Cable warns of trouble ahead

Business Secretary refuses to rule out possibility of a double-dip recession.

A year on from the Spending Review, the coalition's soothsayer has emerged to offer another gloomy economic prognosis. Asked by ITV News whether he could promise that there wouldn't be a double-dip recession, Vince Cable replied: "I can't do that. We know conditions are very difficult but the government is doing the best it can to protect people." The Business Secretary spoke only of the "possibility" (hastily adding, "well indeed the certainty") that the coalition would turn things round.

It's not the first time that Cable has warned of a double-dip. In an interview with the Guardian's Decca Aitkenhead last August, he noted that the government's forecasts put the risk of a double-dip "at something like one in four, one in five" but he would only say "well below 50-50" (a figure that sounded rather higher than one in five). Then there was his interview with NS editor Jason Cowley, in which he spoke of the danger of another "financial bomb" going off.

As ever, there is something admirable about the Business Secretary's economic realism. But it prompts the question: what is he going to do about it? In some ways, the government has already adopted a plan B in the form of credit easing, accelerated deregulation and more QE by the Bank of England (described by George Osborne in 2009 as "the last resort of desperate governments when all other policies have failed"). The question remains whether it will change course again by temporarily slowing the cuts or offering further fiscal stimulus (a plan C, if you like). For now, there is no sign of that. But Osborne's Damascene conversion to quantitative easing is a reminder of how even this most stubborn of Chancellors can change his mind.

Announcing a second round of QE earlier this month, Bank of England governor Mervyn King remarked "When the world changes, we change our policy response." Cable's pessimism will only increase the pressure on Osborne to change his.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Quiz: Can you identify fake news?

The furore around "fake" news shows no sign of abating. Can you spot what's real and what's not?

Hillary Clinton has spoken out today to warn about the fake news epidemic sweeping the world. Clinton went as far as to say that "lives are at risk" from fake news, the day after Pope Francis compared reading fake news to eating poop. (Side note: with real news like that, who needs the fake stuff?)

The sweeping distrust in fake news has caused some confusion, however, as many are unsure about how to actually tell the reals and the fakes apart. Short from seeing whether the logo will scratch off and asking the man from the market where he got it from, how can you really identify fake news? Take our test to see whether you have all the answers.

 

 

In all seriousness, many claim that identifying fake news is a simple matter of checking the source and disbelieving anything "too good to be true". Unfortunately, however, fake news outlets post real stories too, and real news outlets often slip up and publish the fakes. Use fact-checking websites like Snopes to really get to the bottom of a story, and always do a quick Google before you share anything. 

Amelia Tait is a technology and digital culture writer at the New Statesman.