The coalition that never was
"Confidence and supply" in May 2010 could have led to a Lib-Lab government.
By David Mills Published 21 October 2011 15:00
On the afternoon of Wednesday 23 May 2011, the new Prime Minister David Miliband sat in his office in Number Ten. He was still slightly stunned at how quickly he had gone from being an out-of-favour Foreign Secretary to Prime Minister, with a record-breakingly short stint as Leader of the Opposition in between.
Sure, he'd had to endure some cracks from the new Business Secretary Ed Balls about "caving in to Clegg", but after seeing the Lib Dem leader walk away from coalition talks with David Cameron a year before, he had been determined to conclude a deal that would last. Offering Vince Cable the position of Chancellor was a no-brainer, as was appointing the popular former-Treasury minister John Healey as his Labour "minder" in the role of Chief Secretary. Reworking the spending review in a way which reassured the markets but put greater emphasis on growth and protected more public services was not going to be an easy task. At least they now had the reasonable expectation of four years in government to get the job done.
Nick Clegg had accepted the post of Deputy Prime Minister with a brief to run the coalition's constitutional reform programme -- including a two-stage referendum on whether to keep First-Past-The-Post -- and then a referendum between AV and PR to follow, if it was rejected, an innovation from New Zealand. This was what had clinched the coalition deal for Clegg: Miliband was simply able to go one better than Cameron had a year before, and offer the Lib Dems a shot at their Holy Grail -- PR for Westminster elections. Of course, some resistance to electoral reform persisted among Labour MPs, and the party in the country, but Miliband reckoned that, for most of them, the chance to destroy the Tories would be too good to pass up. Both party leaders were relaxed about winning the first round against what they hoped would be a demoralised Tory-led "Keep FPTP campaign" and a broad coalition of reformers comprising both government parties.
Elsewhere, Paddy Ashdown became Defence Secretary in the Lords, David Laws took Education -- a major spending department, seen as one of the biggest prizes in the coalition deal. Chris Huhne went to Energy, Simon Hughes became Transport Secretary, Sarah Teather went to Culture and Danny Alexander to Scotland. Alistair Darling had graciously agreed to become Foreign Secretary -- a move he had resisted when Gordon Brown had tried it two years before. With Ed Balls at Business, Jim Murphy at the Home Office, Douglas Alexander at Work and Pensions, Yvette Cooper at Local Government, Liam Byrne at Health and Andy Burnham as Party Chair, no one could accuse his government of lacking experience or weight.
The new Prime Minister had more than enough proper work to get on with, but his mind drifted to the more personal task at hand: organising a stag party for his brother Ed, now Environment Secretary. That awkward period when they had both challenged for the party leadership was long behind them -- and fortunately David's victory, while clear, had been close enough to enable both brothers to emerge with pride and mutual respect intact.
A few hundred yards away, Nick Clegg was being applauded into work by staff at the Cabinet Office. It had been quite a day for ovations. Earlier, he'd been carried into Cowley Street by a crowd of activists and welcomed by party grandees including Ming Campbell, Simon Hughes, Charles Kennedy and Shirley Williams. With Liberal Democrat red-lines on student funding written into the Lib-Lab Coalition agreement and the real prospect of getting PR, or at least AV, Clegg was the toast of both his party and the media for the masterful way in which he had played a difficult hand over the previous twelve months. Someone asked him to sign the cover of that week's Economist, which depicted Clegg as a puppeteer, pulling David Miliband's strings, with the headline: "The Masterful Mr Clegg".
Later, sitting behind his new desk, Clegg mused on how tempting it had been to go into government with the Tories in 2010. There had been good arguments either way, and his top team had gone backwards and forwards on it. But the deal just didn't feel right, and, as one of his savvier aides had said to him after he'd finished the last, difficult conversation with a crestfallen Cameron: "Look, it's been 70 years -- we didn't wait this long to make a bad deal. Our time will come sooner than you think." And so it had. Nick Clegg's decision to reject David Cameron's "big, open, comprehensive offer" back in May 2010 had been vindicated.
Meanwhile, the Tory leader sat alone in the kitchen of his Notting Hill home, surrounded by unpacked boxes. Tomorrow, he had to meet the executive of the 1922 Committee, chaired by the Altrincham and Sale West MP Graham Brady, and he was not looking forward to it.
