The Staggers

The New Statesman’s rolling politics blog

Blow for Cameron as net migration rises to 239,000

The PM will struggle to meet his pledge to reduce net migration to "tens of thousands" a year.

By George Eaton Published 25 August 2011 12:53

David Cameron memorably promised to reduce net migration from "the hundreds of thousands to the tens of thousands" by the end of this parliament. But the latest figures suggest that this will prove a Sisyphean task. Rather than falling, net migration is rising.

Estimates from the ONS show that net migration to Britain rose by 21 per cent to 239,000 last year, driven by a big fall in emigration (although Sky News leads with the erroneous claim that "immigration" is up to 239,000).The number of people leaving Britain to live abroad for more than 12 months was 336,000 in 2010, the lowest figure since June 2005. Thus, as Sunder Katwala quips, the government would have a better chance of hitting its target if it persuaded more Britons to leave (something George Osborne's economic policies may yet achieve).

Long-term immigration was 575,000, similar to the levels seen since 2004. The number of people coming from outside Europe to work with a definite job offer is at its lowest since 2004 at 110,000. However, immigration from within the EU, which is not subject to the coalition's immigration cap, rose to 39,000 in 2010, compared with 5,000 in 2009. It's unambiguously bad news for the Tories. So long as immigration from eastern Europe remains high and emigration remains low, both trends which ministers have no control over, Cameron cannot hope to meet his pledge.

With 69 per cent of new jobs going to foreign nationals, the migration cap was seen as an important supplement to Iain Duncan Smith's welfare reforms. But as the ippr's Matt Cavanagh wrote yesterday on The Staggers, it's now clear that the coalition cannot rely on the cap to reduce youth unemployment. The question now is whether the it will impose even more stringent restrictions on immigration or rethink its jobs strategy.

Update: The Sky News website has now removed its misleading claim that "immigration" is up to 239,000.

Special Offer: Get 12 issues of New Statesman magazine for just £12

Tags: Immigration

More from George Eaton

20 comments

Thu, 2011-08-25 13:21 — Marcus (not verified)

To compete they beleive our population needs to rise substantially.

Doesn't make it right or proper that politicians should do this without asking us and in our name, but happen it is.

Perhaps it would be good to have a national debate a little like what Ron Paul is attempting in the US. A debate over what we, the great unwashed actually want.

Fri, 2011-08-26 12:41 — Mr. Divine (not verified)

@bego: yes you're right, British culture will go if you have too many too soon. Would it not be matter to let a few into our great culture?

Thu, 2011-08-25 13:38 — swatantra nandanwar

Well thats another Coalition Policy to bite the dust.
Nearly every other person you stop on the streets for directions these days is a East European and its getting impossible to get to your destination without resorting to a satnav, which I am still determined not to do.
Looks like the East Europeans are buying into Dave's Big Society with some enthusiasm.

Fri, 2011-08-26 12:42 — Mr. Divine (not verified)

@bego: that should be better!

Thu, 2011-08-25 14:36 — Mr. Divine (not verified)

I think Britain should take in at least 2 million immigrants per year. There are many poor people in the Third World that can benefit from British wealth. Why shouldn't people be allowed to move where they want?

Thu, 2011-08-25 14:48 — Dave C (not verified)

Swatantra wrote, "Nearly every other person you stop on the streets for directions these days is an East European..."

One of the local alcoholic beggars has had a similar problem. Now his first line is "Do you speak English?" I always say No, which enrages him immensely.

Thu, 2011-08-25 15:22 — @bego (not verified)

'Why shouldn't people be allowed to move where they want?'

Because British culture will collapse.

Fri, 2011-08-26 14:50 — Thomas Devine

The Bristish Corperate Bosses, like the American Corperate Bosses, seem to believe that hiring non-natives will get them a meek and docile workforce. That will backfire.

However, Britain seems to be stuck in the same trap as the USA in that the Left is deaf to the fact that the workers suffer from immigration. Sure the top tier benefits, and in standard ecconomic theory, society benefits, but the workers suffer all the costs.

If the Left fails to respect the real pains of the workers, they will feel forced to embrace the Hard Right!

Stop adding to the discourse that renders 'the other' a prob's picture

Thu, 2011-08-25 15:51 — Stop adding to the discourse that renders 'the other' a prob (not verified)

There are 61 million people (approximately) in the UK- the overwhelming majority are not immigrants. 239 thousand is a pretty small number to be worrying about when put into perspective. Go on express 239 thousand out of 61 million as a percentage; you may be surprised.

Thu, 2011-08-25 16:30 — Mrs,M L Bonwick-Jones (not verified)

After 13 years of our open door policy
' oh dear there are a lot of people living here' it will take far more then 13 months to deal with this, besides we can only put a cap in immigration to control it in the future, you cannot chuck people out of the country, although why anyone would want to live here is beyond me.

