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Preview: Dear Mr Osborne, Here's your Plan B

World leading economists present the Chancellor with alternatives to austerity.

In this week's magazine, nine of the world's leading economists -- including a Nobel prize winner, one of the Chancellor's own advisers and three former members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) -- write open letters to the Chancellor, George Osborne, urging him to adopt alternative and radical policies to stimulate growth and create jobs.

 

Christopher Pissarides: Cut VAT back to 17.5 per cent

Professor Christopher Pissarides holds the Norman Sosnow Chair in Economics at the LSE and in 2010 was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics. Writing exclusively for the New Statesman, he tells the Chancellor: "I know you worry about the deficit but I think that you worry about it too much. . . The markets are clearly telling us that you are too worried about the deficit". Pissarides accuses Osborne of being "inflexible" and says the cuts could "slow down the recovery and may even cause a double-dip recession". In his letter to the Chancellor, the Nobel laureate explains the need for a fiscal stimulus to boost employment:

I don't think reducing the top income tax from 50p to 40p in the pound will create many more jobs . . . Cutting VAT back to 17.5 per cent, or reducing National Insurance contributions for those on low incomes, will revive job creation and reduce unemployment. Deficit reduction is best done with spending cuts when the economy is recovering, not with higher taxes in a downturn. There is enough time in the life of this parliament to achieve your deficit-reduction objective with a policy that is friendlier to job creation.

 

Sushil Wadhwani: print money for the public

Economist Sushil Wadhwani, a member of the Bank of England's MPC from 1999 to 2002 and founder/chief executive of Wadhwani Asset Management, outlines his own radical proposal for stimulating consumption and growth, following the latest round of quantitative easing. He tells George Osborne:

We need to ensure the extra money leads to higher demand. One good place to start is with the textbook example of printing money to finance consumption - sending every adult in the country a voucher that can be spent in the next three months. Allocating £300 to each of Britain's 50m adults to spend on goods and services would cost £15bn, or 20 per cent of the £75bn created by the new round of QE. (In 1999, the Japanese government distributed $175 vouchers to the public - 99.6 per cent of them were spent within the six-month limit.) Perhaps you can persuade the MPC that this is preferable to buying gilts?

 

Jeffrey Sachs: agree financial transaction tax

Professor Jeffrey Sachs, a personal adviser to George Osborne on development issues, and director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University, urges the Chancellor to reverse his stance on a Financial Transaction Tax and raise more revenue from the banking sector:

I am strongly supporting the call for a Financial Transactions Tax, or FTT, which I believe would add efficiency to the global financial system by reducing destabilising speculation.

Sachs appeals to the Chancellor to play a leadership role on the FTT, urging:

Please do use your global influence within the G20 and bilaterally to ensure that the US signs up to the FTT . . . Even if the US does not, I would hope that the UK and all of the European Union would agree to such a tax.

 

David Blanchflower: reduce NI contributions

Warning of a future "lost generation" as the number of unemployed young people nears a million, the New Statesman's economics editor, former MPC member and professor of economics at Dartmouth, David Blanchflower, tells the Chancellor:

I suggest you increase the number of university places by 100,000 at once - the universities have a capacity. You could even insist that the extra places be primarily in science and engineering, which would help future growth. Second, give a tax holiday for two years on employer and employee National Insurance contributions for anyone under the age of 25.

 

Robert Skidelsky: Start a national investment bank
Skidesly, emeritus profess of political economy at the University of Warwick and biographer of Keynes, dismisses the paltry funds allocated to the government's new Green Bank, telling the Chancellor:

"We need a proper national investment bank, with more capital and the ability to raise private money . . . You should use part of the proceeds of the sale of government shared in bailed-out banks to increase the capitalisation of the national investment bank."

 

Jonathan Portes: Lift the cap on immigration
Portes, the former chief economist at the Cabinet Office and director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, states:

"There is a simple way the government could boost growth not just in the short term but over the medium to long term, too, while reducing the deficit. That is to reverse the damaging restrictions the government has introduced on skilled immigrants and students from outside the European Union."

