salt into the prime minister's European wounds this morning. The deputy prime minister has written an article in the Observer insisting that the coalition will be "measured" in its approach to any proposed changes to Brussels institutions and warns that "retreating to the margins" of Europe would be "economic suicide".

David Cameron, meanwhile, has told the BBC's Andrew Marr that he would like to see further "rebalancing" of powers with regard to Brussels, but recognises that the Conservatives must act as a coalition - an unveiled hint that it is only the Lib Dems that stop him from giving full rein to his own more Eurosceptic impulses. It is obvious why he would want to present that argument - persuading Tory back benchers that his hands are tied with yellow Lib Dem cord. I'm not sure it will do him much good. The Conservative hard core anti-EU faction know perfectly well that the Lib Dems are an impediment to their ambitions and see Cameron's deference tothem as weakness. Hearing the prime minister advertise that problem will hardly placate them.

Part of Cameron's problem here is that he is trapped in an inherently dishonest position. He probably would like the UK one day to have a different relationship with Brussels, but recognises it is impractical - politically and diplomatically - to demand one now. He would almost certainly have come to the same conclusion if he had a majority in parliament. There are, in government, simply better things to be getting on with, especially in an economic crisis. So Cameron will not march into the European Council swinging a Thatcheresque man-bag demanding more control of employment rights legislation or anything else - and not because the LibDems won't allow it, but because it is not a priority for him. The back benchers know it, so there is very little the PM can say that will satisfy them.

One factor that could really change the dynamic is the performance of Ukip - or rather, Nigel Farage's party's anticipated performance in 2014 European elections. Ukip has already beaten the Lib Dems in a couple of by-elections and is a natural repository for disgruntled Tory protest votes. One poll out today puts Ukip within easy striking distance of the Lib Dems nationally. Conservative strategists are, apparently, very worried about what that might mean for a poll that is due just a year before the next general election. It is feasible to imagine that, come 2014, Cameron will be more afraid of Farage's populist, nationalist agitation beyond the gates of his coalition than Clegg's cosmopolitan Europhile hand-wringing within.

 

Rafael Behr is political columnist at the Guardian and former political editor of the New Statesman

Ukip's Nigel Farage and Paul Nuttall. Photo: Getty
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Is the general election 2017 the end of Ukip?

Ukip led the way to Brexit, but now the party is on less than 10 per cent in the polls. 

Ukip could be finished. Ukip has only ever had two MPs, but it held an outside influence on politics: without it, we’d probably never have had the EU referendum. But Brexit has turned Ukip into a single-issue party without an issue. Ukip’s sole remaining MP, Douglas Carswell, left the party in March 2017, and told Sky News’ Adam Boulton that there was “no point” to the party anymore. 

Not everyone in Ukip has given up, though: Nigel Farage told Peston on Sunday that Ukip “will survive”, and current leader Paul Nuttall will be contesting a seat this year. But Ukip is standing in fewer constituencies than last time thanks to a shortage of both money and people. Who benefits if Ukip is finished? It’s likely to be the Tories. 

Is Ukip finished? 

What are Ukip's poll ratings?

Ukip’s poll ratings peaked in June 2016 at 16 per cent. Since the leave campaign’s success, that has steadily declined so that Ukip is going into the 2017 general election on 4 per cent, according to the latest polls. If the polls can be trusted, that’s a serious collapse.

Can Ukip get anymore MPs?

In the 2015 general election Ukip contested nearly every seat and got 13 per cent of the vote, making it the third biggest party (although is only returned one MP). Now Ukip is reportedly struggling to find candidates and could stand in as few as 100 seats. Ukip leader Paul Nuttall will stand in Boston and Skegness, but both ex-leader Nigel Farage and donor Arron Banks have ruled themselves out of running this time.

How many members does Ukip have?

Ukip’s membership declined from 45,994 at the 2015 general election to 39,000 in 2016. That’s a worrying sign for any political party, which relies on grassroots memberships to put in the campaigning legwork.

What does Ukip's decline mean for Labour and the Conservatives? 

The rise of Ukip took votes from both the Conservatives and Labour, with a nationalist message that appealed to disaffected voters from both right and left. But the decline of Ukip only seems to be helping the Conservatives. Stephen Bush has written about how in Wales voting Ukip seems to have been a gateway drug for traditional Labour voters who are now backing the mainstream right; so the voters Ukip took from the Conservatives are reverting to the Conservatives, and the ones they took from Labour are transferring to the Conservatives too.

Ukip might be finished as an electoral force, but its influence on the rest of British politics will be felt for many years yet. 

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