Labour's "economic credibility" problem
Everyone agrees that the party needs to spell out a clear alternative to the coalition's cuts -- so
By Samira Shackle Published 24 September 2011 11:46
As Labour gears up for its annual conference, the focus is, predictably, on the economy - namely, how the party can win back the public's trust. Growth may be but a distant dream, while unemployment figures offer no comfort, but the coalition's relentless message that "Labour got us into this mess" seems to have got through to the public.
The most effective line in Nick Clegg's speech to the Liberal Democrats' conference last week was when he hit back at Ed Balls' claim that the coalitions' cuts were "too far, too fast", by saying that Labour would have done "too little, too late."
The latest Guardian/ICM poll shows that only 34 per cent of voters think Labour has the right policies to rescue the economy. Even among definite Labour voters, only 66 per cent back the party's economic plans. This is despite other polls consistently showing that the public is nervous about the speed and scale of the governments' austerity measures.
What this shows is that it is not enough to point out that the economy is stalling: Labour must offer a detailed, solid plan about exactly what they would do differently.
This is a point made by Balls himself today. Discussing ways of winning back credibility in today's Guardian, he writes:
Families are not asking: "Who was right on the pace of deficit reduction?" They are asking: "Who can get Britain back on its feet?" I believe we can only win public trust by making the case for a credible and compelling plan that will revive growth, get unemployment falling, take the tough decisions to tackle the deficit in a balanced way, and transform our economy for the long term.
A new report (£) by the Fabians reiterates this point:
Saying we would cut, but not by quite as much, or that we will cut by some undetermined amount some time in the future, is not sufficient.
Everyone is agreed that Labour must produce an alternative plan to win back credibility. But this is hardly a new issue; the economy has been the dominant issue for the duration of this government and before. There is certainly a strong argument for not rushing such an important policy, but Miliband has now led the party for a full year. Labour should publish specific plans soon, and get the message out to the public. As we face the prospect of a renewed global economic crisis, there is a political opportunity for Labour -- but only if it presents a consistent, credible line tied to a concrete policy. If it waits too much longer, it may well be "too little, too late" to win back their credibility.
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30 comments
Stuart it seems your so way off the mark, I am wincing your uncomfortable post.
Let's just revisit the facts dear friend, Indu Pendent fails to back up his " argument " with a fact, unlike me.
He doesn't have the backbone to defend his own comments and the intelligence to remember them. What a awful show.
please 1% have a go i'm really in the mood for Labour's apologists
Your always in a mood Luddite, normally it is angry.
I wish you would lay off the cheap alcohol and find peace within your cold, empty heart.
All the current economic data is bad, record borrowing for Aug 11, 80,000 added to the dole queues, talking about Labour lack of credibility seems to be way of the mark.
G7 finance ministers met in France, the week before last, and they broke up without any agreement on action to solve the current global crisis.
Cameron, Clegg and Osborne have sleep walked into a crisis that needed to be solved months ago. Then again, Cameron has been busy topping up his tan.
It seems to me that local initiatives are of little use when the real dangers come from the US and Eurozone's problems.
The key here is to look at showing leadership and working with other nations -- exactly what we did in 2008.
The Labour's mess line is flimsy, most intelligent voters recognise that we face global threats - by moving the debate to leadership and coordinated action they change the terms of the debate, in the same way the focus on Growth has resonated and highlighted the one-eyed failings of the current Chancellor.
The electorate deserve more respect and a 'grown-up' plan which moves away from tribal politics and petty point-scoring and towards a credible action plan with support from political partners is much better than a plan which gets grudging support from cronies in the IMF and donors righting letters to the telegraph.
righting=writing. apologies for grammar too.
Its pointless for Labour to prduce a detailed plan because the Coalition will simply ignore it and carry on regardless until 2015 when they will face the wrath of the electorate.
Balls has spelt out the outline of the plan anyway and its up to the public to accept or reject that that outline. Thae public are not that sphisticated anyway when it comes to financial details. The Budget Books are pretty meaningless to most of us only the financial pundits understand the intricacies and journalists put it into commonspeak.
What it boils down to is who can deliver confidence in the longterm economy. Is it the novices in this Coalition or Balls with his vast experience in coping with huge economic problems. I think most would agree that Ed M inspires very little confidence.
The key also lies in America; if America goes down we go down as well whoever is in Govt.
Austerity has failed. The deficit is not and was not a problem. The coalition killed Labour's economic recovery. Getting back to it is number one priority.
This requires a large economic stimulus from the government. The deficit will increase in the short-term. This is good, not bad. It is the required medicine, a "tough decision" I think it is called.
Actually it doesn't matter a row of eans what Labour says it will do. Labour is as irrelevant as the Greens or th BNP. A the moment there is only one show in town and we've got it. And it probably dosn't matter what THEY do either. Britain is irrelevant too. The USA and the Eurozone will cock things up and we have to wait until they have finished doing that.
"The latest Guardian/ICM poll shows that only 34 per cent of voters think Labour has the right policies to rescue the economy."