Thu, 2011-08-25 17:10 — Marcus (not verified)

I am not anti immigration, but i do believe the country and the world has far too many people. If you take the current population centers in the UK then we should be looking to reduce the numbers living in them by some 66%

I agree with David Attenborough on population. We infest this planet and things have hit a tipping point. We are now killing it.

Survival of not just our species, but of the global ecosystem needs us to quit breeding quite so much.

Maybe if there was under 1 billion humans then we would have more room, a better quality of life and be happier.

Fri, 2011-08-26 17:07 — drib (not verified)

'immigrants account for around 0.25-35% of the population.'

That may be the incoming amount but the effects are cumalitive: There are already 2 million blacks in London and prolonged: There is a higher birthrate

The 'liberalism' loved by the left will collapse due to cultural and econcomic collapse caused by mass immigration.

Violence is not the solution.

Peaceful repatriation by primary legislation is.

We must fight neoliberalism and international financiers.

Not each other.

@Mr. Divine
[British cultural collapse] that should be better!

No it shouldn't.

Fri, 2011-08-26 18:09 — Livers (not verified)

@Mr Divine.

Bravo. We are all humans on this rock. Why shouldn't people be free to move around it?

The immigration "issue" is just a polite form of racism (and that is a deliberate oxymoron).

So long as everyone pays taxes and abides by the laws good luck to em.

And please, no 'they come here and get all the benefits' crap without some hard numbers ..

Thu, 2011-08-25 18:01 — Stuart Eels (not verified)

Stop adding to the discourse that renders the 'other' a problem.

Well as Radio 5 have just expressed it it's the size of Southampton's population being added each year. It doesn't look too clever then does it?

I'm in agreement with Marcus, the world just can't support current population numbers.

Thu, 2011-08-25 19:32 — Matt Thompson (not verified)

And dont you lefties just love it? Multi Kulti Utopia innit sortathing. To challenge this issue is racist remember and makes you as bad as hitler. Im afraid the EU needs to disband. It will destroy the economies and the cultures of all of its wealthier nations. Although that is probably the underlying aim. You see skilled migration to provide a country with something that it needs to do a job is one thing, I work with such individuals and they are very professional and knowledgeable but this is plain madness. Expect civil unrest when the NEETs rise. Record GCSEs may provide a feel good factor but it wont give them a job. It is these migrants that they will have to compete against and the odds are stacked against you. I feel sorry for our young people now, it is almost a sin to be English these days.

Fri, 2011-08-26 23:23 — Indu Pendent (not verified)

I have no issue with immigration providing it supports the strategic national interest and is what the indigenous people want.

Take a look at Michael Meacher and the teams's Oldham and the full contribution Labour has made accumulated over 4 decades to social engineering of the town. A success (google it and form your own view)? There might be lessons to learn about managing immigration and community integration rather than treating it as a dirty subject or something for social experimentation. I'm not sure I would ever again seek advice from Labour on anything to do with immigration and my kids best interest.

The reason we have lost all control over our boarders is by choice - people voted for the elite who permanently signed away boarder control. The same people can only blame themselves although we all have to live with the consequences.

An observation is that of the net 239k we are
- swapping skilled higher earners often management grade and IT professionals for lower unskilled people. Hence value is being eroded from the UK workforce
- swapping tax payers for a significant proportion of people who go into the black economy
- displacing people out of jobs onto the dole queue

The true accumulative cost of the disaster of UK boarder permeability is running into £10s of Billions each year. Labour's long time stance that the Polish immigrants are driving growth in the economy and the more we have the wealthier we will all be is pure ideological spin with no commercial substance - its to excuse the collossal mistakes the last government made that they know would be electorial suicide to admit.

Fri, 2011-08-26 23:33 — Indu Pendent (not verified)

@liver
"no 'they come here and get all the benefits' crap without some hard numbers"

Since its you contention that immigration is pumping up the economy, please can you provide data to refute the common sense presumption that the 239k net are not displacing people out of jobs onto the dole queue therefore resulting in increase state welfare costs.

Thu, 2011-08-25 20:18 — chairman_moo (not verified)

Where's Mr: "How has immigration benefited the white working classes"? Surprise he hasn't got involved here yet.

Or is he only on day release at the moment?

As a previous comment astutely notes, immigrants account for around 0.25-35% of the population. In context, the 239,000 figure is just under quarter of the number of births recorded in the UK every year (around 710,000).

If people, as seems to be so often the case in these comments, are concerned (rightly) with overpopulation, it makes far more sense to stop subsidising having children and start offering incentives to people who don't.

Immigrants contribute to the economy upon arrival. Children don't.