Blow for Cameron as net migration rises to 239,000

The PM will struggle to meet his pledge to reduce net migration to "tens of thousands" a year.

David Cameron memorably promised to reduce net migration from "the hundreds of thousands to the tens of thousands" by the end of this parliament. But the latest figures suggest that this will prove a Sisyphean task. Rather than falling, net migration is rising.

Estimates from the ONS show that net migration to Britain rose by 21 per cent to 239,000 last year, driven by a big fall in emigration (although Sky News leads with the erroneous claim that "immigration" is up to 239,000).The number of people leaving Britain to live abroad for more than 12 months was 336,000 in 2010, the lowest figure since June 2005. Thus, as Sunder Katwala quips, the government would have a better chance of hitting its target if it persuaded more Britons to leave (something George Osborne's economic policies may yet achieve).

Long-term immigration was 575,000, similar to the levels seen since 2004. The number of people coming from outside Europe to work with a definite job offer is at its lowest since 2004 at 110,000. However, immigration from within the EU, which is not subject to the coalition's immigration cap, rose to 39,000 in 2010, compared with 5,000 in 2009. It's unambiguously bad news for the Tories. So long as immigration from eastern Europe remains high and emigration remains low, both trends which ministers have no control over, Cameron cannot hope to meet his pledge.

With 69 per cent of new jobs going to foreign nationals, the migration cap was seen as an important supplement to Iain Duncan Smith's welfare reforms. But as the ippr's Matt Cavanagh wrote yesterday on The Staggers, it's now clear that the coalition cannot rely on the cap to reduce youth unemployment. The question now is whether the it will impose even more stringent restrictions on immigration or rethink its jobs strategy.

Update: The Sky News website has now removed its misleading claim that "immigration" is up to 239,000.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

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Tory Brexiter Daniel Hannan: Leave campaign never promised "radical decline" in immigration

The voters might not agree...

BBC Newsnight on Twitter

It was the Leave campaign's pledge to reduce EU immigration that won it the referendum. But Daniel Hannan struck a rather different tone on last night's Newsnight. "It means free movement of labour," the Conservative MEP said of the post-Brexit model he envisaged. An exasperated Evan Davis replied: “I’m sorry we’ve just been through three months of agony on the issue of immigration. The public have been led to believe that what they have voted for is an end to free movement." 

Hannan protested that EU migrants would lose "legal entitlements to live in other countries, to vote in other countries and to claim welfare and to have the same university tuition". But Davis wasn't backing down. "Why didn't you say this in the campaign? Why didn't you say in the campaign that you were wanting a scheme where we have free movement of labour? Come on, that's completely at odds with what the public think they have just voted for." 

Hannan concluded: "We never said there was going to be some radical decline ... we want a measure of control". Your Mole suspects many voters assumed otherwise. If immigration is barely changed, Hannan and others will soon be burned by the very fires they stoked. 

I'm a mole, innit.