Until ICM publish the full results, we won't know whether they asked the question about the other parties.
However, with dire economic news from Europe, the USA and the UK, it's unlikely that any politician anywhere would be credited with having "the right policies to rescue the economy".
@matt
Fox, when you hid away and did not scrutinise your friends, are you sure they did not pull the fox fury over your eyes?
Have you been reading the breaking news about how Ed Balls "sexed up" the treasury forecasts so that the government could borrow more before 2008 against fabricated data?
I always knew there was corruption involved to Labours fiscal policy. And now we might potentially find criminal corruption.
You never did answer my question - should borrowing be increased or decreased (in other ways is EM or EB your leader).
@Hal
"Austerity has failed"
What austerity? The UK has not yet implemented austerity measures e.g. most of the deficit savings are coming from reducing the rate of recruitment into the public sector - there is no major cutting or redundancies.
UK people simply do not appreciate how well off they are and are taking it for granted.
Yes Labour has a problem, it has been defined as a party of economic incompetence,financial profligacy ans recession. The fact that Ed Balls had intimate involvement in the discredited economic policies of the last goverment and for that man to still be there is a fatal weakness of the shadow cabernet and one that all the promises and reforms in the world will not change.
It is also wrong for Ed Miliband to refuse to condemn the economic mistakes of the last goverment- how will he learn! Ed miliband remains in his comfort zone throwing stones at the goverment,at the same time remaining quiet about what he would do,he remains vague and uninterested, shadow cabernets in the past were allowed to remain quiet but considering the last goverment was responsible for the majority of the problems we have that is a luxury they cannot have, you earn trust! there mantra of too far too fast as Nick Clegg said should be replaced with too slow too late. At least George osborne has a plan and im sure he will take a diversion if he needs to, Ed has a blank page,Ed Balls and a sack full of stones to throw at the Goverment aimed at every reform even ones started by Labour themselves!
Indu Pendent, if you could supply evidence that Legarde and the credit rating agencies have criticised the public sector pensions, you might be in a position to comment.
Don't forget, Sir Alan Budd, the first head of the OBR, had to apologise for rushing out some very favourable jobless forecasts in Jun 10.
The OBR record for forecasting is appalling, and has been designed to help out the Conservative Party.
Would you like to know what the OBR forecast for economic growth 2011 was?
We can then look at the OBR's bad jobless forecast.
Month in month out, the OBR predictions for jobs losses in the public sector, have been way off target.
Why does the taxpayer have to keep ponying up for such failure?
H3TT WESamira shows such political naivity, it is troubling.
Samira, parties in opposition do not publish, as you put; 'a detailed, solid plan about exactly what they would do differently'. They provide an outline of their policies until the elections are eminent.
Cameron did exactly the same. Their policy announcements were mostlt Labour policies leaked to them by the well known 'Traitors' in the Labour cabinet who were then trying to undermine Brown. Unfortunately the lazy press repeated the Tories talking points; that Labour stealing their ideas.
Samira, please stop repeating the DEM-CONS's talking points and stop undermining the Labour leadership.
Fine wine please. So 1% Labour will not reverse the coalitions cuts. So now the Labour party publicly admits there's no plan B. So that makes Labour party politicians liars, so who can possibly trust such a party? after all this is all about trust and "economic credibility" By the way i do care, thats the reason i don't want to see Labour anywhere near that little red box's...
Despite this being a two-tone government most of the hard-core policies being put into place are Tory in origin and are being implemented with thorough Conservative ruthlessness.
The Lib|Dems are plainly the hind-quarters of this pantomime horse of a government.
Rather surprisingly the Tory High Command and its LibDem orderlies ( not batman - as there is bound to be a misunderstanding ) keep trotting out Lord Keynes oldput-down. "When the facts change I change my mind. What do you do?"
Obviously, this is used by the right as a prod to irritate the Labour side and cause them to blurt out their economic policy and response to the 'cuts'. Correct rejoinder.
"Certainly not what you're doing!" When pressed - "Never stop your opponent when they are making a mistake! And don't give them the solution!"
Conservative polices and Liberal excuses. Something of an inalienable contradiction; but then just think of the Euro and its pros and cons.
Hard Ball
@matt
"Sir Alan Budd, the first head of the OBR, had to apologise for rushing out some very favourable jobless forecasts "
So Budd got his estimates wrong, all done in the open, got criticised for it, appologised, improved and now the process is better. It will carry on like this getting better because people like you are given the opportunity to critise him. Its about independence, objectivity, transparency and accountability. Which of these words do people associate with Labour?
Tell me Foxy, do you think at anytime in a 1,000 year reicht that
Labour will appologies for its corrupt practice of sexing up treasury forecasts with the intention of deceiving people? All done with public money for manipulating sections of the population.
We are learning now about the filthy secrets behind how Labour borrowed and pissed away £350Bn before 2008 as well as the reason which we already knew.
So, Foxy - be a dog and not a pup and tell us which side of the split in Labour are you on - behind Ed posh boy or Ed jack boots?