 

Ann Pettifor: Launch a green new deal
Pettifor, the co-founder and director of the think tank Prime (Policy Research in Macroeconomics), and one of the few economists to have predicted the crash, calls on the Chancellor to ditch austerity, and instead tackle the threat to Britain's economy and environment:

"We need public works programmes that will mobilise a "carbon army" of "green-collar workers" and offer major incentive to environmentally friendly businesses."

 

George Magnus: Lend directly to small businesses
Magnus, the senior economic adviser to UBS Investment Bank, reminds Osborne that "extraordinary times call for comparable economic thinking", proposing that:

"The Bank of England could get involved in direct lending to SMEs and to the government, so that the latter could fund infrastructure and other programmes to boost employment."

 

Chrostopher Allsop: Set up a recovery fund
Allsop, the Oxford professor of economics and a member of the Monetary Policy Committee between 2000 and 2003, tells the Chancellor that "the only lever left is fiscal policy":

"My preference would be public investment for infrastructure, which is sorely needed and could be financed, currently, at negative real interest rates. How about a recovery fund, financed by index-linked gilts?"

 

34 comments

VeeTee's picture

Reading advices from such illustrious company, the question in my mind is how we, as a nation, got to this point? Without understanding this, it seems improbable to derive a solution. Maxing out the nations credit card over the last 50 years would indicate a level of social irresponsibility on the part of successive governments and their illustious advisers. People getting used to less, starting with the non-wealth creating public sector, is inevitable and shame on those who would invite social unrest by delaying implementation thereof.

Lorenzo Cosco's picture

If the Great and Good at the top of this blog can't agree and there's no consensus from us plebs in this section, maybe there is no actual solution.

We're all doomed.

Arturo Bandini's picture

Mike Cobley - I understand this, indeed I thought that was implicit in my first sentence. Gideon is certainly fooling no-one with his TINA-inspired "all in this together" claptrap. Secondary to that, I was also trying to point of the popular fallacy that Mr Punchable Face is some sort of political genius.

Indu Pendent's picture

@PositivePete

Watched the video. Basically it says cut off the money supply to the high street banks and the debt magically disappears (which a big piece missing about how that happens). Brilliant.

(But it might ender the assets held by the banks worthless as there will only be state controlled money to repay them).

He's one for you to study who have similar economic plans:

video.google.com/videoplay?docid=9008719207533458404

Indu Pendent's picture

@Daniel

"the rich get richer while us poor people suffer as we must. "

You summarise the reality of what the last government and Ed Balls did.

Luddite is right.

Extranea's picture

Like a ship navigating iceberg ridden seas, the coalition has chosen to decide on the speed and course of the ship, without taking into account the changing conditions of the journey. Simply a recipe for disaster. They say there is no alternative simply because they don't want one.

http://bit.ly/mYKIHA

Mark's picture

Increase Uni places by 100,000?????

Oh for the love of God...!!

Have you tried getting a graduate job recently? Try adding another 100,000 to the pool.

Let's just put everyone in Uni, who cares it will help the unemployment figures and sod where the money comes from it's not like 100,000 more places will have any impact on budgets.

ang's picture

Dear Mr Osborne. Plan B. Go kill yourself.

John Harris's picture

He should
1. End fractional Reserve banking.
2. The MPC will create the money supply.This will be new money not debt.
3. Government will spend the new money into the economy.

The result will be.
1. Overall debt will be reduced.
2. The government will direct where money goes in the economy not the banks.

For more information see the Positive Money web site.

Red Shift's picture

'Makes people cheaper to employ?'

What kind of expression is that? Indu Pendant?

The wages of the lower paid don't cover housing and utility costs as it is!

I doubt if higher paid professionals would accept being made cheaper and take cuts in their salaries.

You cannot separate out fiscal policy from social/labour policies. We need to be training our own skilled scientists for the future and not relying on the cheaper labour, whose training costs have been covered elsewhere to fill vacancies.

We have increasing numbers of graduates doing nothing.

Why do people like you pass so much diarrhea?

Indu Pendent's picture

@mike cobley

The "visceral hatred" going around is the Labour project's envious hatred of "grubby" UK Industry borne out by their oppressive policies and approach to UK makers over a long period. Disagree? Where are all the examples and substantial policies that rebut this?