David Mills was a Labour special adviser in government and opposition from 2009-2010. His new book of political counterfactuals, "Prime Minister Boris and other things that never happened", outlines how opting for "confidence and supply" with the Tories in May 2010 could have led to a very different future.
He tweets as @davidmills73
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17 comments
What a load of bollox.
Labour were FOR raising fees. They were for the unamended implementation of the Browne Report. Gordon Brown was not willing to concede even the right to abstain on the vote, never mind the complete overhaul of the system into what is essentially now a graduate tax.
Like many Lib Dems, I think this would be my ideal scenario short of a Lib Dem-led government, but that's all it is; a dream. It's based on someone's fantasy idea of what the Labour Party is and how it behaves; a moderate left-wing party, not the Blairite death cult that has been in it's place for the best part of twenty years now.
Crap...did someone get paid?
I would prefer to see NS to stick to reporting and analysing the facts, rather than waste time with pointless, speculative fantasy.
this reads more like a lefties wet dream. T'was never going to happen. forget it.
Why would Danny Alexander go to the Scotland Office? you would have to put a Labour person in the Scotland Office.
Reason why Scotland Office is LibDem at the moment is because the LibDems won more votes than the Tories in the GE & have 11 seats opposed to the Tories 1 seat.
With Labour it would be the other way round.
Counterfactual history is anything but pointless, speculative fantasy.
I found it a very enjoyable read. It's shame that it is 'counterfactual' history, and not just... Well, history.
Wish it were true instead of the shower government we have know.
David Mills
"In the full piece, I set out how I think that the Lib Dems could have got something through without being as thoroughly tarnished as they have been by being in Cabinet.
As Peter Snow used to say: 'it's just a bit of fun'."
I don't think that's its realistic but fair enough.
"I think you're right re the supposed treason - but, naturally, Labour wants to take as many votes from disaffected Lib Dems as possible."
I suspect this appeals most to existing Labour supporters and not disaffected Lib Dems.
"If they are kingmakers, best that they are weak ones."
One of the ironies of the 2015 election is that whoever wins, the Lib Dems will lose - and yet the rump Lib Dems will probably be the kingmakers (hence more powerful than they were in 2010). If Labour wants a Lib-Lab pact to be possible it needs to make sure the arithmetic works - and that means attacking the Tories not the Lib Dems.
Very enjoyable David, but I'm afraid like your colleague Mehdi you still seem to be interminably frustrated by the realities of bourgeois mathematics! I also fail to see Balls playing Ball, not to mention the likes of Tom Harris, Blunkett, Reid...
Can't wait until part two. It can't be too long, like all good fan fiction, before we get to the slash stuff between Nick and D Milliband...
what the?... you forgot to mention...
David Milliband and co. sit around the table pondering what the hell they are going to do with the economy. How about borrowing more money, hiking up taxes, cutting spending and reform public services... oh hang on that's what happening now..
my point?... no government would be able to escape the crisis and the measures to survive would be similar.
Wake-up and smell the coffee and stop writing crap like this!
Utterly pointless article, and thank f*** it did not happen.
the only interesting thing would have been a referendum on pr
The trouble with this is "how". Labour and Lib Dem MPs in 2010 couldn't muster enough votes to pass a budget - it wouldn't be confidence and supply.
Confidence and supply with the Tories would have meant taking the flak without any Lib Dem policies getting in or a snap election only the Tories could afford to fight.
Labour need to stop thinking about the supposed treason of the Lib Dems and think about how they want to work with the Lib Dems after 2015. Though its true that the Lib Dems will "lose" the 2015 election there is a good chance that a depleted Lib Dem party may actually be kingmakers due to their being another hung parliament!
FA - the initial standfirst was wrong - the full piece is about what would have happened if Clegg had opted for confidence and supply with the Tories in 2010, rather than full coalition.
In the full piece, I set out how I think that the Lib Dems could have got something through without being as thoroughly tarnished as they have been by being in Cabinet.
As Peter Snow used to say: 'it's just a bit of fun'.
I think you're right re the supposed treason - but, naturally, Labour wants to take as many votes from disaffected Lib Dems as possible. If they are kingmakers, best that they are weak ones.
Don't forget how narrowly the Referendum bill passed through the Commons when Tories were whipped to vote for it and Labour voted against. Can you imagine if the Tories were voting against and Labour were whipped to vote for it? Not a snowball's chance in hell. Otherwise, jolly good read and, perhaps, something of a taste of what's to come in 2015 or 2020?
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