"Everyone agrees that the party needs to spell out a clear alternative to the coalition's cuts"
God, I luv that sentence: shows how inbred the NS hacks are.
Er, I don't. Labour deliberately created this bloated, inefficient, massively over manned public sector as a YTS scheme and as a source of clientelist Labour voters.
Cut, baby cut.
Still trying to dodge your own posts Indu Pendent?
You talk of Legarde and the credit rating agencies criticising public sector pension, yet fail to supply any evidence.
Moving on the Sir Alan Budd, he left is disgrace, only seeing out his initial 3 month term.
Initially the OBR forecasted job losses of 800,000 but then by magic, decided to say only 500,000 job losses would occur, just hours before PMQs in Jun 2010.
Unfortunately the OBR decide to dig a bigger hole in Nov 2010, by declaring only 330,000 jobs would be lost up t0 2015.
Yet the madness continues, the OBR forecasted public sector job losses of 20,000 for 2011, however in the last year, we have lost 250,000 public sector jobs.
If the process is " so better " why did the OBR miscalculate by a factor 10?
Moving on to the economic forecasts, at the moment, we are schedule to grow by 1.7% for 2011, however, this is probably going to be downgraded.
In Jun 2010, the OBR predicted economic growth of 2.6% for 2011, and 2.8% for 2012, again if the process has been revised, why are they so out?
I have never forgotten the dirty secret of Major and Thatcher spending £350 Billion of North Sea Oil money, and borrowing hundreds of billions on top, how does that work again?
labour had good credibility in the early years when he was known as the iron chancellor, but after a few years he went off the rails, the goal posts of the golden rules were changed to suit. they had the best circumstances and backdrop i.e. one of the largest and longest housing and finance booms in living memory.
what labour need to do is provide cast iron guarantee's that we will follow the golden rules, we won't change the rules and we will run budget surpluses in good times so that when the bad times come we can whether the storms better.
the other thing is we need transparency we don't want the gov't to follow sneaky off balance sheet accounting practices such as PFI, we want future pension liabilities included in the debt figures etc.
Labour's "economic credibility" problem will not go away with Ed Ball's still in the frame.
Mr Balls was instrumental in hiking up spending beyond sensible levels which resulted in a substantial waste of public money. Everyone agrees that the party needs to spell out a clear alternative to the coalition's cuts. So what did Mr Miliband propose, a hike in corporation tax, which is in affect, simply a tax on jobs. That's the last thing our economy needs. Milliband went on to promise a cut in tuition fees same old Labour the electorate will say. Tax and squander. No change there! What Labour needs is a clarity of purpose. We simply didn't have that with this present leadership.
Richard Albright wrote, "...corporation tax, which is in affect (sic), simply a tax on jobs."
No, increasing Employers' NI would, for example, arguably be a tax on jobs.
However, no employer is going to refuse to employ someone profitably because of corporation tax.
For example, if a new employee generates £100,000 of wealth and costs £60,000 to employ, then the tax the employer might pay on the £40,000 surplus is a tertiary consideration.
All taxes companies pay is a tax on jobs, whether that's business rates corporation tax or national insurance tax. We all fully understand the need to pay tax, but were Labour fails is, in the credibility rating on how to spend them taxes wisely, and for the long term good of all. Simply taxing the productive part of our economy in order to inflate the pubic sector is no longer a affordable, and Ed Milliband should be honest enough to say that.
Dave C!! how's about letting the workers enjoy their own 'tertiary' part of their own endeavors? doesn't the left have a saying that all profit is theft? If that's the case isn't TAX a form of state theft?
matthew fox
It's you who are dodging answering Indu Pendent's question.
The sad fact is that mostly people have looked at Ed Balls and would rather not vote for a party that he belongs to, get rid.
No Stuart, you must understand Indu Pendent writes self inflicted howlers.
The stupid fool keeps writing blatant untruths, he talks about Lagarde and the credit rating agencies criticising public sector pensions, he can't produce on the record, evidence showing this, Stuart, are you telling me it is okay to write something which is a lie?
But moving swiftly on, Indu Pendent talked about Osborne only borrowing £100 Billion in his first year. Poor Indu Pendent I mean he was only £50 Billion out but for some strange reason, I had to point out this schoolboy error.
Unfortunately it isn't amateur hour, if you want to back up someone with Walter Mitty tendencies, more fool you Eel's old chap.
Hello 1%. Walter Mitty tendencies flow from your mouth. It's often said. Empty vessels make the most noise. "But moving swiftly on" So what exactly did New Labour do for hard working folk's? Answers on a postcard!! Look here 1% after doing jack-shit for industry Milliband starts farting on about investing in the future. Now in all honesty who's going to take Labour seriously with Ed Ball's looking over Gonzo's shoulder's. The same Ed Balls that was so instrumental in hiking up spending beyond sensible levels which resulted in a substantial waste of public money.
matthew fox
No no no my dear young fellow, I never said I wished to back him up, I just asked you to answer him and not do the very thing you accuse him of.
I do however believe that Ed Balls is an instant turn-off to the the very large floating voters out there.