Judging by the last Labour conference, we would be entitled to think UK manufacturing was irrelevant ... and Labour if got another chance they would finish off the project they started.

Why does Labour have it in so much for UK Industry?

dmhuk2001's picture

Why not do all of the above!

frances smith's picture

deal with the high cost of living that forces people on low wages to rely on benefits to supplement their incomes, george.

cut energy costs, preferably by renationalisation, but if not by proper regulation.

bring back rent controls, with would give people more money to spend, and for those reliant on housing benefit, reduce government costs.

and then force companies with high profits to pay reasonable wages, as otherwise tax credits are just a subsidy for employers.

its only buy reducing the cost of living that you will create demand, people can't afford to live, its a ridiculous situation, how the labour party allowed this situation to occur i do not know.

over reliance on supply side economics was probably the problem, more glamorous i suppose, as they got to hang out with rich bankers and imagine they were part of some global elite.

thats my advice george, no point in economic stimuli designed to stimulate demand if all of peoples incomes is going to pay for the things that can't live without.

and that quantitative easing is a bonkers idea as it will make the situation worse. so sacking mervyn king would be a good idea, and abolishing the mpc, too, george.

Indu Pendent's picture

@John Harris

"End fractional Reserve banking". Genuine or sarcastic?

What does that do to risk? Why pass the cost of risk back to the tax payer - isnt poor reserves a the causal factor of the financial crash?

Holding gold does not mean the money is available to spend as Gordon found out.

I would advocate higher reserves to de-risk banking -- UK banks are tarnished and no longer have AAA. It would starve the money supply - so we could back fill using "UK Government Bank of Industry" to support UK manfuacturers with grants and long term low cost debt tied to productive assets and performance conditions.

mike cobley's picture

Arturo - the Coalition's main aim is, as it has been all along, to uproot and erase the final vestiges of the social democracy created by postwar Labour. There is an unstated, near-visceral hatred of the NHS and the welfare state behind the policies of this government. They wont stop until all the options of ordinary people (and the disadvantaged and the sick and the jobless) start to closely resemble those that were available before 1939.

Maureen Ramsay's picture

"End fractional reserve banking" ... sounds like some of the loonier members of the US T-Party parotting ill-digested Austrian economics ... we need a (partially) state-run banking system starting with a national investment bank. AND we need a huge, well-targeted boost to aggregate demand.

mike cobley's picture

@ Indu Pendent - "The "visceral hatred" going around is the Labour project's envious hatred of "grubby" UK Industry borne out by their oppressive policies and approach to UK makers over a long period. Disagree?"

Wow, brilliant bit of misdirection, there matey. Turning an attack on the Coalition into an attack on Nu Labour, no doubt thinking that I`ll rev up and get defending. Er, no. The Blair/Brown regime was one long exercise in slavish toadying towards the City and its associated financial and enabling sectors. True, Blairetc didnt really have much time for actual industries that made things, except for the arms industry of course. They did have oodles of time and moolah for anything that could be PFI'd out into the market, regardless of any real risk and consequences for real people working real jobs and trying to lead real lives. Ah, screw that - here, have a big juicy contract that binds the government to provide a revenue stream for the next 25-30 years.

You're quite right to point out the callous disregard for the industry of making things as evinced by this and previous governments. And we know why there no investment for such industries - the returns are low and slow compared to high frequency trading and other exotic financial procedures. Thats the core betrayal, the way the financial system has been handed over to a mob of amoral traders and hucksters. Fixing it will require nerves of steel.

Awake!'s picture

well, u certainly can't end fractianl reserve banking right now, but heading towards something along those lines would prevent maniac left governments from going on unsustainable spending splurges. Perhaps a currency based or tied to some sort of commodity basket might ensure that economies stick to a realistic 'growth' rate, rather than fiscally turbo boosted madness that Brown and clowns still advocate- there is only so much ore u can pull out the ground, timber one can curt down, soya one can harvest etc, and these physical limits should serve as the basis for rates of growth of our economy- not what some crap govt believes it can afford buying sweeties to win votes cos it's shite at anything else

Daniel's picture

Don't worry everyone, Osbourne only has a Plan A: the rich get richer while us poor people suffer as we must.

Plan A is working fine.

Dave S1's picture

Is there a Plan"A" then?

Jimbo's picture

National investment bank and printing money for the public - sounds good to me. I'm moving house soon; the money would just about cover my deposit. Thanks

Indu Pendent's picture

@mike cobley
I owe you an appology ... sorry.

Arturo Bandini's picture

With so many viable alternatives available, one wonders exactly what Gideon's motivation is...

If it is to gain a second term no matter what his policies cost the UK, this supposed political strategist may prove self-defeating.

Richard's picture

Or... Instead of giving the banks the money or the public the vouchers; simply write off individual's debts. Imagine if they actually did this!

veganpanda's picture

My plan will be to let the banks fail, I preferred the time we got paid in cash and the banks didn't rule!!

swatantra's picture

Investment Bank, Cut VAT and Direct Lending to SME.. all good.
Others would take time to implement.
Vouchers ... bad idea.

Indu Pendent's picture

@Christopher Pissarides

I agree that cutting VAT would give a short term stimulus but the economy would adjust to it. I strongly disagree about it having a long term benefit.

VAT is charged on imports and not exports so cutting VAT will make imports cheaper and cause the import/export deficit to get worse.

In the UK we have a major problem - the high proportion of incremental disposable income that is spent on imports. This kill the stimulus put into the hands of consumers which is paid over quickly to China. High VAT improves the multiplier (by recycling stimulus through tax collection) and allowing the stimulus to circulate for longer.

The price inflation from higher VAT, given the subdued employment market and wage rates, also makes labor relatively cheaper compared to other reseouces. Thus, as the exchange rate adjusts, high VAT improves the relative competitiveness of UK labor. We are actually seeing this happen.

Cutting national insurance for the lower paid is a great idea. It makes people cheaper to employ so should help create private sector jobs which would stimulate the economy in addition to putting money immediately in peoples pockets (albiet most of the NI given back to people will leak overseas quickly).

Indu Pendent's picture

@David Blanchflower:

Its a great proposal. Anything which invests in the long term in UK Industry should be taken seriously.

Luddite's picture

There's no plan B just the politics of madness.

Daniel real wages for many actually fell under our wonderful previous Labour government.

HolmWood's picture

100,000 university places = £ 4 thousand million of debt laid on these graduates [assuming debt of £40k for 3 yrs at uni] Much of this debt will never be paid back, either through graduates not earning enough during their working life or breaks for child rearing.
Exactly how much money will be written off for _all_ graduates ?
If my maths is correct, after 10 years some £77 Billion will have been loaned to students. This is hard cash paid to the universities.
Who has that kind of lending capability ? And can withstand the writeoffs for those students who don't earn enough to pay it all back during their working lives?

Eddy S's picture

We need to reallocate govt spending from admin style jobs to growth enhancing infrastructure spend. We should lower labour taxes by increasing the tax free threshold to help the lower income ranges the most, we could introduce a land tax but at the same time reduce corporation tax and income taxes, this would resources from unproductive areas like land to productive labour and capital.

PositivePete's picture

@Indu Pendent "End fractional Reserve banking... Why pass the cost of risk back to the tax payer?"

The Positive Money proposal mentioned by John Harris does not pass the risk back to the tax payer! Quite the reverse, it removes tax payer risk.

Take a look at how it works at http://www.positivemoney.org.uk/

This really is plan B. When eventually we are forced to start again with a clean sheet of paper, this is what money supply will look like.

RSD's picture

Jonathan Portes is clearly mad. He wants to allow more immigrant workers into the country when the country has failed to create enough jobs for the existing populaion -hence rising unemployment.

RSD's picture

Wadhwani's proposal is the best -if money is going to printed then give it to ordinary people not financial institutions (what gilt purchases are doing).

Wadhwani's proposal is both more effective in stimulating demand and more equitable than conventional QE. This should be definitely inacted in the event of a Eurozone break-up -as the benefits to the economy are almost immediate.

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